Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae / Santi Roars Passed Manila (video)

Storm chaser video posted by James Reynolds and Jim Edds:

Tropical Storm Mirinae heading for Vietnam

Tropical Storm Mirinae has entered the South China Sea (East Sea) on a west to WSW heading towards the southern region of Vietnam. The storm has picked up speed and is expected to make landfall by Monday morning local time.

Storm Mirinae enters East Sea (VOV News)

After pounding the Philippines on October 31, typhoon Mirinae weakened into a tropical storm and entered the East Sea, becoming the 11th storm in the region.

At 16.00 on October 31, the storm was centred at 14.2 degrees north latitude and 118.2 degrees east longitude, packing winds of between 89-102km/h near its centre. In the next 24 hours it is forecast to move between west and south-west at a speed of 20-25km/h and weaken further.

At 13.00 on November 1, Mirinae is positioned 530km east of the south-central coast from Binh Dinh to Khanh Hoa provinces. Its force winds extend outward from the center to as far as 84km/h.

The storm will bring heavy rains and cause rough seas along the central coast in a couple of days, according to the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Centre.

Mosts forecasts are showing that Mirinae will continue to weaken as it approaches Vietnam. Once the storm makes landfall its strength will diminish to a tropical depression and finally dissipate over Cambodia.

TS Mirinae leaves death in its wake as it exits Philippines

Tropical storm Mirinae exited the Philippines this afternoon local time having moved across the island fairly rapidly. Even so, 6 - 12 people were killed at current estimates. The reson for these deaths is not clear to me. At least one person died from drowning and one from extreme cold. Whether the others are due to flooding or due to wind damage and flying debris is not clear from the reports I've read.

'Santi' weakens into a tropical storm, leaves at least 12 dead (GMA News)

At least 12 people were reported dead due to tropical cyclone Santi (international name: Mirinae), which has weakened into a tropical storm as it moves farther away from the country on Saturday afternoon.

As Santi exits the country, only Lubang Island located northwest of Mindoro remains under Storm Signal No. 1.

Three people were killed and five others remain missing in Laguna, the province’s disaster coordinating council said.

Two of the fatalities were identified as Julieta Tagili and Margie Etaquino, both residents of Pagsanjan town in Laguna.Seven more deaths were reported in the Bicol region, one in Catanduanes and six in Camarines Norte.

According to Region 5 Disaster Coordinating Council Director Bernardo Alejandro, one of the fatalities from Camarines Norte died due to extreme cold, while the one from Catanduanes drowned in the floods caused by Santi.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), meanwhile, said in a radio interview that two more unidentified persons were reported killed in Muntinlupa City, also due to drowning.

The area has been inundated with tropical cyclones over the past month. Now as the region begins recovery once again, there are reports that disturbed weather may be developing into new storms that could menace the area further.

Santi exits Philippines;2 more storms brewing (Business World)

TYPHOON Santi (international name:Mirinae) is forecast to exit the Philippines Sunday morning as it moves towards the South China sea, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Saturday.

In its 4 p.m. report, the weather bureau said Santi, with peak winds of 105 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 135 kph, is moving west at 20 kph and is continuing to move away from the country.

The storm is forecast at 670 km west-southwest of the capital Sunday afternoon. Storm signal 1 is still up over Lubang island.

The weather bureau has lowered storm signals in most of Luzon Saturday afternoon as the typhoon weakened into a tropical storm.


At least two more storms coming

In a briefing on Saturday, PAGASA administrator Prisco T. Nilo said the weather bureau expects at least two tropical cyclones to enter Philippine waters until December.

He said it is monitoring cloud formations over the Pacific Ocean which might develop into an active low pressure in the coming days.

Mr. Nilo said it is now safe to travel by land to northern and Central Luzon.

There is very minimal possibility for Santi to make a "u-turn", he said. International and local flights were allowed as of 10 a.m. Saturday.

Mr. Cruz, however, warned of storm surges in the western coast of the mainland.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Landfall knocks the wind out of Mirinae

Typhoon Mirinae is not a tropical storm shortly after making landfall on the east coast of central Luzon. Indication is that much of the convection around the storm center has dissipated and while there is still circulation around its center, there is very little likelihood that the storm will strengthen.

Public Advisory from Weather Underground

302100z position near 14.3n 121.0e.
Tropical storm 23w (mirinae), located approximately 90 nm east-southeast of Manila, Philippines has tracked westward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Mirinae has been downgraded to tropical storm strength. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows ts 23w has moved over the eastern coast of Luzon, with a large decrease in convection near the low level circulation center (LLCC). A 301710zAMSR-E pass shows tightly curved banding continuing to wrap into the northern portion of the LLCC, however, deep convection along the eastern half of ts 23w has started to dissipate. Land influences have weakened the system dramatically over the past 06 hours (from85 to 55 knots).

Advisory from Typhoons 2000 on Tropical Storm Mirinae (Santi/23W)

MIRINAE (SANTI) shrinks and weakened into a Tropical Storm while traversing Southern Tagalog Provinces. The weakening core made landfall over Mauban, Quezon around 2 AM...and is now over Tagaytay City...expected to pass over Nasugbu, Batangas in the next few hours. Strong winds and rainfall are just concentrated over Batangas.

Forecast Outlook: The weakening core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected to weaken further as it emerge over the South China Sea later after passing Batangas. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MIRINAE accelerating towards Vietnam while cruising the South China Sea as a strong tropical storm.

It will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday, November 02.

As quickly as this storm is moving, Mirinae may pass over Luzon by late tomorrow which is good news for the region. The last thing that is needed in Manila is a slow moving storm. If Mirinae's forward motion continues at the current pace of 16 knots or faster then the storm will pass quickly over the island and will soon be crossing the South China Sea (Known in Vietnam as the East Sea).

Mirinae is expected to remain at tropical storm strngth as it crosses the East Sea and then dissipate as it makes landfall in southern Vietnam crossing into Cambodia.

Storm Mirinae to head towards south-central region (VOV News)

The south-central coast is bracing itself for tropical storm Mirinae which is moving towards the East Sea and is forecast to hit south-central provinces in a couple of days.

According to the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Centre, in the next 24 hours the storm is forecast to move between west and south-west at a speed of 20-25km/h. It will enter the East Sea on the morning of October 31 and cause rough seas.

Mirinae strikes the Philippines

Typhoon Mirinae struck the Philippine island of Luzon this morning (Saturday) local time as a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 90 mph (145 km/hr) according to the Associated Press. The storm is bringing heavy rain to metro Manila where some areas are still flooded.

Typhoon Mirinae hits Philippines (Al Jazeera)

Typhoon Mirinae has made landfall in eastern Philippines, and is approaching Manila, the capital.

Officials said on Friday that thousands of people have been evacuated from Manila in expectation of the advance of the fourth typhoon to hit the country in the last two months.

Areas of the capital with more than a million residents remain flooded from the recent storms, in which more than 1,000 people died.

Typhoon Mirinae, a category two typhoon with winds of up to 185 kms an hour, is expected to bring heavy showers.

Residents were evacuated from coastal regions as well as metropolitan areas as Mirinae came ashore.

Philippines Orders Evacuations as Typhoon Strikes (Bloomberg)

Philippine authorities carried out evacuations and airlines moved planes to safer locations as Typhoon Mirinae slammed into the archipelago, where about 1,100 people have died in cyclones this year.

Evacuations were ordered in the island province of Catanduanes and the coastal areas of Quezon province, where Mirinae’s eye made landfall, police and disaster agency officials said. The Associated Press said the storm, which came ashore just after midnight, had winds of about 90 mph (145 kph), and was on the same path as a September storm that submerged parts of the capital, Manila.

Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific Air, the nation’s biggest carriers, canceled or delayed flights to and from Manila and said they had moved aircraft to central airports, away from the typhoon’s path. Thousands were stranded as the government banned vessels from taking to sea, according to the Coast Guard.

Mirinae is the 4th typhoon to lash at the northern half of Luzon in the past month but is also the 5th storm to make landfall in this time as Parma crossed three times over the same area. The previous storm to threaten the area, Lupit, made a remarkable U-turn just as it approached the coast. It never made landfall but did dump a fair amount of rain on some of the northern islands before heading to the north and hitting Okinawa.

4th typhoon in month lashes struggling Philippines (USA Today)
The fourth typhoon to lash the Philippines in a month brought pounding rain and winds to the eastern coast early Saturday as it barreled toward Manila along the same path as an earlier storm that left the capital still partially submerged.

Thousands were evacuated from their homes in the eastern province of Quezon, where Typhoon Mirinae made landfall after midnight, as rains threatened to unleash mudslides.

In Manila, residents hunkered down in their homes as rains beat down on dark, deserted streets. The typhoon was expected to pass south of the sprawling city of 12 million later Saturday morning with winds of 93 miles per hour and gusts of up to 115 mph, said chief government forecaster Nathaniel Cruz.

Mirinae was tracking the same route as Tropical Storm Ketsana on Sept. 26 when it dumped the heaviest rains in 40 years in and around Manila — a month's worth in just 12 hours — leaving hundreds dead and thousands stranded in cars, on rooftops and in trees.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon MIRINAE

Mirinae is closing in on Luzon Island with the probablilities for landfall increasing significantly.
Typhoon 2000 ( forecast outlook is as follows:
MIRINAE's forecast outlook remained slightly the same...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon on Saturday. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 180 km. North of Naga City around 11 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass close to Polillo Island around 6 AM Saturday and make landfall between Infanta, Quezon and Baler, Aurora around 9 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Nueva Ecija around 10 AM - passing very close to Cabanatuan City and will move across Tarlac around noontime...and over the Zambales Mountains around 4 PM Saturday. On Sunday, November 01, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea and will make its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. This system will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03.
MIRINAE's convective circulation has regenerated and strengthening as it moves closer to Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The outer rainbands of MIRINAE has started to spread slowly across the Bicol Region - deteriorating today as the typhoon approaches. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae.
The concerns include flooding, especially in areas both within city limits and surrounding areas that are still flooded from earlier typhoons. Mudslides and flash floods are also anticipated on steep slopes. Possible storm surge flooding of 6 - 8 feet above normal tideas along the coast are expected.

Storm Alert from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued at 29 Oct, 2009 18:00 GMT
Typhoon MIRINAE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Typhoon Mirinae (Santi) threatens Manila

Forecasts for Typhoon Santi (internationally named Mirinae), continue to shift from the storm passing over the northern part of Luzon to it making a direct hit on metro Manila. Either way, the difference will not be significant and the city has been warned to expect heavy rain beginning tomorrow (Friday).

Pagasa expects intense `Santi’ before it hits land Saturday (Inquirer)

Residents in storm-weary Luzon were told to prepare for Typhoon Santi (international name: Mirinae) which is expected to make landfall Saturday, with rain forecast for flood-ravaged Metro Manila.

Santi, packing maximum sustained winds of up to 150 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 185 kph, was expected to intensify before it slams into Aurora province on Saturday afternoon, the state weather bureau Pagasa said.

"We should expect Santi to become a very intense typhoon in the next several hours or days," Pagasa spokesman Nathaniel Cruz said.

Storm signals have been hoisted over 16 Luzon provinces and residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes with storm signals were told to take precautionary easures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

People in coastal villages were warned of possible storm surges and big waves which might be triggered by the typhoon.

This typhoon has also been difficult to predict its eventual intensity at landfall. Earlier predictions indicated that Mirinae would be a Category 3 typhoon as it made landfall. Forecasts for the past 24 hours have been steady with Mirinae remaining at Category 2 strength, which is its current strength level. Even so, Philippine authorities are warning residents to prepare for a severe storm.

'Santi' intensifies, to bring heavy rains to 18 northern provinces (Philippine Star)

MANILA, Philippines (Xinhua) -- The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has placed 3 areas under storm signal number two and 15 areas under signal number one as typhoon "Santi" intensified and continued moving toward Luzon, northern Philippines.

In a weather bulletin issued Thursday afternoon, Pagasa has placed Aurora , Northern Quezon and Polillo islands under storm signal number two. The following provinces are placed under storm signal number one: Isabela, Ifugao, Quirino, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes.

Typhoon "Santi" is expected to bring more rain and have winds more powerful than typhoon "Pepeng" which battered northern Luzon early this month.

Typhoon Santi threatening to hit Central Luzon, Metro Manila (Business World)
TYPHOON SANTI (international name: Mirinae) is expected to make landfall over Aurora-northern Quezon tomorrow morning, with Metro Manila experiencing stormy weather Friday night and Central Luzon likely bearing the brunt, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) said yesterday.

"Santi is moving west at 20 kilometers per hour (kph) and increases its threat to Central Luzon" according to the weather bureau’s 5 p.m. forecast, said PAGASA chief forecaster Nathaniel A. Cruz in a press briefing.

The bureau, which does not see Santi changing its path compared to typhoon Pepeng (Parma) and Ramil (Lupit) due to a high pressure area at the South China Sea, may consider raising storm signal 3 over Metro Manila Friday evening, he added.

For his part, PAGASA administrator Prisco D. Nilo noted in the same event that the high pressure area could push Santi to a south-southwest path, directly hitting the capital. "The high pressure area controls the movement of the Santi."

The storm, with peak winds of 150 kph and gusts of up to 185 kph, is forecast at 360 kilometers (km) east of Baler, Aurora this afternoon, Mr. Cruz said, with the eye forecast at 90 km north of Manila Saturday afternoon.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Mirinae strengthens to typhoon

Typhoon Mirinae now has sustained winds of of 95 MPH with gusts as high as 120 MPH. As the graphic above shows, all agencies have projected that the track of this storm will continue essentially due west and cross around the center of Luzon just to the north of Manila. Landfall is expected over the weekend.

Typhoon threatens to hit land on Nov. 1 (Philippine Daily Inquirer)

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the storm—internationally designated as “Mirinae”—had developed into a typhoon with peak winds of 140 kilometers per hour gusting up to 170 kph.

At 10 p.m. Wednesday, PAGASA located Mirinae in the Pacific 1,210 km east of Central Luzon, moving west at 24 kph.

Forecaster Robert Sawi said that Mirinae—locally named “Santi” as it entered the Philippine area of responsibility late Wednesday—was likely to hit northern or central Luzon on Saturday.

“There will be lots of rain when the storm comes,” Sawi said.

He said that based on the erratic nature of previous storms, Mirinae could slow down. It is unlikely to change course, he said, because of a high-pressure area north of the country.

“That ridge is serving like an umbrella blocking a northward course,” he said.

The timing of Mirinae's landfall has officials very concerned. November 1 is the Roman Catholic feast of All Saint's Day. It is tradition in the Philippines for people to visit the gravesites of their lost relatives on this day. The government is asking people to go early to the cemetary - maybe Thursday or Friday - to avoid being trapped by heavy flooding.

New typhoon could spoil Philippines' tradition to honour dead (Earth Times)

Manila - The Philippine government on Wednesday advised Filipinos against flocking to cemeteries to honour their dead on the weekend when a new typhoon could hit the country. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Typhoon Mirinae was forecast to hit Friday night or Saturday when Filipinos were expected to start trooping to the provinces ahead of All Saint's Day.

All Saint's Day on November 1 is the traditional day for Filipinos to visit the graves of their dead. Tens of thousands even stay overnight in the cemeteries.

"Let us avoid visiting our relatives at the cemeteries and if they really need to make a visit, we can do it earlier, before Sunday," Teodoro said. He said the government was making the early warning to ensure that the public was prepared.
"We see difficulties if our countrymen are not aware of the coming typhoon and they are planning to visit their relatives at the cemeteries," he said.

"They may be trapped there and this may cause traffic congestion in the streets ... and may delay the response and relief efforts that may be needed to be done," he added.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Tropical Storm Mirinae continues to strengthen

TS #23 was named today as Tropical Storm Mirinae. Mirinae was originally forecast to pass to the north of Guam but instead shifted even further north crossing near Rota, Saipan and Tinian.

Tropical storm passes north of Rota, not Guam (Pacific Daily News)

A small tropical storm that was forecast to pass just north of Guam instead passed north of Rota yesterday morning, said National Weather Service meteorologist Clint Simpson yesterday.

Parts of northern Guam may have felt some 30 mph gusts and heavy showers, but that is not abnormal on any day, he said.

Rota, Saipan and Tinian felt stronger winds, he said.

"This is another situation where, here on Guam we should ... count our blessings that the storm was far enough away that it did not have a heavy impact on our community," Simpson said. "If it had been 20 or 30 miles south of its original track, it would have been a very noticeable and even could have caused some local damage."

Mirinae continued to strengthen today reaching sustained winds in excess of 50 MPH. Intensity predictions earlier today showed a steady increase in windspeed until the storm made landfall with Category 3 strength winds. Current indications are that there may be a slight weakening of Mirinae just prior to making landfall. This may be a benefit considering that the area is still recovering from TS Ketsana and Typhoon Parma.

Tropical Storm Mirinae likely to become next typhoon to strike the Philippines (Examiner)
Continuing to gain strength, a tropical disturbance in the Pacific became Tropical Storm Mirinae today. This latest storm is on a track that will have it make a direct hit on the Philippines just as the nation is trying to recover from two previous storms.

The new storm has winds that have increased to 52 mph, gusting to 64 mph and is forecast to reach typhoon strength equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the next 12 hours. Additional strengthening is expected through Friday at which time Mirinae will be nearing the Philippines with winds of 115 mph (Category 3).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects some weakening after 72 hours which is good news for the Philippines. Current forecasts have to storm making landfall in southern or central Luzon on Saturday as a Category 1 storm with winds just over 80 mph. Manila remains in a direct line to be hit by the storm.

Monday, October 26, 2009

TS 23 to cross over Guam tomorrow

Before menacing the Philippines, Tropical Storm 23 will strike Guam with 40 + MPH winds and heavy rain.

Lurking storm to pass Guam at noon (KUAM)
Maximum sustained winds associated with 23-W are 40 MPH and the storm is expected to intensify over the next 24 hours after it passes the Marianas. Island residents can expect increasing showers and thunderstorms beginning late this morning into the afternoon. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 4.

Meanwhile, Saipan has been declared in Condition of Readiness 2 with the possibility of damaging winds.

It is important to remember that the majority of storms that have hit the Philippines, Taiwan, Hainan and Vietnam this season have all crossed Guam either as a depression, tropical storm or even a low grade typhoon.

Another typhoon heading for the Philippines

A fourth tropical storm has formed in the western Pacific that is heading towards the Philippines. This system is currently Tropical Storm 23 and is expected to strengthen as it approaches Luzon Island over the next 5 days.

Currently the storm track indicates that this storm will plow into Manila as a Category 3 typhoon early Saturday, but the uncertainty is such that the entire northern Philippines are at risk. As the week continues on we will know better if this track will hold or if it will shift in either direction.

Weather Underground is reporting that this storm has sustained winds of 40 MPH with gusts of 50 making it a low grade tropical storm. The storm has pulled together and is currently moving faster than expected to the west northwest. The storm will steadily intensify until reaching typhoon strength in approximately 3 days. After that intensification will continue until reaching Cat 3 strength with peak winds of 100 knots shortly before making landfall.

Typhoon 2000 reports that a high pressure ridge is building just north of the storm which will be the primary steering current that will bring this storm into the Philippine Sea and towards metro Manila.
Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast
shows the system hitting Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including
Metro Manila on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 30-Nov 01).

Friday, October 23, 2009

Tropical Storm Lupit (Ramil) shifts to the north

Lupit has now diminished to a tropical storm and has taken the shift in its path to the north as predicted by AccuWeather and others yesterday. This storm track will result in only a small portion of Luzon being hit while most of the rain is concentrated further north.

Tropical storm Ramil shifts path (Business World Online)

TROPICAL STORM Ramil (international name: Lupit), interacting with two weather disturbances, has changed anew its path and may only hit islands off northern Luzon, the weather bureau said Friday, giving a breather to storm-weary residents.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), in its 4 p.m. report, said two high pressure areas over the Philippine and South China seas have weakened the howler and slowed down its movement.

With a slightly changing path that may even skirt the tip of Northern Luzon, Ramil’s peak winds have slowed down to 105 kilometers per hour (kph) with gusts of 135 kph. Almost remaining stationary, it is forecast at 105 km east of Aparri, Cagayan Saturday afternoon, 115 km northeast of the provincial capitol Sunday afternoon and 140 km north-northeast Monday morning.

Signal 3 remains hoisted over the provinces of Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte and the islands of Babuyan and Calayan; signal 2 covers Abra Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, Isabela and Mountain Province; and signal 1 is over La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino and northern Aurora.

Flooding is still likely as 25 mm - 200 mm or more of rain fall on the islands of Bubuyan and Cagayan. Rain fall amounts from this storm are shown in teh latest eTRAP graphic from NOAA:

Tropical storm Lupit brings flooding to Ilan (Taiwan News)

Despite the storm’s slow progress, rain caused flooding in Ilan City, causing traffic problems. In the Ilan County township of Toucheng, 250 teachers and students at a school were forced to move to other classrooms as the first floor was flooded.

Taipei’s Shuanghsi area recorded the most rainfall, 400mm for the period from Thursday morning to yesterday afternoon or 274mm for the first 14 hours of Friday. During the same period, Toucheng in Ilan County recorded 267mm and Pinglin in Taipei County 219mm.

More than 300 people left Green Island for Taitung yesterday morning ahead of a suspension of ferry services between the two from 10:00 a.m. until the end of the weekend, reports said. More remote Orchid Island ordered all schools and offices closed yesterday.

Lupit was originally thought to move across the Northern Philippines in the direction of China, but Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau was the first to suggest it could stay above the Philippines and then make a right turn to move northeast toward Japan.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Major Hurricane Neki churns in the Pacific

Hurricane Neki formed a few days ago in the central Pacific southwest of the Hawaiian Islands and has grown to a Category 3 storm. Johnston Islands received a direct hit yesterday but there is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands other than higher than normal surf on the southwest beaches.

Major Hurricane Neki in Central Pacific (AccuWeather)

Category 3 Hurricane Neki continues to thrive in the central Pacific Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. As of Thursday evening, Neki was located about 540 miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.

Although Neki will remain in an area of light wind shear, it will be encountering cooler waters as it heads north. As a result, a gradual weakening trend is expected through this weekend.

Neki will continue on a general northerly path over the next couple of days, which will keep it well away from the Hawaiian Islands. The storm is expected to pass between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef around Friday morning, local time.

Philippines may be spared direct hit

Two high pressure systems are acting to steer Typhoon Lupit away from a direct strike on Luzon Island. AccuWeather is reporting that it appears that Lupit will veer to the north and miss the northern Philippine Island.

Lupit to Miss Philippines But Still Cause Flooding (AccuWeather)

The worst impact of Typhoon Lupit now looks set to miss the storm-ravaged north of the Philippines. Lupit is expected to veer northward and thus spare Luzon the worst of its destructive wind, though flooding rain and locally damaging winds are still expected over northern Luzon.

Thursday morning, EDT, the center of Lupit was 350 miles northeast of Manila with a westerly drift at 6 mph. Highest sustained winds were near 75 mph -- still those of a Category 1 storm, yet far below last weekend's Category-4 winds of then-Super Typhoon Lupit.

Lupit will continue to drift to the north and east of Luzon Island over the Philippine Sea over the next day or two as the area of high pressure that has been steering Lupit has weakened. This area of high pressure is expected to regain strength over the weekend and will cause Lupit to veer northeastward and thus away from the Philippines, rather than making a potentially devastating westward transit of northern Luzon.

The strengthening of the high over the western Pacific is expected to pull the storm towards the north and into Taiwan. Additionally, as the high over south China was acting as a block preventing any northward movement. As this high weakens, there will be nothing preventing Lupit from initially drifting and then driving northward.

Even with the center of the storm missing landfall, the potential for flooding remains very high. Heavy rain associated with the outer bands of the storm are currently coming ashore and will continue to do so for the next day or two until Lupit moves out of the Philippines area of responsibility. The islands are already being affected by the storm surge and rising waters from this storm, which is known as "Typhoon Ramil" locally.

Rising sea levels, brownouts mark coming of ‘Ramil’ (GMA News.TV)
Rising sea level that forced the evacuation of 65 families and power interruptions heralded the coming of typhoon "Ramil" (international name Lupit) in Cagayan Valley, the National Disaster Coordinating Council said Thursday night.

In its 6 p.m. report, the NDCC said some 65 families or 182 people were evacuated after a 20-meter seawall collapsed in San Antonio village in Aparri town Tuesday. The evacuees included 41 from Maura village and 24 from San Antonio village.

Sixteen families were preemptively evacuated from Pilig Abajo village in Cabagan town in Isabela province to the town gymnasium.

The NDCC also noted unscheduled power interruptions in areas managed by the Cagayan Electric Cooperative since 9:30 a.m. Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit slowing down as it aopproaches Luzon

Typhoon Lupit has been steadily weakening as it apporaches the northern tip of Luzon. However it is also slowing down its forward motion. A lingering storm in any one area increases teh potential for flooding.
The analysis from Weather Underground is that the storm is floundering around between two weak steering currents. The concensus model appears to be that the storm is being slowly directed to the north. One track I saw almost indicates that the eye of the storm will pass to the north of the island. Even with a much more northerly track, the heavy rain will still impact the main island as well as all of the much smaller islands in the northern part of the Philippines.
The good news is that Lupit is barely hanging on as a typhoon. Dry air and interaction with land will break up the storm and it is expected to drop to tropical storm strength.
Forecast Outlook from Typhoon 2000:
LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving Westward w/in the next 24 to 48 hours. Its wind speed will slightly re-intensify as it moves closer near the coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW into the Balintang Channel, passing north of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27).

*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurve towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as majority of various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario.
Due to the potential for Lupit to take a northern track, Taiwan is now going on alert in preparation for this storm.
At 11 a.m. Thursday, the storm was centered about 540 km east- southeast of Taiwan's southernmost tip of Eluanbi, moving at a speed of 9-5 kph in a west-southwesterly direction toward the northern region of Luzon Island in the Philippines, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

The bureau has forecast that the typhoon, which combined with the northeastern monsoon, brought rain to northern and eastern Taiwan Wednesday, will continue to bring wet weather to Taiwan until next Tuesday.

Although the storm is weakening, CWB meteorologists said it could change course Friday or Saturday and move in a more northerly direction toward Taiwan.

The bureau may issue a sea warning against the typhoon on Friday at the earliest if the storm changes its course and moves toward Taiwan.

Northern and eastern parts of Taiwan are expected to be most affected by the heavy rains which the typhoon is expected to bring to Taiwan in the following days.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Tropical Depression Rick races inland

Early this morning, local time Tropical Storm Rick made landfall on the Mexican mainland near Mazatlan after passing to the south of Baja California. Rick came ashore with winds of 55 MPH which is a major releif compared to the 180 MPH winds Rick earlier in its travels.

Tropical storm hits Mexican resort, topples trees (Houston Chronicle)
MAZATLAN, Mexico — Tropical Storm Rick hit Mexico's Pacific coast just north of the resort of Mazatlan on Wednesday, toppling trees and signs, after sparing Los Cabos on the Baja California peninsula a direct blow.

The center of the storm made landfall around 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) with winds of about 55 mph (90 kph), kicking up high waves that drew residents of Mazatlan to the city's seaside boulevard to watch the spectacle.

After moving over land, the storm dissipated by the afternoon, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Authorities had no immediate reports of significant damage, though a steady rain had pelted the city since late Tuesday and several trees were toppled by the storm's winds. Electricity was knocked out in parts of the city, Sinaloa Gov. Jesus Aguilar told local media.

Rick is now a tropical depression and is moving rapidly across the Mexican mainland on its way to the southern US. The depression is located approximately in the center of northern Mexico and looks like it will enter South Texas as a remnant low pressure system before morning.

Weather Channel Tropical Update

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Weather Channel Tropical Update

Link to the Weather Channel's 6:50 pm EDT update

Hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons covers information on the disturbance in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Rick heading just south of Baja California, Tropical Storm Neki in the Central Pacific and Typhoon Lupit near the Philippines.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RICK

Tropical sotrm Rick is now coming ashore in the most southern portion of Baja California. Rick has been downgraded to a tropical storm and continues to lose strength. He is expected to be a topical depression before striking the mainland tomorrow.

Moisture from the remnants of this storm will then spread across south Texas which is in great need of rain due to a deep drought that has been in place since before the summer. By the end of the week, rain from Rick will spread across the entire southland into northern Alabama and Georgia.
Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2009 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RICK is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Culiacan (24.8 N, 107.4 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Durango (24.0 N, 104.7 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Super Typhoon Lupit setting its sights on Luzon

Typhoon Lupit continued to strengthen over the weekend and shifted its course to the north in a zigzag that gave the false impression that this storm could pass to the north of Philippines northern island. Instead the Category 4 storm is slowly turning towards the west-southwest.

Typhoon 2000 is indicating that there is a slight potential for Lupit to be steered more towards the south which to me appears that it could hit the island head on. This scenario will only occur if the high pressure system off eastern China builds and pushes the storm southward. Even so, the storm track has consistently been projected to pass over anywhere from the northern tip of the island to as far south as to be near Manila.

Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to start accelerating and turning more westerly w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will continue to decrease as it moves closer to Northern Luzon.

The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT moving into a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and extends across Ryukyu & Okinawan Islands. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon...making landfall over Northern Cagayan between 2 to 4 PM on Thursday Oct 22...passing directly or very close to Aparri.

The core (eye & eyewall) of LUPIT shall cross Abra, Kalinga and exit over Ilocos Sur Thursday evening and shall be over the South China Sea Friday, Oct 23 - turning West to WNW towards Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Saturday Oct 24.

*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track more WSW-ward earlier than expected with a strike across the southern part of Northern Luzon thru Isabela Province or Southern Cagayan. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more and dig deeper southward. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains low.

Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Typhoon Lupit continues on path to Philippines (Examiner)

For the storm weary Philippines, the latest forecast models do not bear good news. The JTWC is now forecasting the path of the storm to make a direct hit on Luzon. Early models indicated it may pass to the north of the island. Sometime near 24 hours from now the storm is forecast to turn toward the west-southwest setting the storm on a path for Luzon.

Lupit is expected to lose some strength as it continues toward the Philippines. Dry air and increased shear are playing a factor despite the fact the hurricane remains over warm water. By the time it reaches the Philippines the storm is forecast to be packing 100 mph sustained winds and gusts to 126 mph – the equivalent of a Category 2 storm.

Assuming the forecast holds true, Lupit will become the third major storm to strike the storm weary Philippines in recent weeks. Much of the northern part of the nation suffered through Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) and Tropical Storm Ketsana (Ondoy). The storms brought deluges of rain and caused mudslides and flooding that claimed more than 900 lives. The Cagayan-Aparri area is in particular danger due to already saturated ground from the previous storms.

Hurricane Rick weakens almost as quickly as it strengthened

Hurricane Rick quickly surged in strength this past weekend from a tropical storm all the way to a category 5 monster with sustained winds peaking out at 180 mph. This made Rick the strongest storm in the eastern Pacific since Linda in 1997. This is very unusual in that meteorologists generally feel that conditions do not usually exist to allow such a storm to form, but occasionally it will as we saw this weekend.

As the weekend went on, Rick slowly decreased in strength becoming a category 4 storm on Sunday and dropping down to a Cat 2 storm this afternoon. Cool sea temperatures are the key driving force in reducing Rick's fury. Further reduction is expected to continue as Rick approaches the southern tip of Baja California.

Hurricane Rick weakens further as it approaches Baja California Sur (LA Times)
Hurricane Rick continues to weaken as it approaches the Cabo San Lucas area at the tip of Baja California. The National Hurricane Centerat 2 p.m. Monday issued an advisory stating that maximum sustained winds are down to about 100 mph and that Rick is now a Category 2 hurricane.

The storm is located 325 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas and its predicted course has changed since the morning forecast. The center of the storm is now expected to merely skirt Cabo San Lucas, perhaps sparing the region major damage, as it travels toward the northeast in the direction of mainland Mexico. It will pass Cabo San Lucas as a tropical storm late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Rick's storm track continues to shift southward indicating that this storm may just graze teh southern tip of the peninsula or pass south of Cabo San Lucas missing the resort with its strongest winds.

Unfortunately, as the hurricane began its approach, Rick already claimed one victim.

Pacific Hurricane Rick weakens, blamed in death (Associated Press)
MEXICO CITY — Hurricane Rick was more than a day away from the resorts of Baja California on Monday but the 13-foot (4-meter) waves it kicked up have already killed one person in Los Cabos, which lies almost directly in the hurricane's forecast path.

Francisco Cota, the Los Cabos civil defense director, said a 38-year-old man was standing on a rocky point fishing when he was swept away by one of the big waves Sunday. Bystanders went to help the man, but by the time they got him out of the water he was dead.

"We have established patrols on the beaches to keep people from going into the sea," Cota said. Storm shelters were being opened at local schools and patrol vehicles were making the rounds of low-lying neighborhoods with loudspeakers urging people to evacuate.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

New Orleans seeks storm preparation helps - from CUBA

Mayor's surprise visit to Cuba (WVUE)

New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin has chosen to learn about disaster management from Cuba's Defense Committee. This is a clear case of ideology taking precidence over safety.

Why would the mayor of a mainland city need to seek guidance from an island nation?

If Cuba has effective methods for evacuating people out of harms' way, and I hope they do for their people's sake, then that is totally irrelevant with regards to a city such as New Orleans. An island nation such as Cuba, the Bahamas, Dominican Republic and others have unique evacuation challenges that must be addressed. The authorities on island nations have to find a way to shift their populations from the path of danger when there is no place to go.

People who live near the shore have to be moved inland but heavy rains in the mountains can produce mudslides and flash floods. Frequently the cone of uncertainty is wider that the island itself so how do you get out of the way.

If Ray Nagin wanted to learn effective storm preparation methods that could be applied to his city, then he should go to FLORIDA, not CUBA.

In 2004, Florida was battered by four storms in a row. In 2005 when New Orleans was hit by Katrina, Florida was battered by another three storms including Wilma, the storngest storm on record based on central pressure. Nagin needs to ask Jeb Bush what works.

Another option is for Nagin to visit his neighbor Haley Barbour in Mississippi. Mississippi was successful in evacuating their coast before New Orleans even began their evacuation.

Could it be that Ray Nagin is too proud to talk to his Republican neighbors? Does ideology prevent a Democrat from learning a thing or two from a Republican?

Of course the Mississippi's coastal cities are no where near the size of New Orleans in area or population. Lyda Ann Thomas, the mayor of Galveston knows about protecting a coastal city. The evacuation preceeding Hurricane Rita is frequently criticized due to the overwhelming traffic jam stretching over 100 miles from Houston. The facts are that Galveston Island was empty days before Rita came ashore and Galveston County was evacuated 24 hours before landfall. Additionally, the problems that were discovered were recognized and changes were made as quickly as possible. When Hurricane Ike made a direct hit, the evacuation went smoothly. The great loss of life on Bolivar Peninsula, as in Katrina, were people who did not leave.

Cooperation between Mayor Thomas, Galveston Emergency Management, Houston mayor Bill White and Governor Perry showed how competent officials can work together. Oh, by the way, Mayors Thomas and White are Democrats while Perry is a Republican. Party and ideology can be set aside when safety is set as the priority.

The five states along the Gulf Coast have plenty of resources Mayor Nagin could have chosen to work with to improve the safety of New Orleans.

Trackback to: Dumb Ox Daily News, Woman Honor Thyself

Hurricane Rick is already a Major Cat 4 storm

Overnight Hurricane Rick intensified to a category 4 storm with 135 MPH sustained winds with higher gusts.

Rick Now 'Extremely Dangerous' Category 4 Hurricane (Fox News)
MIAMI — The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Rick has rapidly developed into an "extremely dangerous" Category 3 storm off Mexico's Pacific coast with winds near 135 mph.

The Miami center said Rick was centered about 255 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, and was moving west-northwest near 12 mph as of 6:15 a.m. EDT Saturday.

Acapulco's Civil Protection Department had earlier issued a warning that expected rains from outer bands of the storm could trigger landslides and flooding in the resort city.

The public advisory from the National Hurricane Center states that hurricane force winds extend 35 miles and tropical storm force winds extend 105 miles from the storm's center.

Rick may reach category 5 status by tonight.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Hurricane Rick forms in the Pacific

Hurricane Rick formed in the eastern Pacific and has intensified fairly quickly from a tropical depression just yesterday. Intensification is expected to continue with Rick reaching Cat 2 strength overnight, Cat 3 by Saturday afternoon and category 4 by early Sunday morning. Winds are expected to peak at 125 - 140 MPH making Rick a major hurricane halfway through the weekend.

Hurricane force winds could affect the Mexican coastline as early as this weekend.

Hurricane Rick strengthens in Mexican Pacific (Reuters)
MEXICO CITY, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Hurricane Rick strengthened off Mexico's Pacific coast on Friday and could hit resorts on the Baja California peninsula next week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Hurricane Rick, the seventh hurricane of the eastern north Pacific season, was located about 270 miles (435 km) south of the resort city of Acapulco with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 kph) with higher gusts.

The center said outer rain bands of the Category 1 storm could reach the southern Mexican coast later on Friday.

Rick's storm track will remain parallel to the Mexican west coast until early next week when he starts to turn towards the north and north-northeast. As Rick makes this turn, wind speeds are expected to lessen but there is a good chance that Rick will still be a hurricane late next week, potentially making landfall on southern Baja California.

Hurricane Rick forms off Mexico's coast - Expected to become Category 4 storm (Examiner)

Rick is currently 290 miles south of Acapulco and moving toward the west at 9 mph. The storm is packing winds of 75 mph, just inside the hurricane threshold. However, forecasters said he storm will continue to strengthen and should become a major hurricane of up to Category 4 strength with winds exceeding 131 mph.

Low wind shear and warm waters will help to feed the storm as it tracks toward the west. By Monday the storm is expected to turn toward the northwest and eventually north by the middle of next week. Where it goes after that is uncertain but it could turn back east toward Baja California.

Typhoon Lupit intensifies

Typhoon Lupit very quickly jumped from a strong tropical storm to a Category 2 typhoon with sustained winds of 95 MPH. This storm also decreased its forward speed. Further reduction on forward speed is expected over the next 24 - 48 hours coupled with a slight jog to the north-west before regaining forward momentum and speed.

Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to reduce its forward speed from 20 kph to just 5 kph w/ in the next 24 to 48. A passing mid-level low pressure (trough) is expected to weaken the steering ridge north of LUPIT, thus its slow movement. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT resuming its WNW or Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge off Taiwan develops, driving LUPIT towards Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Thursday (Oct 19-22).

Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): LUPIT will make landfall over Northern Cagayan on Wednesday morning, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Norte Wednesday evening (Oct 22) - a track similar to the recent Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG). Please be reminded that the IIF changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

WARNING: Long term forecast for Tropical Storm LUPIT

Tropical storm 22 formed in the western Pacific yesterday and initially looked like it as headed towards Taiwan. Today the forecast track of this storm moved decidedly to the south aiming the center of this storm at the northern part of Luzon Island. This is the area that has just been torn up by Typhoon Parma this past week and Tropical Storm Ketsana the week before.

Tropical Storm Lupit, is gaining strength and is expected to enter the Philippine Sea by the weekend. A low pressure trough will be the cause to the predicted jog to the northwest but the stormtrack resumes its WNW motion by the beginning of the week.

Typhoon 2000: The Philippines First Website on Tropical Cyclones is providing regular 6 hour updates on the progress of this storm. The current forecast outlook is:
LUPIT is expected to slow down as it continues moving WNW, entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early tomorrow morning. It will become a Typhoon soon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT executing a very slow NW'ly turn tomorrow until Sunday (Oct 17-18)...this is due to a passing middle-latitude low pressure area (trough) north of it. Then, on Monday Oct 19th, LUPIT shall resume its west or WNW track towards Northern Luzon. This storm shall rapidly grow into a Category 4 Typhoon w/ winds of 230 kph on Wednesday Oct 21st.

The short of it is that for the third time in 5 weeks the northern part of the Philippines will be hit by a very strong cyclone, possibly a super typhoon.

All residents and visitors in northern and central Luzon should monitor the progress of this storm very carefully and make every preparation possible including evacuation from the area if at all possible. Landfall will not occur for 120 hours or more. The storm track may shift such that the storm could target any land from southern Philippines to south China and Taiwan.

DISCLAIMER: As I have said many times in the past, I am a hobbyist. Please use the links provided here for additional information but not for life saving purposes. Follow the instructions and guidance of your local governments and professional meteorologists.

Anyone reading this who is dealing with the ravages of these storms, please comment on this site to help us understand what you are dealing with.

Parma slowly making its way inland

After causing a great deal of devestation in the Philippines and heavy rain in China, Tropical Storm Parma is dying down and slowing down significantly as it makes landfall in northern Vietnam. The forward motion of this storm , IMO, appeared to basically have stopped. Moving only 3 MPH to the northwest, the center of the storms seems to be parked over the Vietnamese coast since Tuesday night.

Vietnam braces for arrival of Parma(CBC News)
Vietnam has evacuated 30,000 people from their homes along the country's northern coast in preparation for the arrival Wednesday of tropical storm Parma, which is fading in strength after leaving more than 300 dead in the Philippines and China.

Vietnam's government weather service said it expected Parma to be downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves along the coastline of northern provinces Wednesday evening.

While rains have been reported in the region, major flooding is not expected on the same scale as the flooding that struck the Philippines almost two weeks ago when Parma first hit.

The storm has sustained winds of 40 MPH and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves along the coast and further inland. Since the storm strength has lessened compared to what it was earlier, some fishermen have taken the risk to put out to sea. This is certainly a mistake as the high seas are still an issue.

Storm churns Vietnam, kills fisherman (Independent)

A Chinese fisherman died and 12 went missing as Tropical Storm Parma churned seas off Vietnam, a government official said Thursday.

Two Chinese fishing boats with 14 crew members aboard were reported missing on Wednesday after they anchored at the Vietnamese island of Bach Long Vi to escape the storm.

Nguyen Ba Tien, head of the storm authority in the port city of Haiphong, said coastal border forces had found the body of one of the Chinese fishermen on Thursday and were searching for the others.


As the storm weakened early on Wednesday, the fishing boats weighed anchor despite continued rough seas. Haiphong coastal border guards then lost radio contact with them.

"I believe big waves sank them," Tien said.

Vietnam's national storm and flood authorities said Parma sank 64 fishing boats, three barges, two motorboats and 50 coracles and seriously injured seven people.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm PATRICIA

Tropical Storm Patricia is bufferring the southern tip of Baja California with 50 MPH winds and rain. Current track projections indicate that she will actually make landfall at the very southern tip of the peninsula before turning sharply to the west. Tropical storm force winds are expected to remain throughout all of Wednesday before this storm degrades to a depression as she heads out into open waters.
Storm Alert issued at 13 Oct, 2009 21:00 GMT
Tropical Storm PATRICIA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Tropical Storm Parma takes aim on Vietnam

Tropical Storm Parma is making its was across the Gulf of Tonkin and will soon be making landfall in north central Vietnam tonight local time. The storm will strike with tropical storm force winds and bring heavy rain to an area that has seen quite a few typhoons this season.

Weather forecast for the Asia-Pacific region (Taiwan News)
Tropical Storm Parma will trek through the Gulf of Tonkin on Wednesday before making landfall with northern Vietnam, near San Som and Thanh Hoa.

The system will slam across the coast at tropical storm strength with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and damaging winds. Severe and persistent weather activity will likely translate into areas of flooding near the coast and dangerous surf conditions in the surrounding waters. Residents are urged to take adequate safety precautions against the storm.

Moisture from the system will kick up a few showers and clouds in the southeastern China. After making landfall, Parma will begin to veer to the southwest. The system is expected to dissipated on Thursday.

In addition to concerns regarding the winds and potential for flooding, officials are also concerned about the storm surge risk and have orderd evacuations from coastal areas.

Vietnam Prepares for Parma as Storm to Make Landfall (Bloomberg)
Vietnam’s National Committee for Flood and Storm Control said on its Web site the storm is bringing winds as high as 88 kilometers (55 miles) per hour along with heavy rain as it approaches the coast. These conditions are forecast to remain in effect until about midday tomorrow, it said.

The committee ordered local authorities to evacuate people in areas that may be affected by tidal surge from the northern province of Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh by 7 p.m. local time as the storm is moving toward the coast line at high speed, according to an update posted on the committee’s Web site today. All rescue forces will have to be on stand-by for immediate action when required, the statement said.

In addition, a cold front will be strengthening as it apporaches the area so the region will be wit with storms from two sides as the tropical storm and teh front collide. Flooding in low lying areas and flash floods and landslides in mountainous regions may combine to cause a great deal of destruction.

Viet Nam: Typhoon Parma (No.10) - urgent update (13/10/2009 - 5pm) (Relief Web)

- 12h forecast: Typhoon No.10 moving 10 km/h towards the Vietnamese coast. 14/10/2009, 4am, storm will make landfall and eye of storm will be around coastal line provinces from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh.

- Cao Bang, Thanh Hoa and Lang Son: heavy rainfall expected from midnight 14/10/2009

- Tide levels at coastal provinces from Quang Ninh to Nghe An will reach 3 to 5 meters the more the storm is increasing.

- The cold air front, currently in the North, will be moving towards the South and will get stronger in the Northern provinces during the evening and at midnight.

- The East Northern area and provinces from Thanh Hoa to Quang Binh will suffer from medium to heavy rainfall.

- Be careful with landslides and flash floods in mountainous areas, and flooding in lower lands.

Residents in low lying areas should seek higher ground per official directives. Everyone in areas with high winds and heavy rain need to hunker do0wn to protect themselves from flying debris and ensure that they are on secure land away from rushing water.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Heavy rain to drench northern California

As we reported this past weekend, the remains of Typhoon Melor are headed towards northern California and will drench the Golden State beginning tomorrow (Tuesday). Rainfall as high as 6 inches and even higher in some areas could lead to heavy flooding and even mudslides.

One concern is areas damaged by forest fires which have been denuded and no longer have trees and plant life to hold the soil. The loose soil could easily become areas where mudslides develop if the rainfall is strong enough.

Rain, Wind On The Way For Northern California (Fox 40)
SACRAMENTO - The clouds are moving in, and a storm is on the way.

The National Weather Service says heavy rain and strong winds are expected to roll into the interior of Northern California early Tuesday morning, with wind gusts up to 50 miles per hour and rain measuring three to seven inches.

The weather event is blamed on whats left over from Super Typhoon Melor, which slammed Japan late last week, causing damage to bridges and buildings. While the Sacramento area isn't bracing for the same strength winds that Melor brought to Japan (gusting to nearly 90 miles per hour, if anyone was counting), the storm could do damage to areas prone to flooding -- including new danger zones created by recent summer wildfires, including a large fire that devastated several neighborhoods in Auburn.

Bay Area wind speeds expected to reach 35 to 50 mph on Tuesday(Mercury News)
The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the San Francisco Bay area on Tuesday, meaning winds of 35 mph and higher are anticipated.

Southerly winds are expected to increase ahead of the storm system that is moving into the area later today, and wind speeds are expected to reach 20 to 35 mph by Tuesday.

Gusts of 50 mph are possible, the NWS said.

Death and suffering continue from two tropical systems

Typhoon Parma may finally be gone from Luzon, but its effects are being felt and will continue to for quite some time. Parma struck one week after Ketsana struck about a hundred miles or so to the south. To add insult to injury, Parma crossed the island 3 times before heading out towards China.

Video: Philippines reels from flood disaster - 11 Oct 09
(Al Jazeera)

The combined effects of both of these storms has resulted in over 700 deaths from scores of mudslides. Food is running out in some isolated areas and the death toll may continue to increase as more bodies are found during recovery operations.

Death toll from typhoon Parma rains hits 304 (Gulf News)
Some 304 people have died due to 40 landslides and massive flooding that occurred after typhoon Parma brought relentless rains in northern Luzon since early October, disaster officials and sources said on Monday.

Of the 304 officially recorded fatalities, half were buried by landslides in the Cordillera region, and the other half by drowning in Pangasinan and Nueva Ecija in lower northern Luzon, including upper southern Luzon's Quezon province and the Bicol Region, Olive Luces, regional director of the Office of Civil Defence -Cordillera Administrative Region (OCD-CAR), said in a radio interview.

With Parma's deaths and the 337 who perished from the floods of storm Ketsana in Metro Manila and nearby lower northern and upper southern Luzon last
September 26, the death toll now stands at 731.

Landslides in northern Luzon occurred in areas without power and communication and which were isolated as sections of roads gave way since typhoon Parma made a landfall there on October 2, said Luces, adding: "Northern Luzon will be isolated for some more weeks due to extensive damages on roads and bridges due to typhoon Parma."

"More bodies are being unearthed by rescue and recovery teams who have been moving mud and rocks from hills that have collapsed," said Luces.
Aid is coming in from many sources and one report indicated that the government began importing rice from its 2010 inventories. The US Military has been assisting with recovery efforts providing helicopters and supplies.

Marines fly aid to storm site (Philadelphia Inquirer)
BAGUIO, Philippines - U.S. Marine CH-46 helicopters loaded with rice, sardines, and drinking water flew yesterday into this stricken Philippine mountain city where supplies are running short after landslides blocked roads and buried dozens of residents.

Three days after heavy rains sent tons of mud and rock cascading down hillsides in Baguio, rescuers were still digging for survivors. Panic buying of canned goods emptied stores in the city, and authorities were forced to ration gasoline.

"There is nearly zero gasoline supply now, and we're running low on food," said Agrifino Javier, the city's police chief.

But as Tropical Depression Parma blew out late Saturday after drenching the country's north for a week, the overwhelmed government, helped by the U.S. military, was able to step up relief efforts.

Taiwan Buddhist temple donates 8 tons of relief goods to Manila (Taiwan News)
Manila, Oct. 12 (CNA) Eight tons of relief goods collected by a Fo Guang Shan Monastery, a Taiwanese Buddhist temple, for typhoon-affected victims in the Philippines arrived in Manila Monday.

Tropical Storm Parma makes landfall on Hainan

Tropical Storm Hainan made landfall on China's Hainan Island Monday morning local time (approximately 20 hours ago). The storm has crossed the island and re-emerged over water heading for Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Makes China Landfall After Battering Philippines (Bloomberg)

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Parma made landfall on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, after moving away from the Philippines where it crossed Luzon three times leaving almost 200 people dead.

Parma reached the coast at about 10 a.m. Chinese time today, the official Xinhua News Agency said. There were no reports of casualties or damage.

The storm’s winds were blowing at 65 kilometers (40 miles) per hour before it hit land, according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The storm is forecast to head toward Vietnam after it crosses Hainan. It’s due to cross the Vietnamese coast south of Hanoi after 7 p.m. local time tomorrow

Tropical storm Parma lands on S China province Hainan (Xinhua)
HAIKOU, Oct. 12 (Xinhua) -- Tropical storm Parma made a powerful landing in Wanning City in the southernmost island province of Hainan on Monday, said the provincial observatory.

The Hainan provincial meteorological station said Parma landed in Longgun Township at 9:50 a.m. Monday, packing wind with a speed of up to 54 km per hour.
The storm caused a fishing boat to capsize killing three people. Five others had to be rescued from the sea. The boat capsized and sank as the storm struck. Apparently there were nine people on board and one person remains missing.

Death toll rises to three after tropical storm Parma lands in south China (Xinhua)
Parma made a landfall in Wanning's Longgun Township at 9:50 a.m. Monday, packing winds of up to 54 km per hour, according to the Hainan Provincial Observatory.

The storm is moving northwestward at a speed of 15 km per hour.

The tropical storm brought strong winds and rains to most parts of the province, and local authorities have warned residents against flash floods, landslides and other disasters.


In addition to Hainan, Parma brought winds and rains to coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian and Taiwan provinces.

Tropical Storm Patricia heads towards Baja California

Tropical Storm Patricia has formed in the eastern Pacific from TD 19-E. She is heading due north and is expected to make landfall at the southern tip of Baja California in the next couple of days. The Mexican government has already issued a tropical storm watch for the southern portion of the peninsula.

Tropical Storm Patricia takes aim on Mexico's Baja Peninsula (USA Today)

    Tropical Storm Patricia strengthened Monday as it inched closer to the tip of the Baja California Peninsula, prompting the government to issue a tropical storm watch for the resort-dotted southern part of the peninsula.

    Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said that Patricia's center was located about 265 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California Monday morning.

    Patricia was moving toward the north-northwest at about 8 mph and maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph. The storm was still disorganized but was expected to continue strengthening over the next 24 hours and be very near the peninsula by Tuesday afternoon, the center said.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Tropical Depression 19-E forms; headed for Baja Sur

Tropical Depression 19-E has formed in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center does not expec t this storm to intensify much beyond a weak tropical storm even though sea surface temperatures are warm enough to favor further organization. Dry stable air and a slight easterly wind shear will keep 19E from strengthening beyond wind speeds in the low 40's mph.

19-E is heading north northwest and is expected to continue on this path until sometime Tueday when it turns more to the west northwest. In this timeframe, rain bands will be affecting the souther tip of Baja California. Rain bands are already coming ashore on Mexico's west coast and in the souther portions of Baja.

Tropical Storm Parma heading towards China and Vietnam

After ravenging the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma is now heading for China's Hainan Island and will continue on to the northern and central provinces of Vietnam. These are areas that have been hit by sveral other storms throughout this season and have experienced significant rain and flooding and a result.

China issues alert on approaching typhoon Parma (Xinhua)

China's central observatory issued an alert Sunday morning on typhoon Parma, which was expected to make a landing on southern China Monday or Tuesday.

As of 5 a.m. Sunday, the eye of Parma was located at 500 kilometers southeast off Wanning city in Hainan Province, packing winds up to 64.8 km per hour, the observatory said.

Parma, which has left at least 299 dead in the Philippines, would continue moving northwestward at 15 km per hour and was expected to land at south China's coastal areas along Lingshui in Hainan and Zhanjiang in Guangdong Province Monday night or Tuesday morning, it said.

Parma currently has sustained winds of 45 MPH with gusts of 55 MPH. The current projections are that Parma will hit Hainan with tropical storm force winds and then degrade to a tropical depression.

Storm Parma downgrades, causes rough seas (VOV News)
Even though tropical storm Parma is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression in the next 24 hours, it will still cause rough seas and dump heavy rains on central coastal provinces.

The National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Centre reported that at 13.00 on October 11, the storm was positioned at 17.7 degrees north latitude and 113.5 degrees east longitude, about 220 km northeast of Hoang Sa archipelago. It was packing winds of between 62-74 km per hour near its centre.

In the next 24 hours, the storm will move west and north-west at a speed of 15-20km and is expected to downgrade to a tropical depression. However, the centre warned central coastal provinces about torrential rains and rough seas in the evening of October 11.

Remains of Melor to strike California

Super-typhoon Melor stuck Japan earlier this past week and continued to the northeast quickly becoming extratropical in nature. The remains from this storm has now made its way across the Pacific Ocean and is expected to saturate most of California north of Los Angeles. Heavy rain, potential flooding and possibly mudslides could affect the area beginning Monday and continuing through Thursday.

Weekend weather to be pleasant, chance of rain next week (San Diego Union Tribune)
A massive storm, the remnants of western Pacific Typhoon Melor, is expected to barrel into Northern California Monday through Wednesday. If it lives up to billing, the storm would be one of the strongest to hit the area in several years. It could dump 5 to 8 inches of rain on the mountains and foothills. The National Weather Service is warning about possible mud and debris flows in recent burn areas, urban flooding and winds up to 60 mph.

But it is unclear whether any rain will make it as far south as San Diego. Weather service forecaster Miguel Miller said the main wave of moisture should hit the northern half of the state Tuesday, but the best chance of rain in Southern California will come late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

Monterey County could see 10 inches of rain, 60 mph winds from storm (The Californian)

The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous-weather statement for early next week, warning that heavy rain and high winds could bring road flooding, mudslides and power outages to the Monterey County area. The service called the storm system unusually strong for October in Central and Northern California. It originated from Typhoon Melor, which struck Japan a few days ago, according to the weather statement.

Rain and winds are expected to be heaviest Tuesday. Rainfall amounts could reach up to 10 inches in the Santa Lucia mountains, the service said, and wind gusts of up to 60 mph are possible.

Mud and debris flows are possible on areas burned in recent wildfires, the service said. Flooding could occur in small streams and roadways, and high winds could take down trees and power lines.

In addition, the service said, roads could become dangerously slippery as rain loosens a summer-long buildup of oil, leaves and other debris.(Emphasis added).

A good side of this is the heavy amounts of rain will end the fire season in California this year during a time when Santa Anna winds are expected to be high according to Fox News.

Friday, October 09, 2009

Typhoon Melor strikes Japan

Typhoon Melor slammed the main Japanese island of Honshu Thursday morning with 75 mph winds. Two people were killed from flying debris.

Deaths as typhoon pounds Japan (Al Jazeera)

At least two people have been killed and dozens more injured in Japan, as a powerful typhoon swept its way up the main island of Honshu.

Typhoon Melor is the first such storm to make a direct hit on Japan in two years.

Packing gusts up to 200kmh, Melor made landfall before dawn on Thursday, tearing roofs off scores of buildings and forcing the cancellation of flights and train services.

According to Japan's Fire and Disaster Management Agency, more than 11,000 people have been taken to emergency shelters, while more than 40,000 homes were without electricity.

The two people confirmed killed were both struck by flying debris from trees felled or uprooted by the storm.

Slideshow of the storm:
In pictures: Typhoon hits Japan (BBC News)

The lingering risk from Melor is due to the potential for mudslides due to remaining rainand loose, waterlogged soil.

High landslide risk as typhoon batters Japan (The Age)
A POWERFUL typhoon has slammed into Japan's main island, leaving at least two people dead as violent winds damaged homes, uprooted trees and prompted fears of landslides.

Typhoon Melor, bringing gusts of up to 198 km/h, was cutting a swathe across densely populated central Japan - the first tropical storm to make landfall since 2007, the weather agency said. It brought heavy rain and strong winds that ripped roofs off houses, damaged walls and toppled trees, blocking roads and railways in central Japan.

The typhoon weakened slightly as it churned across the main island of Honshu, but ''is still very dangerous'', said Takeo Tanaka, a weather forecaster from the Meteorological Agency.

''The agency warned that extensive areas in Japan, including Tokyo and the western industrial hub of Osaka, were at high risk of landslides as the typhoon moved along the archipelago.

2010 Atlantic Hurricanes (courtesy of

NOAA Gulf of Mexico Radar (courtesy of

NOAA West Atlantic & Caribbean Radar (courtesy of

NOAA East Atlantic Radar (courtesy of