Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

Typhoon Nalgae to Follow in Nesat's Footsteps

2011-10-01T10:27:00.000-05:00

Image Courtesy of hko.gov.hk

Typhoon Nalgae Batters Northern Philippines After Making Landfall (Bernama.com)

MANILA, Oct 1 (Bernama) -- Typhoon Nalgae (local name Quiel) landed on northern Philippines before noon on Saturday, packing winds up to 195 km per hour, according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration ( PAGASA).

The typhoon, the second in a week, is expected to go through five provinces on Luzon island in north Philippines Saturday afternoon.

Quoting PAGASA, China's Xinhua news agency reported that Nalgae is expected to enhance the sothwest mansoon and will bring about scattered to widespread rains over the southern Luzon region.

--Snip--

The storm was tracking roughly the same path as Typhoon Nesat, which ravaged Luzon with huge floods on Tuesday.

--Snip--

Typhoon Nalgae Batters Flood Hit Philippines (bbc.co.uk)

Misery compounded

The storm is taking much the same route as Typhoon Nesat which hit the country on Tuesday leaving at least 52 people dead and thousands homeless.
Tens of thousands of residents have moved into evacuation centres or the homes of relatives or friends, but many areas are still heavily flooded from the earlier storm.

With more heavy rains expected, officials fear that floods resulting from the second hurricane will compound the misery of more than a million people still trapped after the first.

Several towns remain submerged, and the BBC's Kate McGeown in Manila says many residents are still on rooftops awaiting rescue from the first storm.

"I hope the [Nesat] floods will wash out to Manila Bay before the [Nalgae] runoff hits the area," disaster management chief Benito Ramos said, quoted by AFP news agency.

"If the latter catches up to the former, there won't be any rooftops left to see above the floodwaters."
Provincial disaster official Raul Agustin told ABS-CBN television that marooned flood victims were often reluctant to leave for fear their homes would be looted.

"When we send out rescue teams to help them, they ask for food instead," he said.

'Quiel' slightly weakens after hitting N. Luzon (bworldonline.com)

Quiel is the fifth storm to enter the country this month. Storms that develop between September and October tend to be the strongest as the country's weather shifts from southwest to northeast monsoon.

Typhoon Nesat aka Padring

2011-09-26T03:15:00.004-05:00

Video courtesy of westernpacificweather.com

Philippines Evacuates 100,000 ahead of Typhoon Nesat (blogs.voanews.com )

Officials in the Philippines have shut schools, canceled inter-island ferry service and ordered the evacuation of more than 100,000 people as a fast-moving typhoon approaches the country's east coast.

Forecasters say Typhoon Nesat will make landfall on the east coast of Luzon Tuesday and cross the island north of Manila with heavy downpours and winds of up to 215 kilometers per hour.

Disaster officials say Nesat could produce rainfall at 25 millimeters an hour, causing flash floods, landslides and storm surges in coastal areas.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimates Nesat will take 12 hours to cross the island of Luzon before it moves into the South China Sea.

NASA Earth Observatory Image (Below):

Article and Image Courtesy of NASA

Rain from Typhoon Nesat (called Pedring in the Philippines) caused widespread flooding in the Philippines on September 27 and 28, 2011.

The image, made from the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, which is based on data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, shows heavy rain along the path of the storm between September 23 and September 27.

The satellite data recorded more than 350 millimeters (14 inches) of rain across broad regions. Local rainfall totals may be higher. The image also shows an area of heavy rain over Vietnam and Hainan from Tropical Storm Haitang.

According to local news reports, the heavy rain from Nesat contributed to flooding across central Luzon, the largest island in the Philippines. The affected areas included key crop-growing regions.

An estimated 33,890 tons of rice were lost, said news reports. Nesat affected nearly 350,000 people and caused 33 deaths with 41 missing as of September 29.

Typhoon Roke Skims Fukushima

2011-09-21T19:33:00.000-05:00

Image courtesy of AP

Typhoon Roke Weakens After Crossing Japan Towards Kuril Islands (Bloomberg)

Typhoon Roke pelted parts of Japan with as much as 40 centimeters (15.7 inches) of rain, flooding streets, disrupting transportation and killing at least three people before moving back into the Pacific on a path for the Kuril Islands.

Roke was about 362 kilometers (225 miles) north-northeast of Tokyo with winds of winds of 130 kph, the Japanese Meteorological Agency said on its website at 5 a.m. local time.

The storm brought 40-kph winds to the area around the nuclear power plant in Fukushima stricken by an earthquake and tsunami earlier this year.

--SNIP--

Typhoon buffets Tokyo, dumps rain in Tsunami zone (Associated Press)

Officials at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, where engineers are still struggling with small radiation leaks due to tsunami damage, expressed relief that Typhoon Roke's driving winds and rain caused no immediate problems there other than a broken security camera.

"The worst seems to be over," said Takeo Iwamoto, spokesman for plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co., after the storm passed just west of the plant on its way north.

But the typhoon brought new misery to the northeastern region already slammed by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, dumping up to 17 inches (42 centimeters) of rain in some areas.

Authorities warned of a high risk of mudslides in that region. Hundreds of tsunami survivors in government shelters in the Miyagi state town of Onagawa were forced to evacuate for fear of flooding.

More than 200,000 households in central Japan were without electricity late Wednesday. Police and local media reported 13 people dead or missing in southern and central regions, many of them believed swept away by rivers swollen with rains.

The storm, packing sustained winds of up to 100 mph (162 kph), made landfall in the early afternoon near the city of Hamamatsu, about 125 miles (200 kilometers) west of Tokyo. The fast-moving storm went past the capital in the evening and then headed up into the northeast, where it was losing strength.

In Tokyo, where many rush hour commuter trains were suspended, thousands of commuters trying to rush home were stuck at stations across the sprawling city.

"The hotels in the vicinity are all booked up, so I'm waiting for the bullet train to restart," Hiromu Harada, a 60-year-old businessman, said dejectedly at Tokyo Station.

--SNIP--

At the Fukushima plant, engineers are still working to stabilize the reactors six months after three of them melted down when the tsunami disabled the plant's power and back-up generators.

Iwamoto said the storm passed without damaging the reactors' cooling systems, which are crucial to keeping them under control. However, a closed-circuit camera that shows exteriors of the reactor buildings abruptly stopped, he said.

Workers were trying to prevent pools of contaminated water from flooding and leaking outside the complex, said Junichi Matsumoto, another power company spokesman.

"The contaminated water levels have been rising, and we are watching the situation very closely to make sure it stays there," Matsumoto told reporters.

--SNIP--

Tropical Storm Lee stalls at the coast

2011-09-03T21:10:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Lee has essentially stalled at the coast just as the eye of this storm as crossed on to land. The official forward motion for Lee is a mere 3 MPH to the north northwest. The slow forward motion of this storm is causing it to drop copious amounts of water on southern Louisiana and Mississippi. The storm's windspeed has decreased slightly with current windspeeds at 50 MPH and gusts of 70 MPH.

Lumbering Tropical Storm Lee drenches Gulf states with rain (CNN)

New Orleans (CNN) -- Slow-moving Tropical Storm Lee churned toward the Gulf Coast Saturday, dumping heavy rains over the southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

At one point, approximately 38,000 customers in Louisiana had lost power because of the storm, but that figure was cut to less than 12,000, Entergy reported.

Lee, which is lumbering north-northwest at 4 miles per hour, is expected to cross the Louisiana coast Saturday evening and then move slowly across the southern part of the state on Sunday.

"We have severe weather warnings and tornado warnings in effect for parts of the state and residents everywhere need to use extreme caution," Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said. "Tropical Storm Lee is moving slowly, as expected, and we are already seeing flooded roads and other effects from rising water levels throughout South Louisiana."

--snip--

Parts of southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama could see 10 to 15 inches of rain through Sunday night, with isolated totals of up to 20 inches, forecasters said.

The very heavy rains are expected to cause flooding in low lying areas abd spread into Alabama and Georgia over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lee hits Louisiana, Mississippi with heavy rain, gusty winds (WJLA)

JEAN LAFITTE, La. (AP) - Bands of heavy rain and strong wind gusts from Tropical Storm Lee knocked out power to thousands in Louisiana and Mississippi on Saturday and prompted evacuations in bayou towns like Jean Lafitte, where water was lapping at the front doors of some homes.

The sluggish storm stalled just offshore for several hours before resuming its slow march northward late in the afternoon. Landfall was expected later in the day, and the storm threatened to dump more than a foot of rain across the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast in coming days. No injuries were reported, but there were scattered instances of water entering low-lying homes and businesses in Louisiana.

To the east, coffers were suffering at many coastal businesses that depend on a strong Labor Day weekend. Alabama beaches that would normally be packed were largely empty, and rough seas closed the Port of Mobile. Mississippi's coastal casinos, however, were open and reporting brisk business.

--snip--

The center of the slow-moving storm was about 55 miles (90 kilometers) south-southwest of Lafayette, La., Saturday evening, spinning intermittent bands of stormy weather, alternating with light rain and occasional sunshine. It was moving north-northwest at about 4 mph (6 kph) in the late afternoon.

Its maximum sustained winds dropped to 50 mph (75 kph), and their intensity was expected to decrease further by Sunday. Tropical storm warnings stretched from the Louisiana-Texas state line to Destin, Fla.

The National Weather Service in Slidell said parts of New Orleans received between 6 and 8 inches of rain between Thursday morning and Saturday afternoon, and that coastal Mississippi points reported more than 6 inches. Officials in some suburban and rural areas of southeast Louisiana reported more than 10 inches.

Tropical Storm Lee forms on Louisiana Gulf Coast

2011-09-02T16:15:00.003-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

Tropical Storm Lee has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just south of New Orleans and is already making its way on shore. Tropical Storm warnings are already in place along the coast from Sabine Pass, TX to Pascagoula, MS.

Tropical Storm Lee could hit as near-hurricane with 20 inches of rain (Christian Science Monitor)

The storm center is expected to close in on the southeastern coast of Louisiana this weekend at near-hurricane strength, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It is currently is projected to dump 10 to 15 inches of rain on southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, with isolated pockets getting up to 20 inches.

Forecasters say they expect a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet along the coasts affected by the storm's on-shore winds.

The potential for large rainfall totals stems from the significant amounts of moisture feeding the storm and from its glacial pace, forecasters say. The storm system is moving at a lethargic 2 miles an hour. (By contrast, hurricane Katia, currently in the Atlantic, is traveling a bit more smartly along its path at some 15 miles an hour.)

Moisture bands from TS Lee are already coming ashore Friday afternoon and slowly moving to the north and east.

Radar graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

The slow moving is expected to dump close to two feet of water on draught parched lands in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Heavy thunderstorms are predicted as far as north Georgia by Monday.

Tropical Storm Lee's biggest threat is flooding, Gov. Bobby Jindal warns

The main threat from Tropical Storm Lee is flooding caused by heavy rainfall, Gov. Bobby Jindal said Friday, though higher tides accompanying the storm already have prompted voluntary evacuation recommendations for Grand Isle and lower Lafourche Parish.

"Flooding is our primary concern," because of the slow-moving nature of the storm, Jindal told reporters at a news conference at the state's Emergency Operations Center in Baton Rouge, with heavy rain expected to fall on south Louisiana through Tuesday. He said that in some areas, tornadoes may also be reported.

"We expect it to drop a significant amount of rain totaling 10 to 15 inches in some areas and up to 20 inches in isolated areas" in the next few days, Jindal said . He said there is a remote chance the system could develop into a Category 1 hurricane before it blows through the area..

"Tides could be 2 to 5 feet higher than normal," he said. Sustained winds could be 25 to 35 miles an hour with some gusts 40 to 50 miles an hour, Jindal said.

The governor said that as of midday, southernmost parts of two parishes had called for a voluntary evacuation of low-lying areas: the Grand Isle community of Jefferson Parish and the area of Lafourche Parish south of the Golden Meadow floodgates. He said about 25,000 feet of "tiger dams" owned by Jefferson Parish were being deployed to the Lafitte area in anticipation of flooding there.

Hurricane Irene's Storm Track

2011-08-27T09:53:00.002-05:00

This is the projected storm track for Hurricane Irene courtesy of Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene slams into North Carolina

2011-08-27T09:09:00.003-05:00

Radar Image courtesy of Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene came ashore near Cape Hatteras this morning around 7:35 am according to The Weather Channel. The storm came ashore with 85 MPH winds as a strong Category 1 hurricane. Irene's intensity was significantly reduced compared to just a day earlier when the storm was a Category 3 in the early morning and a Cat 2 throughout much of the afternoon and night.

Hurricane Irene makes landfall in N.C.; may hit Washington area Saturday night (Washington Post)

The brunt of the storm was moving north from Cape Hatteras and was expected to arrive in the Washington area late Saturday and into Sunday morning before heading toward New York and New England.

Hurricane-force winds battered the North Carolina coast, knocking out power in places.

--snip--

The storm was on a track that experts have feared for decades as they watched the rapid expansion of coastal resorts and housing developments in the lowlands behind them. They have worried that a storm tracking along the shore line, renewing its force over the warm Atlantic and then ripping with each rotation like a circular saw into coastal areas, could produce unprecedented devastation.

“It looks like the track of Irene is going to have a major impact along the East Coast starting in the Carolinas all the way up through Maine,” said Craig Fugate, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Irene's weakening averted a worst case scenario but no one should assume that this means that there is no danger. Tropical Storm warnings extend very far inland and both a strong cat 1 hurricane as well as tropical storm winds can be very dangerous.

Additionally, the storm surge built up when Irene was a Cat 3 storm. As we have seen in the past, when a hurricane reaches high intensity and then decreases, the storm surge does not necessarily settle down and certainly not as quickly as the winds do. This will be a major concern as the hurricane progresses up the coast towards New York City and New Jersey. The coast in this region forms a right angle which will act as a funnel collecting the high surge of water and funnelling it up into New York Harbor thratening lower Manhatten, Queens, Long Island and the Jersey shore with dangerous surf.

Hurricane Evacuation Orders Ignored By Many (NBC News)

As Hurricane Irene spins toward New York and New Jersey, more than 1 million tri-staters in vulnerable coastal areas are under evacuation orders -- and many say they won't leave.

In Belmar, N.J. on Saturday morning, about a dozen surfers were ignoring warnings and taking advantage of the rough seas.

Nearby, resident Ava Nardelli was taking her morning walk and said her plan was to stay put.

"We're going to ride it out," she said.

--snip--

In New Jersey, mandatory evacuations were ordered for Cape May County, coastal Atlantic County, Long Beach Island and a growing list of Monmouth County shore communities.

New York City's primary evacuation zone includes Battery Park City, Coney Island, Manhattan Beach, Far Rockaway and Midland Beach and South Beach in Staten Island. See the zone in orange on this map.

"There's no way in hell that we are leaving home," said Pat Jones, a resident of New York's Rockaways for 30 years. "This is my home, and I'm staying here and protecting my home. Wouldn't you?"

Mayor Bloomberg said Saturday that ignoring evacuation orders "isn't cute."

“Heed these warnings and get yourself to safety before the bad weather hits,” he said.

New York City will be suspending operation of mass transit in the affected areas by noon today (Saturday) and people need to understand that once the storm starts to hit the area, there are no longer any options to leave. If you live in a flood prone region that has been identified as an evacuation zone, the best situation is to leave if ordered or requested to do so.

Remember the adage - "Run from the water, Hide form the wind". Most deaths during tropical weath are due to drownings in floods, not from wind. So if your area is prone to flood, get out. A Cat 1 hurricane could bring 3 - 5 feet of water ashore above what the rain and normal tides are bringing.

Tropical Cyclone Talas Brewing

2011-08-27T07:52:00.002-05:00

TS Talas [15W] - Update #002 (www.thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.com)

Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) moving NW across the open sea with little change of strength

This weekend, TS TALAS is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) located over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon.

SNIP

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*

TALAS (15W) is expected to move on a slow Northerly track throughout the forecast period with increasing intensity. This system will remain over open waters. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Intensifying over the open sea...tracking North slowly...about 342 km SSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8PM AUG 26: 22.1N 139.7E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EVENING (SAT): Upgraded to a Typhoon...about 249 km SW of Iwo To [8PM AUG 27: 23.1N 139.7E @ 130kph].

Typhoon Mina (International Name: Nanmadol)

2011-08-25T02:47:00.010-05:00

New typhoon threatens northern Phlippines, Taiwan (taiwannews.com)

A slow-moving typhoon may set off heavy rains, flash floods and landslides in the mountainous northern Philippines before gaining strength and barreling toward Taiwan.

Philippine government forecaster Raymund Ordinario says Typhoon Nanmadol is swirling 183 miles (295 kilometers) east of northeastern Aurora Province Thursday with sustained winds of 74 mph (120 kph) and gusts of 93 mph (150 kph).

Ordinario says the typhoon may not hit land but is expected to bring heavy rains with its wide cloud band and slow movement. Villagers in low-lying areas have been warned about possible floods and landslides.

Nanmadol is the 13th of 20 expected weather disturbances to hit the disaster-prone Philippines this year

Image Courtesy of Hong Kong Observatory iPhone Application

Video courtesy of: ITN News

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane IRENE

2011-08-22T11:44:00.002-05:00

Irene has grown into a Category 1 hurricane and has been crossing the Caribbean inflicting damage on many of the islands there. Irenen is currently making landfall on Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic likely by mid day. Forecasts call for Hurricane Irene to increase in strength potentially becoming a major hurricane before striking the southeastern US by mid-week. Sotrm warnings are already in place throughout the Caribbean and for parts of southeastern Florida.

Whether Irene strikes Florida and comes inland or skirts the coast is yet to be determined but it is certain that flooding will be a major concern. Preparations should be underway to evacuate if you live in a flood prone area or to battten down if wind is a major concern.

Irene is the first hurricane to threaten the US coast since 2009 as no storms made landfall last year even though it was a very active season.

Remember the adage: Run from the water; Hide from the wind.

------------------------------

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2011 9:00 GMT

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Puerto Rico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the Dominican Republic
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 90% currently
the British Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 85% currently
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
the Turks & Caicos Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Francisco De Macoris (19.3 N, 70.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Santo Domingo (18.5 N, 69.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.5 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Depression Merbok

2011-08-07T10:45:00.005-05:00

Hurricane Season 2011: Tropical Storm Merbok (Western North Pacific Ocean) (Nasa.gov)

NASA Sees Typhoon Muifa Almost Twice as Big as Tropical Storm Merbok

In one image, NASA's Aqua satellite captured two tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific today, Tropical Storm Merbok and the large Typhoon Muifa. NASA Satellite imagery shows that Muifa is almost twice as big as Merbok [below].

Image courtesy of Nasa.Gov

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured Typhoon Muifa near Okinawa, Japan and Tropical Storm Merbok, farther east in the western Pacific at 4:35 UTC (12:35 a.m. EDT) on August 5, 2011. By having the storms side-by-side in one image, it is much easier to see how Merbok is a lot less organized than the more powerful Muifa. Muifa also has an eye, although cloud-filled, whereas Merbok does not.

--Snip--

Tropical storm Merbok is not a threat to land areas, and is moving around in the open waters of the North Pacific. It is located 675 miles west-northwest of Wake Island near 26.8N and 155.3E. Merbok's maximum sustained winds are near 50 knots, and tropical-storm force winds extend 120 miles from the center, making the storm 240 miles in diameter. Merbok is moving to the north-northwest at 8 knots and creating 21-foot high waves.

Merbok is strengthening as it moves northwest and is expected to make typhoon strength before weakening and curving northeast.

Muifa Loses Steam as it Crashes Into China

2011-08-07T10:22:00.004-05:00

Image courtesy of Wunderground.com

Typhoon Muifa weakens as it moves further up China's East coast.

Gusty Typhoon Muifa set to Hit China (CNN.com)

Typhoon Muifa is set to bring gusty winds and rainfall to coastal areas of China late Saturday or on Sunday, after drenching the southern Japanese island of Okinawa.
The typhoon -- the ninth to hit China this year -- is headed for Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, Xinhua News Agency reported.
The storm is expected to be east of the city of Shanghai, a major business and banking center, within the next 12 to 24 hours, CNN meteorologists say.
However, the typhoon will be weaker and less organized than it was previously.

Typhoon Muifa aka Typhoon Kabayan

2011-07-31T04:45:00.004-05:00

Image courtesy of: www.usno.navy.mil

Super Typhoon 11W (Muifa) www.stripes.com

1 p.m. Sunday, July 31, Japan time: They’re calling it Super Typhoon Muifa for a reason. In a span of less than 18 hours, Muifa went from Category I- to Category IV-equivalent status and in relatively short order should become a Cat V-equivalent storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

--Snip--

Tropical Storm Don makes landfall; weakens

2011-07-30T10:04:00.003-05:00

Tropical Storm Don came ashore last night around 50 miles south of Corpus Christi. By 10 pm local time the center of the storm was over land and the winds were dying down. Don is not a tropical depression and all warnings have been cancelled.

Tropical Storm Don Downgraded at Landfall; All Warnings End(SF Gate)

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Don has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved across the Texas coastline near Baffin Bay last night, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The depression was about 40 miles south of Corpus Christi, Texas, with maximum winds of 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour, according to a hurricane center advisory issued just before 10 p.m. local time. All storm warnings for the coast have been canceled.

"Don is forecast to dissipate in a day or so as it moves farther inland," the advisory said. "Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the winds are also rapidly decreasing."

At its height, Don forced the shutdown of more than 11.9 percent of oil production and 6.2 percent of gas output from the Gulf of Mexico, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement said yesterday.

Hopefully Don will bring some much needed rain to the area, however it seems as it the rain chances are spotty. For a storm that many people were looking forward to to help bring some needed moisture, it seems as it Don may disappoint.

Tropical Storm Don: Winds Ease Close to Texas Coast
(Christian Post)

Don is expected to disperse by Saturday as it moves further inland. The National Hurricane Center warns, “Wind gusts could still be experienced over water to the north and east of the center.”

These conditions should continue over the next several hours.

The center reported that storm surge and tides would keep water levels raised as high as one to two feet above ground level. This is true for areas along the Texas south coast. The high water levels will begin to recede as the storm moves inland.

Unfortunately for the region suffering a drought currently, the amount of rainfall expected has also dissipated. South Texas is predicted to receive only one to two inches, according to the center.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has labeled this as the third worst drought in the state’s recorded history. The decrease in rainfall is bad news for farmers dealing with dried-up cattle ponds and farm fields in the Lone Star state.

Tropical Storm Don heads for South Texas

2011-07-29T09:05:00.002-05:00

The fourth named tropical system of the 2011 season has formed and is heading for South Texas. Tropical Storm Don looks to bring some much needed rain to far south Texas and northern Mexico beginning this afternoon or tonight. From the tracking forecasts, it appears that Don will be coming ashore in the vacinity of Corpus Christi with 50 MPH winds sustained winds.

Don closes on Texas coast, will spread much-needed rain/ (CNN International)

(CNN) -- Tropical Storm Don set its sights on south Texas on Friday as it churned across the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm, which would bring much-needed rainfall to the parched state, is forecast to make landfall along the Texas coast late Friday night or early Saturday.

Don had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph) with higher gusts at 5 a.m. ET, quickly spinning toward the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph).

The storm was about 290 miles (470 km) southeast of Corpus Christi and about 245 miles (395 km) east of Brownsville.

"Some strengthening is possible until landfall, with weakening likely by Saturday morning," the hurricane center said.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km), but mainly to the north and east of the storm's center.

It's not often that news of a tropical storm is welcomed, but Don's expected heavy rainfall may prove to be a silver lining for Texas.

"Some parts of Texas are more than 15 inches below average (for rainfall). This storm will likely not be a drought-buster, but could at least put a dent in and around where the storm makes landfall," CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen said Thursday. If Don "does not intensify into a hurricane, this is likely a good thing."

Any rain would be a welcome relief for many Texas farmers, who are suffering from the third worst drought in recorded history, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Any potential strengthening prior to TS Don making landfall is expected to be slight. There is little if any potential for Don to grow to a minimal hurricane.

Sometimes a tropical storm can be a welcome thing when it helps to relieve drought situations. Texas, Oklahoma and some other areas in this region have been suffering from a very severe drought this year. As TS Don moves over land, it would be expected that the moisture from this storm is spread throughout much of the region. Hopefully this will prove to be a good thing for crops and livestock as well as us regular folks.

However, as usual, when the storm is coming ashore, we aware of the conditions and follow the instructions of the civil authorities. TS Don is moving at a fast pace and would not be expected to cause excessive flooding, BUT sometimes a tropical storm can cause more flooding danger than full blown hurricanes.

So remember to secure any outdoor belongings, watch the water levels, stay away from rising water and hunker down to hide from the wind.

Typhoon Nock-Ten Strikes Philippines, Heading Towards Southern China

2011-07-27T05:40:00.003-05:00

Image Courtesy of: www.wunderground.com

Storm Nock-Ten slams Philippines, 20 dead (Reuters)

MANILA (Reuters) - Tropical storm Nock-Ten slammed into the eastern mountain areas of the Philippines' main island Luzon on Wednesday, killing 20 but sparing the country's major rice-producing provinces, disaster and weather officials said.

Nock-Ten, the tenth storm to hit the poor Southeast Asian country this year, caused minor damage to rice farms and coconut-growing areas when it hit land mid-morning on Wednesday.

It is expected to exit towards the South China Sea later in the day.

"The threat in the capital region has decreased," Rene Paciente of the state weather bureau told a news conference, adding Nock-Ten was expected to weaken, but may bring heavy rains in northern Luzon's eastern mountain ranges.

Schools and some public offices were closed on Wednesday, but domestic flights to the central and southern Philippines were operating normally after disruptions on Tuesday. Ferry operations were still suspended.

At least 10 people were earlier reported killed by drowning, landslides and falling trees caused by the storm, which brought gusts of up to 120 kph (74 mph).

More than 645,000 people had been affected by the storm.

Tens of thousands sought temporary shelter in school buildings and public buildings in areas battered by Nock-Ten, said Benito Ramos, executive director of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

An average of 20 typhoons hit the Philippines every year, killing people and destroying infrastructure, property and crops. The typhoons have been striking with greater intensity in recent years.

Typhoon Ma-On Approaches Japan

2011-07-18T09:06:00.005-05:00

Image courtesy of: www.usno.navy.mil

Tepco Rushes to Cover Fukushima Nuclear Plant as Typhoon Ma-on Nears Japan (Bloomberg.com)

Tokyo Electric Power Co. is rushing to install a cover over a building at its crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant to shield it from wind and rain as Typhoon Ma-on approaches Japan’s coast from the south.

Work on the cover for the turbine building of the No. 3 reactor started at about 8:30 a.m. today, Junichi Matsumoto, a general manager at the utility known as Tepco, said at briefing in Tokyo. The transfer of tainted water for storage in a barge docked next to the plant was halted, spokesman Satoshi Watanabe said by telephone.

The eye of Ma-on, which is categorized as “extremely strong,” was about 420 kilometers (260 miles) southeast of the city of Kagoshima at 4 p.m. today, or 1,200 kilometers from the Fukushima plant, according to the website of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The storm was moving north at 25 kilometers per hour with winds blowing at 157 kph. Ma-on is forecast to continuing heading north and may cross coast of the southwestern island of Kyushu after 6 a.m. tomorrow. A forecast track from the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicates the storm may pass over the Fukushima plant by July 21.

The Japanese weather agency issued warnings for floods and high waves along the southern coast from Okinawa to Tokyo.

Tropical Depression Tokage

2011-07-15T19:31:00.011-05:00

Tropical depression Tokage is developing in the North West Pacific basin. It formed not long after typhoon Ma-on, but is projected to get snuffed out.

Image: www.wunderground.com

The above image shows tropical depression (TD) Tokage forming (bottom center) and heading up to cross paths with Ma-On. Click on it for a larger version.

Nasa Sees Birth Tropical Depression Tokage Fighting Typhoon Ma-On (www.nasa.gov)

The ninth tropical depression of the western North Pacific hurricane season has been born and NASA satellite data shows that the heaviest rainfall is falling at about 1 inch per hour. Satellite data also shows that Tokage is in an "atmospheric battle" with nearby Typhoon Ma-on.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite captured an image of the some of the rainfall occurring in the newborn tropical depression on July 15 at 0606 UTC (2:06 a.m. EDT). The rainfall is displaced about 50 nautical miles to the west-southwest from the center of Tokage's circulation. That's an indication that wind shear is taking a toll on the newborn storm and pushing those showers and thunderstorms away from the storm's center. Further, satellite imagery shows that the low-level circulation center is also fully exposed to outside winds. [Below]

Image: Nasa

At 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) on July 15, Tropical Depression Tokage had maximum sustained winds near 25 knots (29 mph/46 kmh). Tokage is moving east and away from the Philippines at 11 knots (13 mph/20 kmh). It was located about 395 nautical miles north of Palau. Palau is an island nation in the western North Pacific Ocean. It is located about 500 miles (800 km) east of the Philippines.

Tokage is currently fighting with Typhoon Ma-on, also in the vicinity. Outflow winds from Typhoon Ma-on are preventing convection and thunderstorms from developing in Tokage, even though Tokage is in warm sea surface temperatures.

The forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center think that Tokage is going to be short-lived and knocked out by Ma-on. As Tokage continues tracking north-northeastward, it is expected to become full absorbed into Typhoon Ma-on over the weekend.

Typhoon Ma-on

2011-07-15T19:13:00.005-05:00

Typhoon 08W (Ma-On) (www.stripes.com)

The eighth topical storm of the season gains traction. Some forecasters predict that due to prevailing atmospheric conditions, it has the potential to gain in strength or at least not weaken until it makes landfall or higher latitudes. Estimates are that is will reach Japan by Monday.

Midnight Friday, July 15, Japan time: Typhoon Ma-on now appears to be headed onto a sharp curve that will take it even further east of Okinawa, Sasebo Naval Base and Marine Corps Air Station iwakuni than earlier forecast, and moving faster than expected, according to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track.

Ma-on is now forecast to push 315 miles east-northeast of Okinawa by 4 p.m. Monday, at which point it will still be a powerful Category IV-equivalent storm, packing 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at its center, but those effects should be quite distant from Okinawa.

As for Sasebo, the JTWC forecasts Ma-on to skirt 230 miles to the east at about 6 p.m. Tuesday. It’s projected to miss Iwakuni 161 miles to the southeast – almost twice the distance from our previous report – and likely could miss Shikoku Island altogether.

The JTWC then forecasts Ma-on to plow along the south coast of Japan’s main Honshu island, first striking land just south of Osaka, then again skimming along the coastal cities of Hamamatsu and Shizuoka on Wednesday evening.

Even then, despite being so far north, the air and sea surface temperatures are warm enough that Ma-on will still retain Category II strength, 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at its center.
What that will mean for the Tokyo area is too soon to say – Ma-on is still five days away.

--Snip--

Image courtesy of Nasa

Typhoon Meari: South Korea - Heading North

2011-06-26T08:41:00.005-05:00

Typhoon kills two, knocks out power, suspends domestic flights (Yonhap News)

Image: Yonhap News

SEOUL, June 26 (Yonhap) -- Typhoon Meari brought heavy downpours and gusts across South Korea Sunday to kill two people and knock out power and suspend domestic flights.

A rescue official in South Korea's eastern province of Gangwon was killed during a search-and-rescue operation for a missing toddler, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) said.

A student presumed to be 15 years old was found dead after being washed away in rapid torrents in Chungju, 147 kilometers southeast of Seoul, according to the local anti-disaster agency.

The gusts knocked over power lines in the southern resort island of Jeju, leaving hundreds of people without power for up to one hour and forcing several airports on the island and in other provinces to cancel dozens of domestic flights.

Still, no disruptions of international flights were reported at the country's two major airports in Seoul and Incheon, west of Seoul, according to aviation officials.

Meari, the Korean word for "echo," passed through the country's southwest coast early Sunday and was expected to reach North Korean waters later in the day before landing on the northern part of North Korea on Monday morning, the NEMA said on its Web site.

The North issued a typhoon warning and braced for heavy rains and strong winds, the country's state broadcaster said.

North Korea has launched a nationwide campaign to try to prevent damage from heavy rainfall, the country's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Saturday.

The Korean Peninsula is expected to be rid of the typhoon by Tuesday morning, the NEMA said.

The downpours also submerged several houses, 581 hectares of farmland and dozens of greenhouses while destroying several streets and a rail bridge in the country's central and southeastern areas.

Meanwhile, the Seoul Metropolitan Government has set up a disaster control center to deal with possible damage to property and other structures from the typhoon.

On the way to the Korean Peninsula, the typhoon pounded several Southeast Asian countries, resulting in 13 deaths in Vietnam and 15 people missing in the Philippines, according to news reports.

Last year, powerful Typhoon Kompasu swept through the country, killing five people and causing some 23.3 billion won (US$19.9 million) worth of property damage.

Typhoon Meari : Moves Up China's East Coast to South Korea

2011-06-26T08:15:00.007-05:00

East China coast braces for tropical storm Meari (Xinhua News)
Image: Zinhua News

East China coastal regions are bracing for strong gales and heavy rains as tropical storm Meari moves northward.

The tropical storm will shave off the eastern coasts of Shandong Peninsula or may make a landfall around the region between Sunday afternoon and evening before shifting to head northeastward to the border areas between China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, according to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) Sunday morning.

Off the coast of east Shandong Province, the stormy weather sank three ships with 17 people on board. Fifteen people have been rescued while two fishermen were still missing as of midday Sunday, said a spokesman. according to a spokesman with the Shandong Maritime Safety Administration.

Meari, with a wind speed of 90 km per hour near its center, was moving northward at the speed of 40 km per hour Sunday morning, twice as fast as it traveled Saturday afternoon, according to the Shenyang Municipal Meteorological Center.

Gales whipped through the Bohai Strait and over the northern part of the Yellow Sea on Sunday and torrential rains pounded most parts of Liaoning, particularly the cities of Dalian and Dandong, according to the center.

The typhoon alarm for Shanghai has been lifted as Meari's impact on the city was less severe than expected, said the Shanghai Municipal Meteorological Center.

Tropical Cyclone "Falcon" [International Name: Meari]

2011-06-22T07:04:00.006-05:00

New low pressure area to enter Philippine area of responsibility as tropical cyclone Falcon (Vox Bikol)

Not long after Egay (Haima) made landfall along China's south coast, another ex tropical low formed off the coast of Philippines.

Exit Egay, enter Falcon:
Image courtesy of: Hong Kong Observatory iPhone application

Naga City Philippines (June 21, 2011 7:25 A.M.) - A low pressure area (LPA) South East of the Visayas, although still too far to affect any part of the Philippines, is fast organizing and expected to become Tropical Cyclone 'Falcon' today as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Threatened areas include Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and the rest of Luzon as the weather disturbance moves Westerly at 13 kilometers per hour in the general direction of Eastern Luzon, packing a center wind of 40 kilometers per hour with gustiness up to 55 kilometers per hour.

As of 6:00 A.M. today, the center of Tropical Disturbance 99W is located 725 kilometers East Southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or 1000 kilometers East Southeast of Naga City at coordinates 10.9º North Latitude 132.0º East Longitude.

Tropical Storm Haima (aka Egay) Hits Southern China

2011-06-22T06:40:00.015-05:00

Image: [A man cycles on a stone bridge submerged underwater past a boat at the flooded Donghu Lake in Wuhan, Hubei province, June 21, 2011] Courtesy of: Reuters.

Tropical storm "Haima" has brought gusty wind and squally showers to Hong Kong. Other parts of Southern China have suffered from flooding. The Hong Kong ovservatory has hoisted their "signal number three" wind advisory, as a precautionary measure:

Hong Kong Observatory (Precautionary Measures)

Secure all loose objects, particularly those on balconies and rooftops. Flower pots and other objects likely to be blown away should be taken indoors. Secure hoardings, scaffoldings and temporary structures. Drains should be cleared to avoid blockage and overflows. Stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports. Fishing vessels should seek shelter without delay. Listen to radio and TV announcements and browse the Observatory website for further information about the tropical cyclone.

Storm brings worsening weather to Hong Kong (RTHK)

Heavy rain and strong winds are expected to continue to hit Hong Kong overnight, as Tropical Cyclone Haima passes the territory. The strong wind signal number three remains in force.
However, the Observatory says the chances of a higher signal are low. Winds have brought down dozens of trees around the territory. One person has been injured.
Some services have been affected and kindergartens and special schools have been suspended. But there have been no reports of flooding or landslides.

Tropical storm "Haima" to bring heavy rain (dongguantoday)
Image courtesy of: whatsonsanya
Tropical storm Haima is expected to land between Taishan and Xuwen, west Guangdong tonight, bringing heavy rain to most areas in Guangdong.

The storm was 480 km southeast to Yangjiang at 8 p.m. yesterday and moving northwest. The provincial Emergency Management Office has launched IV emergency reaction plan.

Rainstorms are expected in Zhanjiang, Maoming, Yangjiang, Jiangmen, Zhuhai and Zhongshan, heavy rains are expected in other Pearl River Delta area and east and northwest Guangdong from this afternoon to tomorrow.

Cyclone Passes Close to Hong Kong

2011-06-21T01:56:00.010-05:00

Strengthening winds - possibly reaching gale force - are expected this evening together with showers as a tropical depression moves closer to Hong Kong. For most parts of the city it's business as usual:

Image by Slipstream (taken earlier today)

Cyclone bears down on Hong Kong (The Standard)

The Standby No 1 Signal was hoisted at 9.35pm last night as the depression moved within 100 kilometers of Dongsha and less than 500km from Hong Kong.
Hong Kong Observatory scientific officer Wong Wing-tak said on its current course it will pass quite close to Hong Kong tomorrow.
"We expect it will get quite close but not a direct hit," Wong said, adding the cyclone is still likely to bring squally showers and gusty winds.
Heavy showers are forecast for tomorrow and Thursday with occasional showers for the rest of the week and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Wong said on average Hong Kong experiences about six tropical cyclones each year though not all hit the territory directly.
While the current cyclone does not appear strong, it may intensify. "This one is now very weak but we expect it to interact with the cloud system nearby and that after the interaction it will become bigger and stronger," Wong said.
The incoming cyclone may also have contributed to the flush of hot weather Hong Kong has experienced over the past few days.
"When there's a tropical cyclone in the area, the air that goes up will have to come down somewhere else," Wong said. "When the air subsides it will heat up the atmosphere."
A hot weather warning has been in effect for several days and the Department of Health is warning residents to take measures to avoid heatstroke and sunburn.
--Snip--

Tropical Storm Sarika

2011-06-10T07:19:00.014-05:00

Screenshot: Hong Kong Observatory (iPhone App)

Tropical storm Sarika sprung up during the early hours Friday morning (HKT). Some casualties have been reported.

Six dead as storm exits Philippines

MANILA — Six people were killed and 27 others were missing at sea as Tropical Storm Sarika headed out of Philippine waters Friday with many communities still flooded, rescuers said.
Four people drowned in the major southern island of Mindanao earlier this week while a boy died after falling into a swollen creek in Batangas city near Manila, and a woman drowned on the central island of Tablas, they said.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said 26 Filipino fishermen were missing near the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
One crew member of a barge went missing as the vessel, which was carrying agricultural products, was driven by strong winds off the town of Sariaya, south of Manila, it added.
Several hundred people remained at evacuation centres across Luzon early Friday while waiting for floodwaters to recede, the disaster council said in its latest update.
Sarika was heading for southeastern China on Friday with peak winds of 65 kilometres (40 miles) an hour, after brushing the west coast of the main Philippine island of Luzon, the state weather service said.

As Sarika swings past Hong Kong, the T1 signal has been hoisted as a precaution. Sarika is not forecast to strengthen, and is anticipated to mainly bring a fresh breeze, high humidity and squally showers.

Weather: Hong Kong issues alert v.s. 'Sarika

As tropical storm "Dodong" (international name Sarika) left Philippine territory and headed for China before noon Friday, Hong Kong authorities issued a standby signal for the approaching cyclone.

The Hong Kong Observatory issued a "number one standby signal" as "Sarika" neared China, although it said it does not expect to issue a Strong Wind Signal within the day.

"The Standby Signal, No. 1, is in force. This means that a tropical cyclone now (centered) within about 800 (kilometers) of Hong Kong may affect us," it said.

According to the latest forecast track, "Sarika will maintain some distance from Hong Kong today and local winds are not expected to strengthen significantly. The chance of issuing Strong Wind Signal No. 3 today is not high," it added.

Shortly after making landfall on the south coast of china, it's forecast to weaken into an ex tropical low before it eventually dissolves. This is estimated to happen within the next two to three days.

Adrian becomes 1st East Pac hurricane - grows fast

2011-06-09T21:46:00.002-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

The storm that was tropical depression 1E just a day ago has now grown into a major Category 4 hurricane. Hurricane Adrian became a named storm early Wednesday and grew to hurricane strength by the end of the day. Since then the storm has continued to rapidly intensify reaching sustained windspeeds of 140 MPH with gusts of 165 MPH.

Adrian Becomes Category 4 Hurricane(AccuWeather)

Tropical Storm Adrian, the first hurricane of 2011, is now a Category 4 storm in the eastern Pacific.

Adrian was upgraded to a hurricane Wednesday evening and was upgraded to Category 4 status at 4 p.m. PDT on Thursday.

After organizing into the first tropical depression of the 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season on Tuesday morning, rapid strengthening continued throughout the day. The depression was named Tropical Storm Adrian on Tuesday.

Adrian is forecast to strengthen further before steadily weakening as it enters cooler waters. Adrian's path is to the west northwest essentially parallel to the Mexican coast and is not expected to affect land.

Tropical Depression 1E forms in the East Pacific

2011-06-07T10:38:00.002-05:00

Tropical depression 1E has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. Current computer models indicate that this storm will most likely track in a north-westerly direction parallel to the Mexican coast.

This storm is likely to organize further into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours becoming TS Adrian. The expectation is that the storm will continue to strengthen into a hurricane by the end of the week.

Graphics courtesy of Weather Underground

Tornado Hits Springfield Massachusetts

2011-06-02T07:35:00.004-05:00

Video Courtesy: WGGB (www.wggb.com)

Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Wednesday

2011-05-31T10:38:00.003-05:00

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins tomorrow (Wednesday June 1) and it promises to be another busy one. Last year was a real doozy with the very unusual aspect of there being no US landfall events throughout the entire year. For such a busy season this was very strange indeed. It is unlikely that we will be spared this year.

Forecasters: 2011 Tropical Storm Season Busy, But Slower Than 2010 (Property Casualty 360)

Another weather forecasting team is predicting an active hurricane season for 2011, calling for an above-average number of storms to form in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.

Earth Networks’ WeatherBug meteorology team foresees a lower number of expected hurricanes in comparison to 2010, but its numbers are still trending above what is considered to be a normal tropical storm season.

Specifically, Earth Networks expects a total of 13-14 named storms to form, with 7-8 becoming hurricanes. Of those, it expects four will become strong enough to be classified at “intense” storms—Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

An average tropical storm season is 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes.

The key factor in why 2010 was so active of a year was La Nina. La Nina conditions typically favor the development of tropical activity in part by lowering the pressure in the Atlantic Basin and also by promoting warmer water in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This year La Nina is expected to weaken. Also the sea surface temperatures are not as high as they were this time last year.

The combination of a weakening La Nina plus slightly lower sea surface temperatures is expected to lessen the tropical activity this year, however it is still expected to be an above average year.

NOAA Hurricane Outlook Indicates an Above-Normal Atlantic Season (AccuWeather)

Climate factors considered for this outlook are:

* The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

* Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.

* La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts, such as reduced wind shear, are expected to continue into the hurricane season.

"In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA's National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

"The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we've seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it's important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.

"Now is the time, if you haven't already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes. Visit ready.gov to learn more. And if you're a small business owner, visit www.ready.gov/business to ensure that your business is prepared for a disaster," added Fugate.

Tropical Moisture Along the Equator Feels Songda's Pull

2011-05-27T03:38:00.003-05:00

Songda ramps up to super typhoon strength (www.thehindubusinessline.com)

The pull exerted by Songda on tropical moisture along the equator saw further convergence of monsoon clouds over the south Arabian Sea and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean past Maldives and even approaching Sri Lanka.

Meanwhile, global models continued to maintain a watch for the formation of a weather system in the southeast Arabian Sea close to the Kerala coast during the first 10 days of June.

Some of these models also hinted the possibility of concurrent activity near the Oman coast during this period but without significant collateral damage to the monsoonal system.

In fact, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services in its latest outlook valid for May 25 to 31 pointed to a band of enhanced convection and rainfall extending from south Arabian Sea towards equatorial Indian Ocean and Sri Lanka.

This is likely the handiwork of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, a periodical upper air low-pressure wave, with direct impact on ground level weather and mostly associated with monsoon onsets.

The eastward propagating wave is seen as crossing into the Bay of Bengal during June 1 to 7 and entering South China Sea and the Maritime Continent (Indonesia, Malaysia etc), which is just as it should.

Global Forecasting System model of the CPC has hinted about the possibility of convective activity peaking to a high in south and southeast Arabian Sea during June 2 to 8.

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reduced the countdown for onset of southwest monsoon over South Andaman Sea to two days.

Satellite pictures on Thursday afternoon showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds rising over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, northeast Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Madhya Maharashtra, south peninsular India, east and south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and south Arabian Sea.

Super Typhoon Loses Strength as it Approaches Japan

2011-05-27T03:25:00.005-05:00

Super typhoon churns through Pacific, threatens Okinawa (www.cnn.com)

Image courtesy of CNN

Super Typhoon Songda ripped across the western Pacific on Thursday, dropping heavy rain on the Philippines and threatening Okinawa and the Japanese main islands with rain and damaging winds into the weekend.

Songda was a Category 5 storm late Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 161 mph and gusts of 195 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The storm was producing wave heights of 38 feet in the Pacific, forecasters said.

The forecast track for Songda put it over Okinawa on Saturday night as a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 109 mph and gusts up 132 mph.

Okinawa is home to several U.S. military installations, including Kadena Air Base, home to nearly 18,000 Americans, and Camp Courtney, home of the III Marine Expeditionary Force and its 16,000 Marines, according to U.S. Forces Japan.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said Songda would lose strength but still be a strong storm as it approaches the country's main islands Sunday.

A dip in the jet stream was forecast to weaken Songda and push it toward the northeast and away from Taiwan and China, CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said.

Meanwhile, residents of Okinawa are gearing up for the approaching typhoon.

Japans Nansei may shut refinery due to typhoon

Japanese refiner Nansei Sekiyu KK, wholly owned by Brazil's state-run Petrobras , said it would decide on Saturday whether to shut its 100,000 barrels per day Nishihara refinery in Okinawa, southwestern Japan, due to a typhoon.
Typhoon Songda is headed directly to Okinawa with strong winds, a Nansei Sekiyu spokesman said.
Japanese maritime authorities have instructed Nansei to suspend berthing operations from 9 a.m. (0000 GMT) on Saturday, the spokesman added. (Reporting by Osamu Tsukimori; Editing by

As typhoon approaches Okinawa, military readies alcohol ban

CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — Airmen and Marines on Okinawa are banned from drinking alcohol this weekend if and when incoming Super Typhoon Songda nears the island, according to both services.
The ban goes into effect when the storm is within 12 hours of making landfall and the military announces a Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 warning level, which was expected to occur sometime Saturday afternoon.
--Snip--
In a prepared statement Thursday, the 18th Wing commander, Brig. Gen. Ken Wilsbach, said typhoons “can pose a significant challenge to military operations on Okinawa — a challenge that requires complete readiness of personnel to prepare for a storm’s arrival and to resume full operations after a storm passes.”
All active-duty servicemembers are covered by the alcohol ban, including those people on leave and those on TDY who are awaiting transportation.
Civilians are not covered but are “encouraged to refrain from alcohol consumption” during the storm.
The alcohol ban will remain in effect until Songda passes and the military declares the situation all clear, according to Wilsbach’s announcement.

Taiwan - Possible Sea Alert, Typhoon Unlikely to Hit Land

2011-05-25T20:53:00.005-05:00

Weather bureau may issue sea alert for Songda (www.taipeitimes.com)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said yesterday it might issue a sea alert for Typhoon Songda today, adding that the chance of the typhoon’s radius covering the nation remains low.
--Snip--
The bureau may issue a sea alert either this evening or early tomorrow morning if the radius of the storm enters the nation’s sea alert zone, she said.
Lin said the projected path of Songda showed the typhoon continuing along the edge of the Pacific high-pressure system, adding a land alert was unlikely because the storm’s radius has a very low chance of covering land.
Nonetheless, the bureau said the typhoon’s circumference would still bring showers to the northern and eastern parts of the nation, which are the windward side.
Both central and southern Taiwan, which are on the leeward, are expected to have relatively stable weather, the bureau said

Downpours Caused by Songda Flood Parts of Philippines

2011-05-25T20:43:00.024-05:00

Thousands evacuated after typhoon flooding (www.gulfnews.com)

Image Credit: AFP
Manila: Thousands of families are being evacuated and hundreds are stranded in southern Luzon while streets in Metro Manila are flooded as Typhoon Songda (known as Chedeng) brought heavy rains last night, officials said.

"We are evacuating 49,893 families from coastal areas for two days," Governor Jose Salceda of Albay, in southern Luzon's Bicol, said in a radio interview."

Volcanic debris

Families living at the foot of the Mayon Volcano in Albay will also be evacuated, said Salceda, adding that thousands could lose their homes when heavy rain sends volcanic debris down the slopes of the active volcano.

NASA sees Tropical Storm Songda singing of rain and gusty winds for the Philippines (www.escience news.com)

Warm sea surface temp and low wind shear enable Songda to strengthen as it curves North

"The series of three infra red images shows the strengthening of Tropical Storm Songda over the period may 19-22, 2011. Notice that the area with the strongest convection (purple) has expanded over that time. That area has the coldest, highest thunderstorm cloud tops neat -63F/-52C, and heaviest rainfall. Over those four days Songda took on a more rounded shape."

Image (above/below) Courtesy of: NASA/JPL, Ed Olsen

--Snip--

"Typhoon Songda was east of the Philippines when the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite had an early evening view on May 25, 2011 at 0903 UTC (05:03 EDT) and saw good organization within the storm and heavy rainfall.

Both TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments were used to provide the rainfall analysis. TRMM's TMI had the best coverage of rainfall with Songda and showed well organized bands of moderate to heavy rainfall converging into the typhoon. TRMM is managed by both NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, JAXA."

Infrared imagery from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite showed an eye about 12 nautical miles wide and strong convection surrounding the eye on all sides. Songda intensified over the over the last 12 hours because of very warm sea surface temperatures between 30 and 31 Celsius, and low wind shear.

Cat 4 Typhoon Chedeng Moves Away from Bikol (www.voxbikol.com)

"Naga City (May 26, 2011 5:00 A.M.) - Typhoon Chedeng might have just spared the country from its wrath as it now moves almost directly northward away from the Bikol region, even as it has been upgraded to a Category 4 typhoon with average center wind of 215 kph and gustiness up to 260 kph.

Chedeng's generally northward direction suggests that it may remain at sea until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday evening."

Image Courtesy of: typhoon2000.com

Songda's Silver Lining

2011-05-23T03:57:00.009-05:00

Central Weather Bureau Keeps Eye on Tropical Storm (The China Post)

While Philippines gears up for the possible onslaught caused by tropical storm Songda (Chedeng), some 2,000km away in Taiwan, there is both caution and hope that it could bring much needed rain to drought affected areas.

Image courtesy of www.philstar.com

Songda, meaning “red tributary” in Vietnamese, was preceded earlier this month by Tropical Storm Aere, which brought rain to the nation’s east coast and Hengchun Peninsula.

--Snip--

Bureau forecaster Lin Ding-yi (林定宜) said that while the storm was still very far from Taiwan, people should not underestimate its force.

“It [the storm] formed at sea,” he said. “The water vapor and heat it absorbs at sea will cause it to become stronger. The crucial time of observation would be on Wednesday or Thursday, when we can better determine if it will affect Taiwan.”

Nonetheless, Lin said that chances of rain were high nationwide tomorrow and Wednesday as another frontal system is forecast to arrive today.

'Severe' storm nears Philippine coastlines (www.philstar.com)

In an advisory issued this morning, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Atmospheric Services Administration (PAGASA) disclosed that typhoon Chedeng has entered Philippine seawaters past 2:00 a.m. today.

As of 4:00 a.m., “Chedeng” (international codename: Songda) was traced at 880 kilometers east of Guiuan town in Eastern Samar, packing up a maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour near the center.

PAGASA said the storm’s gustiness could reach as high as 120 kph while moving west-northwest at 13 kph, and is expected to make landfall between Tuesday or Wednesday.

Early today, the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) has advised residents in the country’s eastern seaboard to brace for the coming storm.

In a television interview, NDRRMC executive director Benito Ramos said residents in low-lying areas must need to evacuate and find shelter in safer grounds.

--Snip--

He also called on the concerned local government units to carry out preemptive evacuation measures to avoid any casualty from the brewing storm.

Tropical storm upgraded; strikes Yap

2011-05-22T06:48:00.004-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

Tropical Storm 04W has been upgraded and named to Tropical Storm Songda. Songda currently has sustained winds in excess of 50 MPH (80 km/hr) and brought strong gusts to the island of Yap in Micronesia. The strength of Songda continues to increase.

Storm ‘Songda’ intensifies further, closes in on PHL(GMA News)

The tropical storm threatening the Philippines intensified further as it continued to move toward Philippine territory Sunday afternoon.

As of 4 p.m., the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the storm was some 1,050 km east of northern Mindanao.

Six hours earlier, PAGASA said storm (international name: Songda) was 1,070 km east of northern Mindanao, with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph and gustiness of up to 90 kph

In its 5 p.m. bulletin, PAGASA said the storm now packs maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph.

PAGASA added "Songda" is forecast to move west-northwest at 11 kph. It will be called "Chedeng" when it enters Philippine territory.

At this time, the path of Songda is questionable. Earlier reports indicated that Songda would curve north, miss the Philippines and head towards Japan. That may still be the path this storm takes, however, the slow forward speed has meteorologists at PAGASA concerned. This storm is behaving similar to Philippine storm Bebeng which was a slow lumbering storm which had plenty of time to gain strength and become destructive.

As the Weather Underground graphic above slows, Songda will continue to intensify as it approaches northern Philippines. Forward speed is currently less than 10 km/hr allowing the storm time to gain strength potentially becoming an intense typhoon.

04W Becomes a Tropical Storm, Hits Yap(AccuWeather)

Graphic courtesy of AccuWeather

Tropical Storm 04W is still on track to pose a threat anywhere from the Philippines to Japan. Tropical Storm 04W is expected to reach typhoon strength by early next week.

It gained strength on Saturday as it passed near the Island of Yap in Micronesia. 04W brought wind gusts to tropical storm-force and heavy rain to the island.

The tropical storm will spin into the open waters of the Philippine Sea Sunday, posing little threat to land through most of next week. However, it will steadily strengthen.

Steering currents should take 04W in the direction of the northern Philippines mid to late next week. The big question regarding the track is if 04W will turn north toward Japan, or continue westerly toward the Philippines, Taiwan and eventually China.

Another storm coming to PH area by Sunday, may become typhoon—Pagasa (Philippine Daily Inquirer)

A tropical storm called Songda, which formed near Guam last week, continued its approach toward the eastern seaboard on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

The storm, according to Pagasa’s advisory, has been forecast to enter the country’s boundaries on Sunday night and would be locally code-named Chedeng. It would be the third tropical cyclone of the year and the second this month after tropical storm Bebeng.

As of Sunday morning, Songda was seen 1,070 kilometers east of Mindanao. The agency said the tropical storm was carrying 85 kilometer winds that were gusting at 100 kph. It was traveling west northwest at 11 kph.

Pagasa noted that it has been closely monitoring the cyclone as it has been growing stronger and could be destructive.

Typhoon Warnings via Facebook and Twitter

2011-05-19T06:03:00.020-05:00

U.S. military on Okinawa turns to social media as typhoon season nears (www.stripes.com)

CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — As the tropical storm season descends on Okinawa, U.S. military officials are telling base residents to keep an eye on Facebook and Twitter for the most up-to-date information.
Social networking proved to be an important tool two months ago in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in northeast Japan, and again this week when Tropical Storm Aere passed by the island, according to Kadena Air Base spokesman Ed Gulick.
“Facebook has become very important for us,” Gulick said, explaining that posted messages are instant, as opposed to the time it takes to update conventional communication channels. Everything from Kadena’s official website to commander’s TV access channels to the roadside marquees takes time. “And you have to be on base” to see the latter two, he said.

The Facebook pages of Kadena, AFN Okinawa and Marine Corps Bases Japan boast more than 14,000 followers combined.

--snip--

One bit of good news is there is little danger of a Katrina-style fishbowl on Okinawa, which is “built to withstand typhoons and built to shed water, not hold it,” Paslay said. He cited Typhoon Chaba last fall, which dumped 12 inches of rain on Okinawa “and it wasn’t an issue.”
Okinawa remains in seasonal TCCOR-4 from June 1 to November 30, since storms can form even right over the island without warning, officials said. Guam remains in TCCOR-4 year-round.
Tropical cyclones tend to lose most of their strength as they move north toward Japan and Korea, but can still pack a powerful punch and shouldn’t be taken lightly, officials said."

*More information about TCCOR (Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness) and what they mean to U.S. military bases and personnel can be found here: LINK

Central Pacific activity expected to be light

2011-05-18T21:13:00.002-05:00

NOAA released its projection today that the Central Pacific basin will have a lighter tropical season than normal this year. The tropical season in the Central Pacific begins on June 1 and is expected to have only 2 - 4 tropical cyclones this year.

NOAA expects below normal central Pacific hurricane season (Hawaii News Now)

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Wednesday that projected climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific Basin this year.

NOAA continues to urge Hawaii residents to be fully prepared for the onset of the hurricane season, which begins on June 1.

"Now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season in the central Pacific," said Ray Tanabe, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, part of NOAA's National Weather Service. "Last year we had a quiet season. It is definitely not the time to let our guard down."

--snip--

For 2011, the outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below normal season, a 25% chance of a near normal season, and a 5% chance of an above normal season.

NOAA expects 2-4 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific this season. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity and does not predict whether, where, when, or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii. Once a tropical cyclone forms in or migrates into the central Pacific or moves into the area, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center swings into action.

Even though the level of activity is expected to be below normal this year, preparation is still important. Hawaiian residents still should be aware of conditions and take the appropriate actions for approaching storms.

The year that Hurricane Andrew raked a path across southern Florida , there had only been two or three storms all year. Andrew was the first and never formed until late September that year. Likewise an active year does not guarantee landfall as was seen during last year's Atlantic Hurricane season.

Only one storm can have a major impact. The key is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Once you have the preparations taken care of then you can enjoy the tropical breezes and hot sunny days.

Introducing: Slipstream

2011-05-18T03:47:00.017-05:00

Born and raised in Hong Kong, I spent some time in Southern California before returning back to my birthplace to live and work.

When I was a kid growing up in the 80's and 90's, typhoons meant nothing more than time off school and sleepless nights. Memories include listening to the wind howl, soaking up window leaks with towels and buckets, and watching ceiling lights swing as I sat in an apartment 20 floors up.

Having taken up sailing and along with it a greater interest in meteorology, I was happy to get the opportunity to contribute to Gulf Coast Hurricane tracker. As such, I'll do my best to report events as they unfold in and around South East Asia.

Any comments or suggestions appreciated.

Thanks.

Hurricane season began Sunday in the East Pacific

2011-05-16T20:37:00.002-05:00

Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific began on May 15th. This year is projected to be much more active than last year with as many as 15 named storms. Fifteen storms would equal the average for this region of the Pacific basin and would be double the number from last year.

Hurricane Season Starts Today in Eastern Pacific (AccuWeather)

Today (Sunday) marks the official start of the 2011 hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, a season which is expected to exceed the amount of named tropical systems from last year by twofold.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists are predicting an average number of tropical systems to develop in the Eastern Pacific this year.

The basin averages 15 tropical storms each season. Out of those, nine become hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status.

Fifteen named storms would more than double the total from last year. Only seven named storms formed in the Eastern Pacific in 2010, with three reaching hurricane status.

AccuWeather meteorologist explain that last year's low number of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific was due primarily to the strengthening La Nina cnditions. This year we have a weakening La Nina which will bring lower prossures and warmer sea surface temperatures - conditions conducive for tropical storm formation.

Eastern Pacific Eyes Hurricane Season (Epoch Times)

2011 Eastern Pacific Names
Adrian
Beatriz
Calvin
Dora
Eugene
Fernanda
Greg
Hilary
Irwin
Jova
Kenneth
Lidia
Max
Norma
Otis
Pilar
Ramon
Selma
Todd
Veronica
Wiley
Xina
York
Zelda

Tropical Storm Aere: May 6-11, 2011

2011-05-11T08:18:00.004-05:00

New Post by Slipstream on location in Hong Kong:

Tropical storm Aere (or Bebeng as it is referred to in the Philippines), left nine people dead as it pounded eastern provinces of the Philippines and brought flooding to the capital [Manila], leaving thousands stranded in ports”. Bloomberg (SOURCE)

Three of the dead were a result of landslides, and much of the flooding was attributed to blocked drains, caused by improperly disposed garbage and poor drain maintenance.

A passenger bus navigates a flooded highway in suburban Makati city, east of Manila, in the Philippines on Sunday, May 8, 2011. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

New Zealand storms fizzle

2011-01-18T17:56:00.002-06:00

Apparently the merger of Tropical Cyclone Zelia with the remnants of TC Vania was enough to tear apart the stronger storm. TC Zelia had been weakening as it approached New Zealand and has all but dissipated. The primary concern now is heavy rain.

Storms fizzle but Hawke's Bay in for some damp weather (Hawke's Bay Today)

Hawke's Bay has missed the worst of predicted high winds and heavy rains being driven by two tropical lows moving on to the country but is still likely to get a fair soaking over the next week.

The main meteorological culprit is the weakening, and slightly unpredictable, tropical Cyclone Zelia.

It was moving across the country in the company of a second weakening cyclone, Vania.

"The path and depth of this second low is still somewhat uncertain," MetService forecaster Paul Mallinson said.

"But both these lows are forecast to bring very humid conditions."

The conditions were forecast to do their worst through until the end of today but mainly in northern and central areas. "This is a fast-moving and rather small system. While it will no longer be a tropical cyclone when it reaches us it may still pack a windy punch," MetService's Bob McDavitt said.

Tropical Cyclone Zelia weakening as it heads to NZ

2011-01-16T20:38:00.002-06:00

Two tropical weather systems are heading towards New Zealand. Tropical Cyclone Vania has broken apart after lashing Vanuatu. The remnants of this storm will bring heavy rain to the Southern Island of New Zealand. Tropical Cyclone Zelia will retain a Category 1 status as it approaches land bringing sustained winds of 65 km/hr with gusts as high as 120 km/hr as it approaches and potentially crosses the northern island.

Cyclone could bring 120km/h gusts to NZ (NZ Herald)

A tropical cyclone could bring wind gusts of up to 120km/hr to New Zealand tomorrow, new predictions show.

Latest updates from the Fiji Metereological Service show Tropical Cyclone Zelia retaining Category 1 cyclone status through Tuesday.

Weatherwatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says that means it could bring sustained winds of 65km/hr and gusts of 120km/hr as it nears the upper North Island.

But the fact the strongest winds are near the centre of the cyclone may save the country from the worst of the storm, he says.

"The severe gales might only extend one or two hundred kilometres from the centre, so if the storm remains more than that distance from land before being downgraded you can see how many regions will miss the damaging winds altogether".

The biggest threat from these storms appears to be heavy rain. TC Zelia is expected to diminish in strength as it approaches the island nation by Tuesday. Even as the wind speeds decrease, the rainfall will still be heavy.

Cyclone still tracking towards New Zealand (Stuff.co.nz)

Cyclone Vania, which petered out on the weekend, is now an ex-tropical low and is expected to move across the northern South Island tomorrow.

Zelia was south of New Caledonia at 11am and accelerating.

"Although the exact track is not certain it will probably pass west of Northland and Auckland tomorrow afternoon and evening, move over the southern or central North Island on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, and pass west of Chatham Islands late on Wednesday," the warning says.

"It will not be a tropical cyclone by the time it reaches New Zealand but these lows are forecast to bring very humid conditions and a period of heavy rain and north to northwest gales..."

The heaviest rain falls of 200 to 250mm are expected near the ranges of Westland, Buller and Nelson north of about Franz Josef Glacier.

The strongest winds will depend mainly on the track of the second low.

"At this stage they are likely to be from Taranaki and Taumarunui to Taihape and inland Wanganui with gusts around 130 km/h in exposed places on Tuesday night."

Severe gales could also hit exposed North Island areas.

Coastal gale warnings have been posted for the sea areas Abel, Brett, Chatham Islands, Colville, Conway, Cook, Grey, Kaipara, Plenty, Portland, Puysegur, Raglan and Stephens.

The gale warning for Manukau and Waitemata harbours and the Hauraki Gulf warns of northeast rising to 25 knots, gusting to 35 knots Tuesday morning and 35 knots gusting 45 knots tomorrow night.

South Pacific comes alive

2011-01-15T10:18:00.004-06:00

The south Pacific has been quite active lately with tropical systems. A tropical system that never quite gained enough strenth to be a tropical storm dumped enough water on Queensland, Australia last week to cause very severe flooding. Another tropical storm is veering away from the northwestern coast while two additional storms are converging towards New Zealand.

Trio of Tropical Systems Churning near Australia (AccuWeather)

Three tropical systems are currently churning near Australia. None of the named storms will slam flood-ravaged Australia, but two are threatening nearby islands.

Tropical Cyclone Vania already unleashed its fury on the Vanuatu Island group and neighboring New Caledonia. Both are located east of Australia.

Disruptive wind shear (strong winds high in the atmosphere) is now causing Vania to rapidly weaken south of New Caledonia.

The opposite is taking place with Tropical Cyclone Zelia, which is churning in the Coral Sea southeast of Papua, New Guinea.

Zelia should continue to strengthen into this weekend as it tracks southeastward through the Coral Sea, then the southern Pacific Ocean. By Sunday morning EST, the cyclone's intensity may be equal to that of a Category 2 hurricane.

Sunday is also when Zelia will come dangerously close to New Caledonia. At this time, the worst of the cyclone should remain offshore. Its outer bands of rain squalls and tropical storm-force winds could still graze the island.

It appears that New Zealand could be in for some heavy weather as a result of the strengthening Zelia as well as the moisture laden remnants of Vania. Zelia is strengthening as it moves towards the south southeast directly towards New Zealand. I sus pect that Vania will dissipate soon but the remnants of Vanie will become incorporated into Zelia's

Stormy weather in store for NZ (New Zealand Herald)

Former tropical cyclone Vania has been downgraded to a tropical depression, but is moving south "packed with moisture", said WeatherWatch analyst Philip Duncan.

"The low is going to pull tropical moisture down to New Zealand early next week," he said.

And MetService weather spokesman Bob McDavitt, said that if a tropical cyclone encounters an injection of cold air as it approaches New Zealand, then it may "feed" on the difference in density so that the cold air turns the tropical moisture to rain, and that rain-making process lowers the pressure, so that the system becomes "extra windy".

But Mr Duncan said forecasters were also closely watching the newly-developed tropical cyclone Zelia, classified as a Category 1 cyclone with winds averaging 65km/h and winds gusting up to 120km/h.

Zelia is currently heading directly for Wellington and the cook Strait.

Greetings

2011-01-15T08:47:00.002-06:00

It's been a long time since I have been able to add my commentary and analysis to this blog. At this point I assume that the only people looking at this blog are the few loyal readers who stick by me throughout. The number of hits I receive daily typically drops when the Atlantic is not active but usually we see quite a few hits from Pacific island countries, Australia and the far east during the November through April months. As it is I am now down to a steady 20 or so visitors each day and I thank you all very much.

As you know I moved from southeast Texas to North Georgia a few years ago for a new job offer. My position has been very challenging and rewarding and includes a fair amount of travel. In 2010 I had the opportunity to visit Asia 5 times - twice to Japan and all five times to areas in China. What an exciting and interesting experience. Unfortunately, the available time I have to work on this blog has diminished.

I think - I hope I am right - that quite a few people find my posts valuable. I assume this is the case since I see a huge (for me) uptick in readership when a storm approaches land. Most of my readers are referred by Google or some other search engine so I know that Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker is receiving exposure.

So I have a request to those who are interested and willing:

I would like to expand this blog to guest authors.

Anyone who is interested in writing posts regarding tropical storms, severe weather occurrances, balanced climate change articles or other weather and climate issues are welcome. All I ask is that anything that is posted be backed up with articles or data that supports the author's position or can be refuted with logical articles.

I would especially appreciate someone posting who is located on the Gulf Coast - so we get live information from our original home base and also someone in China or the Philippines to provide real information from those areas.

Anyone interested, please send me a note at veritas.blog@hotmail.com. Please understand that this is a volunteer position. Any income received from this blog could be shared but we are talking pennies or a few bucks at most.

Super Typhoon Megi slams Philippines

2010-10-18T04:35:00.002-05:00

Super typhoon Megi made landfall in northern Luzon Island today at Category 5 strength with between 140 and 165 MPH sustained winds. The storm is the strongest typhoon the Philippines have faced in 4 years.

Typhoon 2000 is reporting that the storm has weakened slightly to a Cat 4 typhoon which is still an extremely dangerous storm for anyone in its path:

MEGI (JUAN) has just passed over or very close to Ilagan City in Isabela...and is now on its way to Kalinga-Mountain Province Area...weakened into a Category 4 Typhoon. Typhoon Conditions continuing across Northern Isabela, Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, and Mountain Province.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon particularly Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao and Ilocos Sur should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

This typhoon has become deadly, killing at least one person and tearing roofs from houses and toppling power lines. The storm has wind gusts as high as 260 km/hr.

Deadly Typhoon Hits Northern Philippines(VOA News)

At least one person is dead in the far northern Philippines, where so-called "Super Typhoon" Megi crashed ashore with fierce winds and torrential rain around midday Monday.

Reports say roofs were torn off houses and electricity poles were toppled by the winds, which howled at sustained speeds of 225 kilometers per hour and gusted up to 260. One man was killed when he fell in a river.

Megi is described as the most powerful storm to hit the Philippines in four years.

Philippine authorities ordered thousands of people in Cagayan and Isabella provinces on Luzon island to move to safer areas. They say the heavy rain and high winds could damage buildings, power supplies and agriculture in the corn- and rice-producing region.

Track of Super Typhoon Megi

2010-10-17T16:42:00.002-05:00

Super-typhoon Megi is on course to strike northern Luzon beginning this morning and making full landfall before the afternoon Monday. This storm is very dangerous and is currently the strongest storm in 2010 globally.

Super Typhoon Megi bearing down on Philippines

2010-10-17T16:17:00.002-05:00

Super Typhoon Megi formed in the Western Pacific earlier in the week and has been on a course heading for Philippines northern Island of Luzon. It has since grown to such an intensity that it is the strongest storm in 2010 with wind speeds of 180 MPH and a central pressure of 895 mb.

Megi is Strongest Tropical Cyclone of 2010 (AccuWeather)

As of this morning, EDT, highest sustained winds about this extremely dangerous storm reached nearly 180 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). At the time, the storm's eye was located about 370 miles northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Not only was Megi a "super" typhoon, it also held highest winds well above the minimum threshold (156 mph) for a Category 5 hurricane.

Central pressure about the small, well-marked eye was a low 895 mb, or 26.43 inches of mercury. This compares to the world-wide average sea-level pressure of 1013.5 mb, or 29.93 inches.

Super Typhoon Megi was on track to barrel across the northern end of Luzon, the biggest and most populous island of the Philippines, with potentially catastrophic effect.

Megi is headed for the provinces of Cagayan and Isabela in norther Luzon. Luzon is the most heavily populated island of the country. These two provinces are where the majority of the nations rice is grown. This storm could destroy crops as well as infrastructure as it barrels ashore.

Super-typhoon Megi heads for northern Philippines(BBC News)

Thousands of people in the Philippines have fled from their homes ahead of a powerful storm, Super-Typhoon Megi, which is expected to reach the north of the country early on Monday.

Megi, which has winds of up to more than 280km/h (175mph), is then forecast to move towards the South China Sea.

It is the strongest storm the Philippines has faced this year.

In 2006, a storm with winds of 155km/h triggered mudslides, burying villages and killing about 1,000 people.

The northern provinces of Cagayan and Isabela are on the highest storm alert.

Officials are warning of heavy rain and high winds that could damage buildings, power supplies and agriculture.

Emergency services have been stocking up on food and medicines, says the BBC's Kate McGeown in the capital, Manila.

Government forecasters say waves off the east coast could be greater than 14m (46ft). They have warned against travel to the region.

Thousands of soldiers and officers are on standby.

Trucks, rescue boats and food packs have been pre-positioned near vulnerable areas, said Benito Ramos, a senior disaster-response official.

"This is like preparing for war," he told the Associated Press. "We know the past lessons and we're aiming for zero casualties."

Schools in the north will be closed on Monday.

Farmers were being urged to harvest as many of their crops as possible before the typhoon hit, our correspondent says.

The area in the storm's path is one of the country's main rice-growing regions.

The government has called for evacuations ahead of the storm. Currently evacuations are voluntary but the government may forcibly remove people from their homes if necessary to prevent casualties. The Typhoon is expected to make landfall Monday morning local time.

Super typhoon roars towards Philippines

Megi could uproot trees, blow away houses made of light material, trigger landslides and cause storm surges in coastal areas, Philippine authorities said as they began evacuating people from vulnerable areas.

It is expected to hit the northern province of Cagayan on Monday, and as of Sunday afternoon was already 450 kilometres east of the area, the state weather bureau said.

The storm was packing maximum winds of 195km/h near the centre and gusts of up to 230km/h, making it a super typhoon, forecasters said.

"Some are still gauging the situation but those who are living in low areas have voluntarily gone to higher ground," said Benito Ramos, head of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

He said thousands of people have already temporarily relocated from communities along the Cagayan river system, which had overflowed during previous typhoons.

President Benigno Aquino ordered all government agencies to be on high alert to prevent casualties, while the coastguard was instructed to ban all fishing vessels from setting off to sea in the north.

Hurricane Paula rapidly intensifies

2010-10-12T20:02:00.003-05:00

Hurricane Paula intensified suddenly with windspeeds jumping up to 100 MPH from 75 MPH earlier today. Paula is a very compact storm in very warm waters. This is creating the situation similar to an ice skater who pulls in her arms and speeds up in a fast spin.

The waters in this area of the Caribbean are very warm but to combination of Paula's interaction with land and the presence of an approaching front make further strengthening unlikely yet the tightness of Paula is overcoming these negative factors.

Hurricane Paula winding up in the Caribbean(Washington Post)

History has shown that small tropical cyclones under the right conditions are quite capable of intensifying rapidly. Paula, in fact, underwent a cycle of rapid intensification unprecedented in the record books, as Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters explained earlier today:

Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. The first advisory for Paula was issued at 5pm EDT yesterday, and Paula strengthened into a hurricane just twelve hours later, at 5am EDT this morning. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly.
We will be watching Paula closely for any additional intensification.

Paula is expected to move slowly and somewhat erratically toward the Yucatan Channel over the next couple of days, as the steering currents remain weak. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps the storm south of the Gulf of Mexico at or below Category 2 intensity.

Though Paula is situated over warm ocean waters capable of supporting a monster Category 5 storm, the atmosphere over this part of the world is, in general, not so hospitable. A band of strong westerly winds at high altitudes has settled across much of Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic. Partly associated with the annual southward shift of the jet stream during autumn, these winds exceed 60 mph in places.

Hurricane Paula is on course to brush against the Yucatan peniunsula and even cross near or over Cozumel and the hook to the northeast and strike the western tip of Cuba. From there, the track of Paula depends on whether the storm gets caught in the jet stream or not. If it does, then it will be pulled towards southern Florida, otherwise Paula will flounder around in the Caribbean for a bit longer.

Hurricane Paula is heading toward the western tip of Cuba(NOLA)

Hurricane Paula is headed toward the Yucatan Channel and extreme western Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Hurricane Paula is centered about 85 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 160 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba, at latitude 19.6 north and longitude 86.0 west. It has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Punta Gruesa north to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel, and for the province of Pinar Del Rio, Cuba.

Hurricane Paula is a small Category 2 storm, with hurricane-force winds extending out up to 15 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extending out up to 60 miles. The center of the storm is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Hurricane Paula threatens Yucatan

2010-10-12T10:41:00.002-05:00

Graphic courtesy of spaghetti models.com

Hurricane Paula grew rather rapidly from a tropical storm yesterday to a low level hurricane with 75 MPH sustained winds and gusts up to 90 MPH. Paula proximity to land indicates that this storm will likely remain a Category 1 storm, but there is at least one model projecting the possibility that she may grow stronger and may even reach Category 2 status before touching the eastern coast of the peninsula sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Paula Circling Between Mexico and Cuba(National Underwriter Property And Casualty Insurance News)

Hurricane Paula is now spinning between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Cuba, and is expected to stay there into the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The 16th named storm and the ninth hurricane of the 2010 hurricane season is currently a weak Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.

The NHC is reporting warm ocean temperatures that are conducive to hurricane intensification, but the atmospheric environment is not favorable for storm strengthening. The storm could gain strength within the next couple of days, followed by a steady weakening, the NHC said.

Within 12 hours of becoming a tropical storm, Paula strengthened to hurricane status, said modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS).

--snip--

Right now Paula is about 190 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The storm is expected to turn north-northeast today, followed by a turn to the north on Oct. 13 to approach the Yucatan Peninsula, possibly as a stronger storm

The primary concern is that Paula will bring 3 - 6 inches of heavy rain to an area that was drenched by Hurricane Karl just last month. The heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and landslides.

The Mexican coast from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche is under a hurricane warning. A hurricane warning is in place for all of Cozumel as well. The rest of the coastline south to Belize and northward to San Filipe is under a tropical storm warning.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm PAULA

2010-10-11T19:34:00.001-05:00

Tropical Storm Paula sprang to life today along the Caribbean coast of Central America. Development had been slow first due to wind shear and then from the interaction with land, but the storm was able to gain enough strength to become a strong tropical storm with 65 MPH sustained winds. As the alert from Tropical Storm Risk suggests, there is a reasonable probability that Paula will strengthen to a hurricane before striking land.

Tropical Storm Paula Forms in Caribbean (AccuWeather)

The 16th named tropical system of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has formed and has strengthened. Tropical Storm Paula is churning in the Caribbean and is slowly drifting northwestward.

As of 8 p.m. EDT Monday, Paula was located about 105 miles east of Isla de Guanaja, Honduras, moving to the northwest at 9 mph with sustained winds at 65 mph. Central pressure fell to 998 mb.

The Mexican government has issued a hurricane warning for the coast from Punta Gruesa northward to Cancún, including Cozumel. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Mexican coast from Chetumal northward to south of Punta Gruesa.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the coast of Honduras from Limón eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border, including the Bay Islands.

Paula is expected to reach the Yucatan by mid-week and either dissipate or curve towards Cuba and Florida. A high pressure system is located over Haiti and the Dominican Republic which is expected to steer Paula in a loop to the northeast, raking Central American coast and then heading towards Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2010 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PAULA (AL18) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Honduras
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Cuba
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Puerto Lempira (15.3 N, 83.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% currently
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Belize
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roatan (16.3 N, 86.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
    Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Subtropical Depression #17 forms in Caribbean

2010-10-06T07:24:00.002-05:00

Subtropical Depression #17 has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to soon become Tropical Storm Otto. This system has been classified as "subtropical" because it has some non-tropical characteristics. These include interaction wuith a standard upper level low pressure system and a wide circulation around the system's center.

10/6: Cool mornings, warm afternoons ahead(MyFOXLubbock.com)

Here's part of the morning Hurricane Center discussion stating right now this is more like a tropical system but likely to become more extratropical (think regular low pressure system)

WHILE THE LOW IS NOT FAR FROM BEING MORE TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...ITS CURRENT LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AT LEAST 120 N MI...AND ITS ENTANGLEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW LEAD ME TO START THE SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT LOW...WHICH WOULD PLACE IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHTER WIND SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BECAUSE IT COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO SHED ALL OF ITS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... WHICH WILL PROBABLY HALT ANY STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IVEN THE INITIAL SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE...AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM.

Even if this sytem does strengthen to a tropical storm as expected, there is no threat to land as the storm is moving away from land into the open Atlantic.

Sub Tropical Depression 17 forms in the western Atlantic Ocean(NOLA)

As of 4 a.m. the center of subtropical depression 17 was located about 270 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 710 miles south of Bermuda west. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected by late tonight. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are forecast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the system could become a tropical or subtropical storm later today.

TD # 16 forms in Caribbean; set to soak US East Coast

2010-09-28T21:52:00.003-05:00

Tropical Depression 16 formed in the warm waters of the Caribbean yesterday and is now crossing much of Cuba. The storm seems to be fairly disorganized with much of the heavy rain far to the east of the center of the storm. Once this storm crosses the island, then increased organization is likely resulting in Tropical Storm Nicole.

Graphic courtesy of Spaghetti Models.com

The computer models show that this storm is set to soak the entire east coast over the next several days. Tomorrow the storm is projected to become a tropical storm and cross the Florida peninsula. From there the system will hug the coastline scraping along the entire eastern seaboard from South Carolina to the Canadian maritime provinces. From there the system or its remnants are projected to continue across the Atlantic over to the United Kingdom.

To me the storm track models look similar to an international flight plan from Atlanta to London. The models are very consistent with each other showign tight convergence along the coast. TD #16 is a fast moving storm and is projected to reach the Carolinas by Friday and New England by the end of the week.

Rainbands from TD#16 are already dropping moisture on Floriday. The rain will continue and become heavier as the storm approaches and crosses the southern end of the state.

Matthew stalls; dumps heavy rain on Central America

2010-09-26T06:37:00.002-05:00

Tropical Depression Matthew has become essentially stationary as it unloads it land over Central America. Matthew slammed ashore a few days ago in northern Nicaragua as a tropical storm. As the storm moves northwestward into Honduras, it degraded to a depression and slowed significantly.

Now Matthew is unloading all of the moisture it contains over an area that is already waterlogged due to a summer of heavy rainfall.

Weakened Matthew drenches parts of Central America(Lexington Herald Leader)

GUATEMALA CITY -- Matthew was drenching parts of Central America Sunday, a day after it weakened to a tropical depression.

The storm's forward movement was slowing as its top winds fell, meaning it could become nearly stationary somewhere over Mexico by late Sunday. Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the slow pace was going to allow the storm to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches over parts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. The rain threatened to cause flash floods and mudslides.

Forecasters say Matthew has maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph (45 kph), and is expected to continue losing strength. The storm's center was located about 85 miles (135 kph) southeast of Villahermosa, Mexico, early Sunday.

--snip--

In recent months, Guatemala has been hit by heavy rains that have resulted in about 274 deaths and about $1.1 billion in damage, according to government estimates.

Matthew was originally forecast to pass across Central America and re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen to hurricane status. Since the storm made landfall much futher south than ariginally forecast, the storm has been slowed significantly due to the moutainous terrain. It appears very unlikely that Matthew will have enough strength or forward motion to be able to survive as a storm and reach any water to allow restrengthening.

Tropical Storm Matthew forms; heads ashore

2010-09-24T16:29:00.002-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Spaghettimodels.com

Tropical Storm Matthew developed yesterday afternoon in the Caribbean near the coast of Central America. The system had shown signs of orhanizing for several days but was depressed by high wind shear in the area. Once the wind shear died down, the system quickly developed, fueled by the warm Caribbean waters.

Initial storm track predictions showed Matthew strengthening over water and curving along the coast of Belize. Instead, Matthew made landfall in northeast Nicaragua. The storm is expected to cross Central America weakening as it moves across land.

Tropical Storm Matthew threatens Central America(Associated Press)

MANAGUA, Nicaragua — Nicaragua began evacuating thousands of people from the path of Tropical Storm Matthew as the storm drenched the Caribbean coast and threatened much of a Central American region prone to disastrous flooding.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Matthew's center was close to landfall Friday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph).

The Hurricane Center said it could bring 6 to 10 inches (15 to 25 centimeters) of rain to Nicaragua and Honduras, with the possibility of flash floods and mud slides. Some parts of Nicaragua already were coping with flooding due to earlier rains.

A tropical storm watch also was in effect for the coast of Belize.

Central America has had a heavy rainy season this year and the heavy rain from Matthew will increase the potential for flooding and landslides.
New storm threatens rain-soaked C. America(AFP)

Central America is facing one of the most intense rainy seasons in the last 60 years, with flooding and landslides that have killed more than 300 people and caused serious damage in recent months.

Matthew is forecast to make landfall near the Nicaragua-Honduras border late Friday or early Saturday, and authorities are bracing for more flooding as soil across much of the region is already saturated with water from the season's earlier storms.

--snip--

Matthew is expected to dump between six and 10 inches of rain over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, with up to 15 inches possible in isolated areas.

"These rainfall totals may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides," the NHC said.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane IGOR to strike Canada

2010-09-21T09:50:00.003-05:00

Tropical Storm Risk is reporting a 100% likihood that Hurricane Igor will strike the Canadian maritime provinces as a Category 1 hurricane. Igor appears on track to scrape the eastern edge of Newfoundland and the eye may even pass over or very close to the city of St. John's. The forecast calls for Igor to remain at hurricane strength as it progresses north past Newfoundland into Baffin Bay potentially brushing against the southwestern coast of Greenland or making landfall in the far northern areas of Nunavut Province.

Graphic courtest of Weather Underground

It is very unusual for a storm to remain this strong so far north. The computer models show a fair amount of scatter in the potential paths of the storm but it appears that Igor will likely enter Baffin Bay and make landfall in northern Canada as a tropical storm. There is a slight chance that Igor will head into the Northern Atlantic but this appears to be slim.

Graphic courtesy of Spaghetti Models.com

Hurricane Igor heads north, all the way to Greenland?(Christian Science Monitor)

Between next Thursday morning and Friday morning, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami say they expect Igor to make landfall on the southern tip of Greenland, perhaps with tropical-storm-force winds, then to move into the interior as a "post-tropical" depression.

The label "post-tropical" refers to a shift in a storm's energy source. In Igor's case, its energy source is expected to shift by Tuesday morning.

As a tropical cyclone, Igor draws its energy from heat. That heat is released as water condenses from vapor to cloud droplets as the vapor rises higher into the atmosphere and cools, forming powerful thunderheads. As the storm moves north, it encounters cooler water and draws its energy from the difference in temperature between the storm itself and a cooler mass of air sweeping into the North Atlantic from middle and high latitudes. At that point, Igor earns the post-tropical tag.

These storms can still be dangerous, since they continue to pack gale-force winds. These winds typically blow at altitudes of from several hundred feet to a little over 1,000 feet. They can trigger significant wind damage if the storm encounters an environment that encourages mixing between air layers near the ground and the layers carrying the gale-force winds.

By the time Igor draws even with southern Newfoundland overnight Tuesday, it is expected to pack hurricane-force winds, although it will have become post-tropical. Igor's track is expected to come close enough to the Canadian province's southeastern tip, prompting the government to issue tropical-storm warnings for that area.

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 21 Sep, 2010 9:00 GMT

Hurricane IGOR (AL11) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Canada
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Greenland
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
St. Pierre and Miquelon
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Godthab (64.3 N, 51.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Typhoon Fanapi pounds Taiwan - heads to China

2010-09-19T17:00:00.002-05:00

Typhoon Fanapi crossed Taiwan today bringing heavy rain, flooding and wind damage to the island. The storm killed three people when it slammed into the island and over 50,000 people are currently without power.

Video: Typhoon Fanapi hits Taiwan(ITN News)

Typhoon Fanapi rolls across Taiwan(UPI)

Fanapi killed at least three people when it hit Taiwan Sunday and left more than 50,000 people without power. The Category 3 storm whipped up winds of 123 mph and dropped nearly 8 inches of rain in Yilan and Hualien counties.

Police said a woman was killed when she fell into a river while doing last-minute harvesting ahead of the storm. Two students drowned in a flooded canal when a girl slipped and fell and two friends jumped in after her, CNN said.

The heavy rain prompted concerns of mudslides in the mountainous regions of the countryside, especially in isolated and remote areas.

Taiwan typhoon triggers fears of landslides(New Zealand Herald)

TAIPEI - Rescue crews rushed to evacuate people from mountainous regions vulnerable to landslides as a powerful typhoon hit Taiwan.

Typhoon Fanapi, the first major storm to strike the island this year, made landfall in the eastern city of Hualien on Saturday, packing winds of 162km/h and churning its way across the island at a speed of 20km/h, the Central Weather Bureau said.

Interior Minister Chiang Yoo Hoo ordered authorities to remove villagers from regions prone to landslides, mindful that torrential rains were likely to cause massive subsidence on mountainsides, particularly in isolated areas of Taiwan's south.

Fanapi slammed into central Taiwan at the equivalent of a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Once it struck land it turned to the south and then crossed the southern portion of the island before emerging into the Taiwan Strait at a Category 1 strength. The storm is expected to remain at a Category 1 strength as it crosses the water and makes landfall in Fujian Province.

China Prepares for Typhoon Fanapi(VOA News)

China has stepped up emergency measures as typhoon Fanapi approaches its southeastern coast.

Weather officials have raised the typhoon to the second highest alert level. The government has said Fanapi could be the strongest storm to hit China this year.

Authorities in southeastern Fujian province ordered fishermen to stay away from the coast. More than 186,000 people have been evacuated, and many businesses shut down Sunday.

Three previous typhoons have struck this same region this year.

Hurricane Igor Batters Bermuda

2010-09-19T16:39:00.002-05:00

After becoming the most ferocious hurricane in the Atlantic this year, Hurricane Igor diminished to a CAtegory 1 hurricane just prior to reaching landfall in Bermuda. Even with the weakened wind speed, Igor is a very large storm with hurricane force winds extending wider than the size of the island.

Video: Raw Video: Igor Surge Blasts Bermuda(Associated Press)

Hurricane Igor pounds Bermuda (Right Juris)

Bermuda braces for Hurricane Igor. Now downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, Igor is closing towards Bermuda with sustained winds of 85 MPH. Hurricane Igor is currently about 100 miles SSW of Bermuda moving north at 16 MPH. The large storm is already pounding the island with heavy rain, wind and waves. The National Hurricane Center in Miami anticipates Bermuda being affected by Igor well into Monday.

Hurricane Igor may have weakened but it is still a monster due to it’s sheer size. Hurricane force winds of 75 MPH or more extend nearly 90 miles out from it’s center. Tropical storm conditions extend out over 300 miles.

Igor is expected to pass directly over Bermuda with the eye of the hurricane passing over the island Sunday evening.

Hurricane Igor lashes Bermuda(CBC News)

Hurricane Igor is lashing Bermuda with heavy rain and high winds, forcing islanders to board up windows, fill sandbags and stock up on emergency supplies.

The eye of Igor was expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Sunday evening, the U.S. Hurricane Center said. At 2 p.m. AT on Sunday, Igor was 185 kilometres south-southwest of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h.

The hurricane, which was downgraded to a Category 1 storm overnight, could produce as much as 23 centimetres of rainfall.

A dangerous storm surge was expected to produce significant coastal flooding on the island. The surge will likely be accompanied by large and destructive waves, particularly along the southern coast, the forecaster said.

Hurricane Karl swells to monster;slams Mexico

2010-09-17T17:54:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Karl quickly grew from a Cat 1 hurricane to a Cat 3 hurricane within 24 hours yesterday and last night. Karl is the third major hurricane in the Atlantic basin and the third to grow so quickly. Igor and Julia also grew from a Category 1 to a Category 4 very quickly with both storms existing as Category 4 storms simultaneously in the Central Atlantic.

Karl came ashore with 125 MPH winds this morning and is slowly decreasing in strength.

Powerful hurricane Karl hits Mexican Gulf coast(CTV)

VERACRUZ, Mexico — Hurricane Karl smashed into Mexico's Gulf Coast on Friday, creating havoc in the major port city of Veracruz and forcing the country to shut down its only nuclear power plant and its central Gulf Coast oil platforms.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Karl's eye hit about 10 miles (15 kilometres) northwest of Veracruz at about 11:30 a.m. (12:30 EDT; 1630 GMT) with sustained winds of 115 mph (185 kph).

Veracruz civil protection chief Isidro Cano Luna said the storm already had caused widespread damage, knocking down trees, billboards and power poles. He said there had not been a storm like it since Hurricane Janet hit in September 1955.

While the storm is expected to weaken as it moves inland, it was still likely to be at hurricane force when it reaches the state capital of Jalapa, 60 miles (100 kilometres) from the coast, said that city's Mayor David Velasco Chedraui.

It was projected to slog across central Mexico, drenching Mexico City, after dumping heavy rain into the mountainous, flood-prone region of Veracruz where a storm killed more than 300 people in 1999, most in landslides.

Video: Karl Now a Category 3, Bermuda in Igor's Path (Associated Press)

Karl enters the Gulf; becomes a hurricane

2010-09-16T15:24:00.003-05:00

After crossing the Yucatan peninsula as a tropicals storm, Hurricane Karl grew to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained wind speed of 75 MPH. Karl is expected to continue intensifying and will likely be a Categoy 2 storm before making landfall on the Central Mexican coast.

Hurricane Karl takes aim at Mexican Gulf coast(Associated Press)

VERACRUZ, Mexico — Karl reached hurricane force in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday after dumping heavy rain on the Yucatan Peninsula. It was expected to strengthen more before hitting Mexico's coast near a port and an oil hub late during the night or early Friday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said there was a possibility that Karl could become a major hurricane with winds of 110 mph (175 kph) or higher before making landfall.

The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning for a 150-mile (250-kilometer) stretch of coast in Veracruz state. On its predicted path, Karl could make landfall near the coastal city of Tuxpan and the oil hub of Poza Rica.

Authorities in Veracruz — whose southern half has been battered by severe flooding over the past few weeks — prepared for a hit on its northern coast, getting ready sleeping mats, bottled water and other supplies for anyone needing to take refuge in shelters.

Workers in the port city of Veracruz cut dangerous tree limbs and inspected billboards to make sure they would not become flying debris if the hurricane hit.

By early Thursday, Karl was about 310 miles (500 kilometers) east of Tuxpan, with winds of 75 mph (120 kph). It was moving westward rapidly at about 12 mph (19 kph).

Karl is expected to strengthen and may even become a major hurricane. It is expected to produce very heavy surf as it slams into the Mexican coast with a storm surge as high as 9 feet above normal levels.

Hurricane Karl churns in the Bay of Campeche(NOLA)

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Karl is a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is likely and Karl could approach major hurricane strength before the center reaches the Mexican coast.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70
miles. Minimum central pressure just reported by the hurricane hunter is 983 mb.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Within the hurricane warning area tropical storm conditions are expected by Friday with hurricane conditions expected by late Friday and Friday night.

Karl is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of five to 10 inches across the central and southern Mexican Gulf Coast region with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible in the interior mountains. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Hurricane Julia explodes to Cat 4

2010-09-15T19:43:00.003-05:00

Yesterday, in the span of only an hour or two, Julia jumped from a Category 1 hurricane with winds of around 85 MPH to a Category 4 hurricane with winds over 130 MPH. Julia remained at Cat 4 strength for much of today and is just now dropping in strength to a Cat 3. Currently, Julia has windspeeds of 125 MPH (and gusts of 155 MPH) and dropping. Hurricane Igor is remaining steady with windspeeds of 135 MPH (with gusts as high as 160 MPH).

Having two major hurricanes side by side in the Atlantic in very rare, especially two storms of such massive intensity. The last time this occurred was in 1926.

Hurricane Igor, Julia Made History Wednesday(AccuWeather)

At 5 a.m. Wednesday, Hurricane Julia was upgraded to a Category 4 storm, while her brother, Hurricane Igor, maintained his Category 4 status.

In doing so, Julia also became the strongest hurricane on record so far east.

Although the storm was downgraded to a Category 3 at 5 p.m., this 12-hour period marks only the second time in recorded history that two Category 4 hurricanes were active at the same time in the Atlantic.

The other time this occurred was in September 1926. As modern storm naming was not in practice back then, Hurricane Four began on Sept. 2, and this slow-moving storm lasted about 22 days total. This storm remained at sea and did not make landfall in the United States.

During this time, Hurricane Six developed in the Atlantic and strengthened into a Category 4 storm. The storm remained at Category 4 as it made landfall on Sept. 18, hitting Miami directly.

Video: Igor, Julia and Karl All Making Waves(The Associated Press)

Tropical Storm Karl Strikes Yucatan

2010-09-15T08:40:00.003-05:00

Tropical Storm Karl made landfall this morning on the Yucatan peninsula near the Mexico/Belize border. Karl had winds as high as 65 MPH and hot as a strong tropical storm. It is expected to weaken as it crosses the Yucatan today. Once re-emerging in the Bay of Campeche, Karl will strengthen once again.

UPDATE 1-Tropical Storm Karl makes landfall in Mexico(Reuters Africa)

MEXICO CITY, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Karl made landfall near Chetumal, Mexico, on Wednesday and was expected to steer west across the Yucatan peninsula to re-emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico close to oil fields in the Campeche sound.

Karl, the 11th named storm of the season, had winds of 65 miles per hour/(100 kph) with higher gusts as of 7:45 a.m./(1245 GMT). Its center was expected to cross the Yucatan on Wednesday and re-enter the Gulf of Mexico after nightfall.

"Restrengthening is forecast on Thursday after Karl moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where Karl is likely to become a hurricane," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Upon reaching water again, Karl was likely to miss U.S. oil and natural gas rigs in the northern part of the Gulf although forecasters said it may hit Mexican oil rigs.

Tropical Storm Karl forms in the Caribbean

2010-09-14T18:56:00.003-05:00

An area of disturbed tropical weather in the Caribbean finally organized enough today to become Tropical Storm Karl. Karl currently has 45 MPH winds and is expected to gain strength before slamming into the Yucatan Peninsula as a strong tropical storm. Water temepratures are quite warm in the western Caribbean and wind shear is low. Higher wind shear prevented Karl from forming as it crossed the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Karl forms in Caribbean(Associated Press)

MIAMI — Tropical Storm Karl has formed in the northwestern Caribbean, heading on a path expected to take it over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Forecasters say the storm has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph (65 kph) and is located about 270 miles (435 kph) east of Chetumal, Mexico. It's moving west-northwest at 15 mph (24 kph).

Mexico's government has issued a tropical storm warning for the peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche. Parts of Belize are under a tropical storm watch.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says the storm is expected to strengthen, and its center could be over the Yucatan on Wednesday.

There are now three tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin. Two hurricanes, Igor and Julia and TS Karl in the Caribbean. Igor was the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic this year and is strengthening again. Of the three, Karl is an immediate threat to land as it approaches Mexico. Igor will be a threat to Bermuda as a strong Cat 2 or potentially a Cat 3 storm by the weekend.

Three Tropical Cyclones Tracked in Atlantic by National Hurricane Center(Bloomberg)

For the third time in less than a month, the National Hurricane Center is tracking three storms in the Atlantic.

Hurricanes Igor and Julia are spinning their way through the central Atlantic, while newly formed Tropical Storm Karl heads for Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and from there into the Bay of Campeche, where state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos has wells.

“I expect Karl to become a low-end hurricane as it tracks across southern and central portions of the Bay of Campeche,” said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist for Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “The Mexican rigs and platforms will probably be shut in.”

Video: Two Hurricanes Now Churning Through Atlantic (Associated Press)

Intense Hurricane Igor begins turn northward

2010-09-14T09:39:00.003-05:00

Hurricane Igor began a turn to the north last night after travelling westward across the Atlantic for several days. Igor's northwesterly direction now means that the Leeward Islands will be spared a direct hit from this intense storm. Igor's windspeed has dropped somewhat but it is still a dangerous Category 4 storm.

Igor's path now takes it directly towards Bermuda. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane until the middle of the weekend when it will drop to a strong Category 2 storm as it passes over the island. A slight shift in Igor's path could make the difference between a bad weather event or an extreme pounding.

`Dangerous' Igor Heads Toward Bermuda as Hurricane Julia Forms to the East(Bloomberg)

Hurricane Igor, the season’s most powerful storm, headed toward Bermuda on a track that may threaten the island group this weekend, while Julia became the fifth hurricane of the season today over the eastern Atlantic.

Igor was still a “dangerous” Category 4 storm, the second strongest on the 5-step Saffir-Simpson scale, after its winds dropped to 135 miles (215 kilometers) an hour from 150 mph yesterday, the National Hurricane Center said on its website at 4:45 a.m. Miami time. The storm was 750 miles east of the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands heading west-northwest at 8 mph.

Both Igor and Julia, with 75 mph winds behind it, are forecast to head into the north Atlantic while a collection of thunderstorms in the Caribbean is predicted to move west into Mexico and avoid the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for 31 percent of the U.S. oil output, computer models show.

“Swells generated by Igor will begin affecting the Leeward Islands today and will reach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday,” the center said. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

The center’s prediction map shows Igor weakening while heading almost directly for Bermuda early on Sept. 19. Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based venture that grew out of a U.K. government-supported tsunami initiative, gives the islands a 10 percent chance of being struck by a hurricane bearing winds of at least 74 mph within five days.

Hurricane Julia forms in the Atlantic

2010-09-14T09:34:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Julia formed off the coast of Africa a couple of days ago. After passing the Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm, Julia grew to a Category 1 hurricane and tunrd towards the northwest.

Hurricane Julia is expected to remain a Category 1 storm until the weekend when it becomes a tropical storm once again in cooler waters. The storm is currently not expected to affect land at all, but will likely die out in the central Atlantic as it moves north.

Igor explodes to Category 4 hurricane

2010-09-12T15:13:00.003-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

Hurricane Igor grew from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane yesterday. The storm was moving out of a region with high wind shear into an area where the wind shear is very low or non existant and the sea surface temperatures are very warm. As a result this morning Igor grew to a Category 2 and by early afternoon exploded into a Category 4 monster.

The NHC is reporting that Igor has 135 MPH sustained winds with gusts as high as 160 MPH. Igor is moving ratehr quickly through the Atlantic at 14 MPH.

Igor Rapidly Intensifies into Category 4 Hurricane(AccuWeather)

Igor became the fourth hurricane of the season Saturday evening as it headed farther west over the open waters of the Atlantic. The storm has since intensified rapidly, reaching powerful Category 4 status Sunday afternoon.

While minor fluctuations in intensity can occur, the storm is expected to generally remain a major hurricane through much of the upcoming week.

Most computer models show Igor curving slightly northward over the western Atlantic in the next few days, steering clear of the Leeward Islands but posing a major threat to Bermuda next weekend.

While the storm may very well follow this type of track, there is still a small chance that it heads farther west, drawing nearer to the Leeward Islands and making its northward curve closer to the East Coast of the United States.

The forecast calls for Igor to generally remain a major hurricane well into the weekend. It is expected to curve towards Bermuda but the track can still shift more towards the west. Coastal regions may encounter rough surf and rip tides and the storm may even approach the eastern US. The threat to the eastern US will be better defined by mid week.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon MERANTI slamming into Chna

2010-09-09T20:33:00.001-05:00

Typhoon Meranti has been upgraded to a Category 1 typhoon today and is currently making landfall along the China coast. Meranti brought heavy rain to Taiwan yesteray inundating villages in southeastern Taiwan with 10 - 20 inches of rain.

Meranti Upgraded to a Typhoon, Aims for China(AccuWeather)

The latest Pacific tropical cyclone, Meranti, has poured torrential rain over southern Taiwan as it twirls toward southeastern China as a typhoon.

As of Thursday morning, EDT, rainfall of 10 to 20 inches had already inundated southeastern Taiwan, with Taitung having accumulated at least 13.0 inches.

Meanwhile, Meranti, now upgraded to a typhoon, was centered about 200 miles southwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Having highest sustained winds of 75 mph, Meranti was spinning northward at 10 to 12 mph.

Meranti was on target for a landfall upon southeastern China near Quanzhou, in Fujian, by early Friday morning, EDT.

Multiple sources Thursday indicated that five villages in Taiwan were evacuated in reaction to the excessive rainfall and runoff.

On Thursday Taiwan issued a land and sea warning as the northeast quantrant of the typhoon brushed against the southwest corner of the island.

Taiwan issues storm warning (Sin Chew Jit Poh)

TAIPEI, Thursday 9 September 2010 (AFP) - Taiwan Thursday issued a warning against tropical storm Meranti, urging residents to take precautions as the weather system could bring severe downpours as well as flooding and landslides.

The warning was especially for residents of Penghu, an island group in the middle of the Taiwan Strait, and Kinmen, another archipelago near southeast China's Fujian province.

The two island groups might be hit by the storm if it continued on its current track, the Central Weather Bureau said.

At 03:00 GMT, Meranti was about 180 kilometres (110 miles) west of the southern-most tip of Taiwan, the bureau said.

It was moving north-northwest at speed of 15 kilometres per hour and may make landfall in Fujian Friday, according to the bureau.

As the alert below states, Typhoon Meranti is currently making landfall in Fujian province near Quanzhou as a Cat 1 typhoon.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Sep, 2010 18:00 GMT

Typhoon MERANTI (11W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Another tropical storm to hit South China

2010-09-08T20:00:00.002-05:00

A new tropical storm has formed in the South China Sea and is heading for the Chinese province of Guangdong. This storm is moving steadily towards the coast and is expected to make landfall between Hong Kong and Zhangzhou.
Tropical storm heading for south China(China Daily)

BEIJING - The 10th tropical storm to hit China this year is expected to land in southern coastal regions between Thursday evening and midday Friday, the country's meteorological authorities warned Wednesday.

The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) National Meteorological Center said the storm, which formed in the South China Sea Wednesday, was moving westward with wind speeds of 10 to 15 kilometers an hour at its eye.

It was expected to gain strength and become more powerful before landing at the east of Guangdong Province and the south of Fujian Province, said the meteorological center.

Tropical Storm Igor forms near Cape Verde Islands

2010-09-08T19:49:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Igor formed in the far east Atlantic Ocean just south of the Cape Varde Islands. The storm will bring tropical storm conditions to the islands later tonight and tomorrow. It is slowly increasing in intensity and is expected to become a hurricane by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Igor forms in the Atlantic(Examiner)

A tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic, off of Cape Verde, Western Africa. This tropical storm, named Igor, is forecast to become a hurricane before the start of the weekend, heading west toward the Lesser Antilles next week.

The system has wind speeds of of 45 mph at the current time and is moving west at 6 mph. This is the speed of a sprint on a racetrack or a light jog.

Current long term projections call for Igor to follow a path similar to that of Hurricane Danielle a few weeks ago. A front is expected to cross the US pushing the remnants of Hermine to the east and then steer the path of Igor to the north possibly towards Bermuda.

Hermine continues to pound North Texas

2010-09-08T19:32:00.003-05:00

Heavy rain continues to fall across Central and North Texas driving total rainfall amounts to very high levels. Flooding in many areas has resulted in several high water rescues and road closures.

Excessive rain from "Hermine" floods roads in Metroplex; Rain totals UPDATED(Examiner)

Rainfall totals have been rapidly moving upwards thanks to heavy bands of rain associated with the circulation of Tropical Depression Hermine.

--snip--

There were also some stronger storms which formed in a spiral band associated with Hermine. A 65mph wind gust was reported in Seagoville around lunch time.

This rainfall will continue on and off overnight with a sharp drop in precipitation coverage and intensity by tomorrow.

Several severe storms have been spawned in some of the rainbands left over from Hermine. Wind gusts as high as 65 MPH were observed in one town and 4 tornadoes were seen within the Dallas Metroplex.

Tornadoes touch down in Dallas (CNN)

Dallas, Texas (CNN) -- At least four tornadoes spawned by Tropical Depression Hermine touched down in and around Dallas, Texas, on Wednesday evening, sending up debris and swirling around buildings.

Sirens went off in downtown Dallas as one funnel cloud was spotted in Cockrell Hill southwest of downtown, according to CNN affiliate WFAA.

One tornado was reported in Ellis County and three in Dallas County, according to CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward.

--snip--

Forecasters had said most parts of central and eastern Texas and Oklahoma could receive 4 to 6 inches of rain, but the numbers for some parts of Texas were staggering.

Before the bulk of the storm moved out of Texas, Georgetown had received 13.2 inches of rain Wednesday, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hydrometeorological Center. Cedar Park had received 12.9 inches; Anderson Mill, 12.7 inches; Killeen, 11.6 inches; and Austin, 11.4 inches. Fort Worth had recorded 6.8 inches of rain, San Antonio, 6.7 inches and Houston, 4.4 inches.

Aerial images showed scores of flooded streets and some rescues in Dallas.

Portions of Austin had endured 15 inches of rain, and a middle-age motorist was missing after her car was washed away, Emergency Management spokeswoman Reyne Telles said. The car was found.

Thirty-two roads were closed, and an engineer from the watershed department said this could be a 250-year event, Telles told CNN.

The remains of Hermine are spread across four states with the heaviest storms in North Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas and is spreading north into southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

Hermine reaches Central Texas as a tropical storm

2010-09-07T19:43:00.002-05:00

Tropical storm Hermine remained a tropical storm as it moved into Texas today. As of this afternoon, the center of the storm was clearly visible on radar and windspeeds were still above the 39 MPH required to classify the system as a tropical storm.

Heavy rain, thunder and lightning covered much of the area from Galveston to Texarkana and Dallas to San Antonio. Rainfall may be excessive and record setting in many areas and flooding is a concern for the next couple of days.

Flash flood watches, warnings issued across Central Texas(News 8 Austin)

Though all coastal tropical storm warnings were discontinued Tuesday afternoon, Central Texas has at least another day to soak up the damp spin-off.

Around 6 p.m. Tuesday, a tornado warning was issued for eastern Travis County and part of Williamson and Burnet counties. The NWS reported a funnel cloud was spotted just south of Manor, but there were no other reports of a tornado. The warning was canceled around 7 p.m.

--snip--

Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall Monday, causing more than 30,000 electrical outages in the Brownsville-Harlingen area, as it moved over the Rio Grande and into South Texas. Expected to weaken into tropical depression by Tuesday night, Hermine moved between San Antonio and Austin Tuesday afternoon, shedding heavy rain and high wind gusts in the area.

The National Weather Service advises that heavy rains could cause flash flooding, and notes that isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southeast and central Texas Tuesday. McLennan County is one of the areas under tornado watch.

"Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, from the middle Texas coast northward through Central Texas, and over central and eastern Oklahoma," according a NWS public advisory."

Rain totals may exceed 2 to 3 inches in some areas. Portions west of Austin could see as much as 5 to 7 inches of rain, and areas from west Travis County to Burnet County could very well see the worst of it, starting at sunset Tuesday and ending at sunrise Wednesday.

A tornado watch has been in place from the coast into the Hill Country essentially covering a rectangle that was bisected by IH-45.

Tornado watch issued for much of Dallas-Fort Worth(Dallas Morning News)

Rainfall totals exceeded 2 inches in many locations today — about what Dallas-Fort Worth can expect in an entire September — with chances for more heavy storms lingering Wednesday and much of the day Thursday.

A tornado watch is in place until 8 p.m. tonight for the following counties: Collin, Dallas, Denton, Hunt, Kaufman , Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant and Wise.

Hermine came ashore near the Texas-Mexico border on Monday and took a northerly swing that carried the center of the storm over San Antonio, just west of Austin and up into the Hill Country. That track should take the heart of the storm well west of the Dallas area Wednesday.

"We see it heading toward Abilene, and driving copious amounts of moisture along both sides of the Interstate 35 corridor,” said Joe Harris, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth. “It means rain, chances of tornadoes, and gusty winds into Thursday.”

Around 5 pm CDT Hermine finally started to break apart and was downgraded to a tropical depression. The storm is spreading its energy and rainband across the eastern half of the state. Rainfall as high as 8 inches is possible in teh northern areas of Texas, through the central portion of Oklahoma and into Kansas.

Graphic courtesy of The Weather Channel

Tropical Storm hermine makes Landfall

2010-09-07T09:39:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore in northern Mexico late Monday night, quicjkly crossing the border into Texas. As the radar shows, this storm is pumping massive amounts of heavy rain into central and northern Texas from the Gulf.

Hermine struck land with 65 MPH sustained winds. The stoprms windspeed will slowly decrease as the day progresses and the storm will become a tropical depression

Tropical Storm Hermine Crosses Into Texas(Fox News)

Hermine made landfall in northeastern Mexico late Monday and crossed into Texas within hours, bringing with it winds of up to 65 mph (100 kph). It moved on a path similar to the one Hurricane Alex took in late June, and like that Category 1 storm, threatened to dump up to a foot of rain in some areas and cause flash flooding.

Hermine was no Alex in terms of strength. But Hermine wasn't taken lightly: Mexican emergency officials in Tamaulipas worked to evacuate 3,500 people around Matamoros, across the border from Brownsville, Texas, and schools on both sides of the border canceled classes Tuesday.

By early Tuesday, the center of the storm had crossed the Rio Grande River. The National Hurricane Center said the storm was about 10 miles (15 km) south-southwest of Harlingen, Texas, and 20 miles (30 km) northwest of Brownsville. It was moving north-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph).

A tropical storm warning was in effect from Rio San Fernando, Mexico, north to Port O'Connor, Texas.

Video: Tropical Storm hermine soaks South Texas (Associated Press)

Hermine will soak most of Texas all the way up through Dallas with potentially as much as a foot of rain. The stronger, wet side of this storm is acting as a pump bringing moisture up from the Gulf in heavy sheets of rain and thunderstorms. Flash flood watches and warnings are in effect. People need to take shelter from the flooding which has the potential to be quite severe.

Rain from Tropical Storm Hermine to give Dallas days-long soaking(Dallas Morning News)

Mexico may be bearing the brunt of Tropical Storm Hermine today, but she’s making her presence felt in North Texas, too.

"We are going to be on the wet side of Hermine," said Nick Hampshire, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth

--snip--

Hermine made landfall in Mexico early this morning and quickly made its way into Texas with harsh winds and rainfall.

A flash flood watch is in effect through Thursday morning for the Dallas area, which is expected to experience rain through Wednesday night.

"There may be a few brief periods were the rain will stop," Hampshire said, "but we will mostly see light to moderate rain with a few embedded heavier showers."

Hermine's wet wrath should end by Wednesday evening as the storm tapers off, but rain remains in the forecast through Thursday.

Tropical Storm Malou impacts Korea

2010-09-06T11:06:00.003-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Korea Meteorological Administration

After being battered by Tropical Storm Kompasu last week, another tropical storm takes aim on South Korea, this time at the southern end of the peninsula. Malou has been moving generally northward as a tropical storm throughout the past week bringing heavy rain to eastern China but otherwise not impacting land.

Malou is now crossing the island of Jeju where a typhoon warning is in place. The storm will cross the southern end of the peninsula very close to or directly over the city of Pusan.

Tropical Storm Malou Churns Toward South Korea as Typhoon Warning Issued(Bloomberg)

Tropical Storm Malou headed toward South Korea, where five people died when a cyclone struck last week, the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Center said.

Malou was 122 kilometers (76 miles) south of Jeju at 9 a.m. Seoul time today, the center said. The storm is forecast to hit the island before crossing southern regions of the country tomorrow, the center said.

The storm had sustained winds of 74 kilometers per hour and Malou is expected to maintain strength as it reaches Jeju about 3 p.m. local time today, the center said.

The Korea Meteorological Administration issued a typhoon warning for Jeju and surrounding seas, and a heavy rain watch for Ulsan in the southeast of the country, it said on its website.

After brushing against Korea, Malou will continue on and cross Japan north of Tokyo in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Hermine forms; Heading for Central and South Texas

2010-09-06T10:12:00.003-05:00

Radar courtesy of Weather Underground

Tropical Storm Hermine formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico and currently has winds of 50 MPH with gusts as high as 65 MPH. The radar is showing that rain from this storm is already coming ashore in south Texas. As the storm moves onshore, the forecast is that South and Central Texas will be hit with heavy rain with a good potential for flooding.

Hermine's Flood Danger, Even Well After Landfall(AccuWeather)

Bands of drenching rain will increase across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas into this afternoon as Hermine approaches. Any heavy bursts of rain could trigger localized flash flooding.

Steadier and heavier rain will pour down across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico tonight into Tuesday as Hermine moves inland. By the end of Tuesday, these areas will be inundated by 4 to 8 inches of rain with localized amounts of up to a foot.

Flooding will quickly ensue in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Small streams and creeks will rise rapidly and overflow their banks. Residents, especially those in flood-prone areas, should spend today planning for possible evacuation orders.

Officials may be forced to close roads that become inundated with flood waters.

Even if barricades are not in place, motorists are reminded never to drive through a road covered in water. The roadway underneath may be washed away or the water's swift current could sweep away your vehicle.

The danger of flooding in southern Texas and northeastern Mexico will persist several days after Hermine departs. Similar to what occurred in the wake of Hurricane Alex, the Rio Grande River will eventually rise as the flood waters drain downstream.

As the river becomes swollen, neighboring land and communities will be at risk for flooding.

The computer models all seem to be quite well aligned converging on landfall just south of Brownsville, TX. Once onshore the storm will curve towards the north spreading heavy rain across central Texas for several days even after it loses Tropical Storm status.

Graphic courtesy of Spaghettimodels.com

A tropical storm warning is in place from Tampico to the mouth of the Rio Grande in Mexico and then From the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor in Texas. A hurricane Watch is in effect from Rio San Fernando, Mexico to Baffin Bay, Texas (source: Weather Underground)

Tropical Storm Hermine gaining strength in Gulf
(KHOU)

MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Hermine is getting a little stronger in the Gulf of Mexico as it heads toward the coasts of Texas and Mexico.

A tropical storm warning was issued early Monday for the southern Texas coast. A tropical storm warning was already in effect for the coast of Mexico from Tampico to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

Hermine’s maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 kph) with some additional strengthening expected before the storm makes landfall.

Heavy rain is predicted with northeastern Mexico into south Texas getting 4 to 8 inches with as much as a foot in some places. It could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Developing tropical systems

2010-09-03T21:10:00.003-05:00

Several storms are developing in both the Atlantic and the Pacific basins.

Tropical Storm Gaston disintegrated into a remnant low pressure system over the past few days from a Tropical Storm due to interactions with dry air and wind shear. Today these remnants have been reorganizing and the NHC is projecting a 60% chance that Gaston will re-develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

To the east of Gaston's remains is a rather vigorous tropical wave that is showing signs of organizing near the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC has increased the likelihood of organization to 30% this evening.

In the Eastern Pacific, two tropical depressions have formed along the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Depression 10E has 35 MPH sustained winds. It is located to the southwest of Baja California and is moving away from land. The system is not expected to strengthen and is only a concern for shipping interests.

Tropical Depression 11E is located near the southern coast of Mexico. It also has 35 MPH winds and is moving towards the southern Mexican coast. It is expected to become a Tropical Storm before making landfall. Once it makes landfall, the computer models show several pathways all of which take the storm up through Mexico. There is a very slight chance that the system could enter the Gulf and re-develop.

Tropical Storm Fiona degrades; no threat to Bermuda

2010-09-03T20:51:00.004-05:00

Tropical Storm Fiona continually battled wind shear coming off Hurricane Earl throughout its trip from the Leeward Island northward in the central Atlantic. Fiona struggled to retain its Tropical Storm status and succeeded until tonight's hurricane update. Fiona now has winds of 35 MPH and is a tropical depression.

Fiona is moving just to the east of Bermuda and is lashing the island with winds of just at or below minimal tropical storm strength. A tropical storm warning has been cancelled but a small craft advisory is in effect through Saturaday.

Residents and visitors should still be cautious as there could be strong thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Fiona.

Fiona weakens to a tropical depression in Atlantic(Associated Press)

MIAMI — To the southeast of Earl in the Atlantic, Fiona is weakening and has become a tropical depression as it heads toward Bermuda.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Fiona had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph). Fiona or its remnants are expected to pass near or east of Bermuda on Saturday. The island could see about an inch or less of rainfall.

Hurricane Earl weakens, continues trek to Canada

2010-09-03T20:15:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Earl roared past North Carolina last night and this morning as a category 2 storm bringin heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge flooding to the Outer Banks. Earl had been a Category 4 hurricane just 24 hours before passing the coast creating a very high storm surge even as the storms windspeed dropped from 140 MPH to 110 MPH.

Video: Earl soaks NC Coast; Heads for New England (Associated Press)

Hurricane Earl has dimished further and is now a Category 1 storm as it heads north towards the Canadian maritimes. Even though Earl is much weaker than it had been, it is still a dangerous storm and should be respected. Residents should remain indoors while storm conditions exist.

Hurricane Earl becomes Category 1 storm (Boston Herald)

That National Hurricane Center discontinued hurricane warnings between Hull and Cape Elizabeth, Maine, but Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket still must brace for the storm.

Earl is expected to pass 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket with winds picking up as early as 3 p.m. and the greatest impact of the storm hitting from 8 p.m. to 2 a.m., Patrick said. The state of emergency remains in effect.

“This is a storm not necessarily to be afraid of, but we should respect the storm,” said Federal Emergency Management Agency Deputy Administrator Rich Serino.

Earl was downgraded to a Category 1 storm earlier today after roaring past North Carolina as a Catergory 2 hurricane with winds of 115 miles per hour.

Even as the storm weakens, officials warn the hurricane is still expected to bring down trees and power lines, pack strong winds and hurricane gusts and usher in rip tides.

As a precaution, Amtak canceled all train service between New York and Boston and the Coast Guard has closed all ports in southeast New England.

Earl continues to steadily weaken as it moves towards the north and with 80 MPH sustained winds will soon be a minimal hurricane. Earl is expected to decrease in strength a become a tropical storm before reaching the Canadian coast.

Outer bands of Hurricane Earl lash the Cape and Islands (Boston Globe)

The outer bands of Hurricane Earl lashed the Cape and Islands early this evening with rain and crashing waves as the diluted storm chugged toward New England.

Forecasters expected the intermittent showers and steady breeze to intensify over the next few hours, with the brunt of the storm glancing Nantucket some time after midnight. Earl's maximum sustained winds dropped from 105 miles per hour this morning to 80 miles per hour this evening. As it sloshed up the Eastern Seaboard, the storm may lose more of its punch, but authorities continued to urge people in its path not to take Earl for granted.

"Although Hurricane Earl has weakened some, it is still a potentially dangerous storm and residents should continue to take Earl seriously and get ready," said Craig Fugate, Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The most recent forecast put the hurricane 230 miles southeast of Nantucket off the coast of Delaware. The swirl of clouds is expected to accelerate as it heads north.

"The good news on Earl is that it has been steadily weakening, maybe even a little quicker than forecast," Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a telephone news conference. "It may even go below hurricane strength about the time it passes southern New England overnight tonight."

--snip--

While the hurricane may not be as strong and close as was originally predicted, its winds, hitting trees full of foliage, will still be able to down or uproot them, causing scattered power outages, particularly on the Cape and islands, forecasters said. Tropical storm force winds are defined as winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour.

The storm will also bring some areas heavy rains of up to 6 inches over a 6-hour period, raising the possibility of urban and poor drainage flooding, as well as small stream flooding. The storm is not expected to cause serious coastal flooding because it is hitting at a perfect time -- low tide. But it is expected to stir up heavy surf and dangerous rip currents along the coast, beginning today.

Forecasters warned that the dangerous conditions at the beach would persist into Saturday, then begin slowly easing on Sunday and Monday. They advised people to check with local lifeguards about conditions before jumping in.

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane EARL

2010-09-02T21:26:00.002-05:00

Tonight Hurricane Earl will make a run up the east coast of the US. Earl is expected to scrape North Carolina's Outer Banks around midnight and scoot up the coastline towards New England. Earl will parallel the coast bringing Tropical Storm force winds to Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey and Long Island. Storm track projections indicate that Earl will make a direct landfall on the Massachusetts coast at Cape Cod and Nantucket Island.

Hurricane Earl path stretches from North Carolina to Boston Harbor(The Christian Science Monitor)

Hurricane Earl, some 300 miles south of North Carolina's Cape Hatteras, has now prompted tropical-storm or hurricane warnings from the Tar Heel State's coast to the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border.

Coastal New England from Westport, Mass., to Hull, a town at the end of a peninsula forming part of Boston Harbor, is the latest swath of coastline to come under a hurricane warning.

From the North Carolina-Virgina border up to Westport, the entire coastline is under a tropical storm warning. The Delmarva Peninsula is under a hurricane watch as well.

--snip--

"The storm is "pretty much right down the track we we've been anticipating now for two days," he says.

But the storm's track isn't the only factor feeding concerns about the storm's effect on the Eastern seaboard. Hurricane Earl's winds extend far beyond its tight central eye. Earl is a broad storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending some 200 to 230 miles from the center. Hurricane-force winds extend for about 90 miles from the eye.

And Earl could get larger. The storm appears set to undergo a process called eyewall replacement -– common to major tropical cyclone, notes Dr. Read.

Essentially, the existing eye vanishes after being surrounded by another wall of rainclouds. This outer wall becomes a new eye, with a larger diameter. That has the effect of pushing tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds further toward the storm's edges than they had been.

As Hurricane Earl moves north, the storm is expected to steadily decrease in strength. The size of this storm is suh that the effects will be felt quite a good distance inland even as Earl decreases from a Category 4 storm to a Cat 2 tonight.

Earl path is expected to hamper Labor Day weekend shore plans(Star Ledger)

Earlier tonight, the center of the hurricane was 440 miles south of Atlantic City, and although the storm had weakened from a category 3 to a category 2, it still was packing winds as strong as 110 mph. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated 26 million people from North Carolina to Maine could face hurricane or tropical storm conditions, based on the projected path of the storm.

The outer bands of Earl are expected to brush the southern Jersey Shore at about noon Friday and rapidly move north toward the eastern end of Long Island by late in the evening.

However, coastal communities in Cape May, Atlantic and Ocean counties could start feeling some sustained tropical storm-force winds as early as Friday morning, the National Weather Service said. The entire Jersey Shore should brace for the possibility of tropical storm conditions, including up to an inch of rain and winds stronger than 50 mph during the early afternoon and late afternoon.

-----------------------------------------------------------

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2010 21:00 GMT (5:00 pm EDT)

Intense Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Canada
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)
probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Portland (43.5 N, 70.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Hartford (41.5 N, 72.7 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Hurricane Earl Watches and Warnings

2010-09-01T22:41:00.002-05:00

Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

Hurricane Warning extends from Surf City, NC to the NC/Va border

Preparations should be complete or nearly complete. Hurricane conditions are possible in the next 24 hours

Hurricane Watch from the NC /VA border through the Delaware beaches and for Cape Cod, Mass

Make preparations for the approaching storms - bring any loose items inside, secure anything that can fly away but cannot be brought inside. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the next 36 - 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of New Jersey and the southern coast of North Carolina.

Topical Storm Watch for northern New Jersey coast, New York City, and Long Island

Two tropical storms make landfall in China

2010-09-01T21:32:00.003-05:00

Two tropical storm that brushed past Taiwan turned inland and made landfall in Fujian province, in southeast China.

Tropical Storm Namtheun passed through the Straits of Taiwan and turned west making landall yesterday in Quanzhou City. Tropical Storm Lionrock is making landfall currently with 55 MPH average winds near the border of Guandong and Fujian provinces.

SE China faces tropical storm Lionrock after Namtheun lands (Xinhua)

SHANGHAI, Sept. 1 (Xinhua) -- Tropical storm Lionrock will bring heavy rains and strong gales to southeast China's coastal areas, closely following tropical storm Namtheun which hit Fujian Province a day ago, local authorities said Wednesday.

Tropical storm Lionrock had weakened but was moving quicker at 10 p.m. Tuesday, heading towards the coastal cities of Guangdong and Fujian provinces, according to Guangdong Provincial observatory.

Moving at a speed of 83 kilometers per hour, Lionrock is expected to make landfall in the area from Guangsong's Shanwei City to Fujian's Xiamen City, late Wednesday or early Thursday, and might strengthen before landing, said Lin Liangxun, forecaster of the observatory.

Lionrock will bring heavy rain to the area from Tuesday to Thursday.

Another tropical storm named Namtheun, which made landfall in Hui'an County in Quanzhou City in Fujian at 11:50 p.m. Tuesday and is expected to weaken early Wednesday afternoon.

The Namtheun is forecasted to blast Fujian's coastal cities, including Quanzhou, Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Putian, from Thursday to Friday, with heavy rains, according to Fujian provincial observatory.

Typhoon Kompasu slams into South Korea

2010-09-01T21:13:00.003-05:00

Typhoon Kompasu slammed into South Korea this morning local time as a Category 1 typhoon. The storms forward speed increased significantly resulting in the typhoon making landfall around 6 hours earlier than expected.

The eye of the typhoon is expected to cross over or very near to Seoul bringing heavy rain and flooding to the city.

Typhoon Kompasu batters Seoul and west coastal areas (JoongAng Daily)

Typhoon Kompasu struck central South Korea early Thursday morning, bringing downpours and gusts that paralyzed metro operations in the Seoul metropolitan area, caused massive power outages along the west coast and forced airlines to cancel or divert domestic and international flights.

With almost all above-ground sections of Seoul's subway lines out of service, street trees toppled and winds blowing at a speed of over 20 meters per second, drivers, commuters and students were forced to undergo the worst transportation chaos in decades.

Meteorologists say Kompasu, which means "compass" in Japanese, is the strongest tropical storm to hit the Seoul metropolitan area in 15 years.

One person, an 80-year old, was killed when he was hit by a flying roof tile. No other deaths have been reported so far.

Kompasu weakened from a Category 3 typhoon right after is crossed over Okinawa to a Category 1 on the Safir-Simpson scale over the past two days. The mountainous terrain of Korea will tear up this storm to a tropical storm or depression by the time it re-emerges over water on teh other side of the peninsula.

Typhoon Kompasu Hits Korea(The Chosun Ilbo)

Kompasu weakened from Category 3, with winds between 178 km/h and 209 km/h, to a Category 2 storm with winds between 154 km/h and 177 km/h on Wednesday morning.

Winds weakened further once it made landfall. On Wednesday the KMA predicted rainfall for Thursday ranging from 50 mm to 150 mm and strong winds. More than 300 mm of heavy rain were expected in northern Gyeonggi Province, northern Gangwon Province, Jeju Island and the southern coast of Korea as well as Mt. Jiri.

Warnings – A Book Review

2010-09-01T10:35:00.003-05:00

A horrific train wreck caused by the washout of the rails averted by skilled and accurate weather forecasting. Mike Smith begins his book “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather” describing what he calls a phantom accident. This is an accident that never occurred. Did Mike just dream this up? No the situation actually took place. The roadbed was washed out. The catastrophe was avoided through the diligent forecasting by Mike and his colleagues who were able to issue a warning well in advance of pending danger.

Mike Smith is a meteorologist who has been observant of the weather since childhood. His book intricately weaves the development of meteorological technology with his professional biography describing the developments and advancements in both. Mike describes how the civilian Weather Service grew from an organization that would not provide a warning for fear of causing panic to one that provides accurate information data and warnings and near real-time data to the general public resulting in an untold number of lives saved.

“Warnings” focuses on how developments in radar technology and forecasting methods grew to provide accurate information to the general public allowing us all to prepare by either taking shelter or evacuating. Mike describes how these developments helped the forecasting of severe weather and the formation of tornadoes. He then shows how this same technology is used in hurricane tracking, discussing how warnings were issued during Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Andrew. Mike then goes into detail of his experiences during Hurricane Katrina.

While reading “Warnings”, my frequent thought was that this was a book about heroes. Like firefighters who run into a burning building while the rest of us scatter, today’s meteorologists and storm chasers run to the storm to get the data that will bring the rest of us the information we need to be prepared for the storms that are approaching. Mike Smith is certainly in that category along with Major Fawbush and Captain Miller of the Air Force (1948). I would also add the many men and women who provide us the weather information we take for granted every day.

“Warnings” is an excellent read that I recommend for anyone who has an interest in weather systems or is affected by them.

Warnings can be purchase from Amazon.com via the link on Mike Smith Enterprises blog.

Typhoon Kompasu grows - Heads towards the Koreas

2010-08-31T21:02:00.004-05:00

Typhoon Kompasu crossed over Okinawa yesterday and almost immediately grew to a Category 3 typhoon. Sustained winds are as high as 115 MPH with gusts as high as 145 MPH.

Initial concern was that Kompasu would brush against Shanghai. The forecast path now has the storm remaining off-shore but the city will still receive heavy rain and some gust winds.

Shanghai on alert for typhoon (The Straits Times)

SHANGHAI closed schools on Wednesday as a precaution against heavy rains and high winds from Typhoon Kompasu, while authorities monitored potential damage at the World Expo.

The storm was forecast to remain offshore, swinging to the north-east and passing over the Korean peninsula later this week.

Authorities said they were on alert for wind damage and flooding at the World Expo site, which has seen crowds of several hundred thousand people a day in recent weeks. The event, which began May 1, ends on Oct 31.

China's official Xinhua News Agency reported that 246 tourists were stranded on Nanji Island, off the coast of Zhejiang province to the south of Shanghai, because ferry services were suspended due to strong gales.

Typhoon Kompasu will pass up into the Yellow Sea and will then turn towards the east striking land right around the 38th parallel border between North and South Korea. The typhoon will slam into South Korea's capital Seoul as a Cat 2 storm.

Both countries will receive very heavy rain with a strong potential for flooding. North Korea has struggled with excessive flooding already this year. North Korea has already evacuated residents in towns on its border with China.

Typhoon Kompasu approaching Korea(The Korea Times)

A typhoon is fast approaching the Korean Peninsula, with heavy rains and winds forecast for Thursday, the weather agency said Tuesday.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the typhoon — Kompasu, which mean compass in Japanese — is swirling toward the western part of the peninsula at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour from waters off Okinawa, Japan.

Jeju Island is expected to be hit first, Wednesday, and then the entire country will be drenched through Thursday, the KMA said.
“It remains to be seen which way the typhoon will move. Given the route so far and other data, it is forecast to get even stronger and soak the western coast of the country,” said Kim Seung-bae, a KMA spokesman.

In particular, heavy rains of more than 120 millimeters are expected on the southern and western coasts.
“Some regions may see torrential downpours of more than 40 millimeters of rain per hour,” Kim said.

Hurricane Earl heading for North Carolina coast

2010-08-31T19:49:00.004-05:00

Hurricane Earl is a very intense and dangerous storm with 135 MPH sustained winds and gusts as high as 160 MPH. The computer models are all showing very good alignment (see graphic at right courtesy of spaghettimodels.com) as the storm approaches North Carolina.

As Earl reaches Cape Hatteras, the models start to diverge slightly as the forecast track opens up. Based on the computer models, the projected path of Earl has been forecast (see graphic below courtesy of The Weather Channel).

Depending on which specific portion of the projected path - the zone of uncertainty - that the eye of the hurricane follows will determine the potential extent of damage that Earl can cause. If Earl follows the eastern side of the forecast track, then the result will be gusty winds and rain. However, if Earl tracks along the western edge of the cone then the damage to the North Carolina coast could be quite severe.

A small change in the steering currents can have a major effect on the path that this hurricane takes.

UPDATE 6-Hurricane Earl could sideswipe U.S. East Coast(Reuters)

MIAMI, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Powerful Hurricane Earl churned toward the eastern U.S. seaboard on Tuesday and looked to sideswipe the densely populated coast from North Carolina to New England, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters expected the main core of the Category 4 hurricane to stay offshore as Earl moved parallel to the coast during the upcoming Labor Day holiday weekend that traditionally marks the end of summer.

A hurricane watch was issued for most of the North Carolina coastline as officials warned any westward deviation from the forecast track could prompt coastal evacuations or even bring the storm ashore.

"A small error of 100 miles (160 km) in the wrong direction could be a huge impact difference," National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read told a conference call with journalists.

"Even a minor shift back to the west could bring impacts to portions of the coastline from the mid-Atlantic northwards."

In preparation, a hurricane watch has been issued for must if the North Carolina coast. Mandatory evacuations have been issued for all visitors to Oracoke Island - about 5,000 people.

Evacuation ordered for N.C. island ahead of Earl(MSNBC)

RALEIGH, North Carolina — North Carolina officials ordered tourists and residents to leave a barrier island accessible only by ferries as powerful Hurricane Earl headed toward the U.S. coast on Tuesday.

Hyde County emergency management officials plan a Wednesday morning evacuation of Ocracoke Island. The decision came late Tuesday, as the hurricane whipped north of the Caribbean with winds of up to 135 mph.

Authorities said the evacuation order would affect about 5,000 visitors to the island.

The fewer than 800 year-round residents are also being asked to leave but aren't required to follow the order.

Hurricane Earl pounds islands

2010-08-31T17:20:00.003-05:00

Hurricane Earl pounded teh Leeward islands with hurricane force winds and heavy rain yesterday. The storm itself reached Category 4 status on the Safir-Simpson scale but the heaviest winds remained offshore of the islands. Hurricane and tropical storm force winds hit the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico ripping roofs from houses and cuttting power.

No deaths have been reported due to Earl so far. Hurricane Danielle caused two deaths on the US east coast due to rip tides.

Hurricane Earl Pounds Turks And Caicos; U.S. Braces(WSOCTV)

Earl delivered a glancing blow to several small Caribbean islands Monday, tearing roofs off of homes and cutting electricity to people in Anguilla, Antigua, and St. Maarten. Cruise ships were diverted and flights canceled across the region. But there were no reports of death or injury.

Gusty winds from Earl's outer fringes were whipping palm fronds and whistling through doors as Turks and Caicos Islands residents hunkered down in their homes and tied-down boats seesawed on white-crested surf.

--snip--

The storm's center passed just north of the British Virgin Islands on Monday afternoon. Despite a few lost fishing boats and several uprooted trees in Tortola and Anegada, there were no reports of major damage or injuries, said Sharleen DaBreo, disaster management agency director.

By midday Tuesday, Earl's center was about 205 miles east of Grand Turk island as it headed west-northwest at 14 mph, according to the hurricane center. Hurricane strength winds extended up to 70 miles from the center, it said.

Tropical storm conditions were expected to spread into the Turks and Caicos by Tuesday afternoon.

--snip--

In Puerto Rico, nearly 187,000 people were without power and another 60,000 without water, Gov. Luis Fortuno said. More than a dozen roads along the north coast remained closed as crews removed trees and downed power lines.

In St. Maarten, sand and debris littered the streets, and winds knocked down trees and electricity poles and damaged roofs. But police spokesman Ricardo Henson said there was no extensive damage to property.

In Antigua, at least one home was destroyed but there were no reports of serious injuries. Governor General Dame Louise Agnetha Lake-Tack declared Monday a public holiday to keep islanders off the road and give them a chance to clean up.

Video: Hurricane Earl heads for US after hitting Caribbean(RT)

Earl is now heading towards the US east Coast. It is expected to remain a Cat 4 hurricane although there are likely to be fluctuations in strength as the storm goes through eye-wall replacement and grows during its trek across the Atlantic.

Hurricane Earl threatens US Coast after hitting Caribbean(Washington Post)

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- Hurricane Earl, now a powerful Category 4 storm, barreled toward the U.S. coast early Tuesday after battering tiny islands across the northeastern Caribbean with heavy rain and winds that damaged homes and toppled power lines.

Earl is forecast to potentially brush the U.S. East Coast late Thursday, before curving back out to sea, potentially swiping New England or far-eastern Canada. The U.S. National Hurricane Center warned coastal residents from North Carolina to Maine to watch the storm closely.

"Any small shift in the track could dramatically alter whether it makes landfall or whether it remains over the open ocean," said Wallace Hogsett, a meteorologist at the center. "I can't urge enough to just stay tuned."

Tropical Storm Fiona forms in the Atlantic

2010-08-30T19:39:00.003-05:00

Tropical Storm Fiona formed today in the North Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands in the wake of Major Hurricane Earl. Fiona had some difficulty organizing into a tropical storm due to dry air coming from Africa. Projections are that Fiona will remain a tropical storm at least through the rest of the week.

Meanwhile, Danielle continues to weaken as she moves towards the north and is now a Tropical Storm.

Tropical Taiwan Sandwich

2010-08-30T19:12:00.004-05:00

Two typhoons are hitting Taiwan from opposite ends about a day apart. Tropical Storm Namtheun and Severe Tropical Storm Lionrock are in the process of giving the island of Taiwan a one-two punch.

Typhoons bring torrential rain to Taiwan (Radio Taiwan)

The Central Weather Bureau said Monday that torrential rains have come to Taiwan due to the outer bands of Typhoon Lionrock and a tropical depression system. The bureau told coastal cities to watch out for strong winds and the whole island to be on the alert for mudslides.

Namtheun developed, seemingly out of nowhere, and is proceeding across the northern shore of the island. Namtheun is increasing in intensity and may become a Category 1 typhoon before it crosses the Taiwan Strait. Much of the storm will cross over the capital, Taipei.

Taiwan issues warnings for severe tropical storm(Reuters)

Taiwan officials issued land and sea warnings on Tuesday for a severe tropical storm, the island's first this year, with heavy rain and wind gusts up to 90 kph (60 mph) expected before it heads to China.

Although the storm falls one level short of a full-blown typhoon, Taiwan authorities are especially on guard after the island's worst typhoon in 50 years, also forecast as a relatively weak storm, killed about 700 people in August 2009.

That prompted a cabinet reshuffle as citizens accused the government of reacting too slowly.

The storm dubbed Namtheun, centred 50 km (31 miles) north of Taiwan at 2015 GMT, was expected to reach northern areas of the island by early Wednesday with sustained winds up to 65 kph, the Central Weather Bureau said on its website (www.cwb.gov.tw).

Namtheun will pass over the capital Taipei and the island's major northern port city Keelung, the weather bureau said. It warned of mudslides, rockfalls and sudden swelling of rivers.

The storm could grow to a category 1 typhoon, the mildest on a 1-5 scale, and reach the coast of southeast China, according to forecasting website Tropical Storm Risk (www.tropicalstormrisk.com).

At the other end of the island, Typhoon Lionrock is approaching Taiwan from the southwest. Lionrock is expected to turn towards mainland China before making landfall with Taiwan but heavy rain is still expected.

Tropical Storm Lionrock expected to bring showers to Taiwan: CWB(Focus Taiwan News Channel)

Taipei, Aug. 29 (CNA) Showers of rain were expected to hit Taiwan Sunday as a tropical depression in waters south of the Dongsha (Pratas) Islands in the South China Sea already strengthened into a tropical storm early that day, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said.

The storm Lionrock has been moving directly toward southeastern China since its formation at 2 a.m. Sunday and is not expected to cause any direct threat to Taiwan, CWB officials said.

Typhoon Kompasu to strike Okinawa

2010-08-30T16:13:00.003-05:00

Typhoon Kompasu is bearing down on Okinawa as a Category 2 hurricane. The storm has sustained winds of 105 MPH and is still increasing in strength. The Japanese Meteorological Agency has issued storm and high wave warnings. Advisories have been issued for heavy rain, floods storm surge and thunderstorms.

Graphic courtesy of Japanese Meteorological Agency

Typhoon Kompasu Aimed for Okinawa(AccuWeather)

Typhoon Kompasu will strike Okinawa directly with winds of hurricane strength and torrential rain early Tuesday, EDT.

As of Monday morning, EDT, the center of Typhoon Kompasu was located about 250 miles southeast of Naha, Okinawa. The highest sustained winds were approaching 85 mph, with movement toward the northwest at 8 mph.

Further strengthening is forecast before the center of Kompasu passes directly over, or at least near, the main island of Okinawa.

Wind gusts of more than 75 mph, or minimal hurricane strength, will cause damage.

Torrential rainfall of 4 to 8 inches will create a threat of flooding.

Beyond Okinawa, Kompasu will veer northward east of Shanghai, China, maybe even brushing the coast.

Ultimate landfall later in the week will be somewhere on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula.

Earl becomes a major hurricane

2010-08-30T12:32:00.003-05:00

UPDATE: Hurricane Earl has becoem a very intense category 4 hurricane with 135 MPH sustained winds. Earl continues to strengthen and is expected to remain a Cat 4 storm as it approaches the North Carolina coast.

------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Earl reach Category 3 status with sustained winds of 125 MPH. The virgin Islands are being blasted with Earl's strong winds and heavy rain. Puerto Rico is experienceing heavy flooding from Earl's outer rainbands.

Earl now major hurricane as it hits Caribbean(MSNBC)

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Hurricane Earl grew to a major Category 3 storm on Monday, lashing the northeastern Caribbean with heavy rain and 125 mph winds as it made a course that could threaten the eastern United States later this week.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Earl, which formed on Sunday, was likely to keep growing as it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Those areas were already seeing sporadic gusts and heavy rain early Monday.

"It is possible that Earl could become a Category 4 hurricane as we get into the middle to late portions of the week," hurricane center specialist Michael Brennan said. Category 4 storms have sustained winds of at least 131 mph.

The storm's forecast track would carry its center north of the Caribbean, then forecasters say it is likely to bend to the north, moving roughly parallel to the U.S. East Coast.

News Video Blogs Earl Now a Category 3 Hurricane, Eastern Puerto Rico in the Storm (AccuWeather)

Conditions across Puerto Rico will only get worse as the eye of Earl is predicted to pass about 60 miles north of the island. Flooding rain and tropical storm-force winds will hit through tonight. North-facing beaches will take a pounding by the heavy surf and storm surge of 2-4 feet.

Highest Wind Reports.

St. Martin - 88 mph

St. Thomas - 58 mph

San Juan - 31 mph

Rainfall Reports:

St. Croix - 0.96"

St. Thomas - 1.41"

San Juan - 0.98"

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane EARL slamming Leeward Islands

2010-08-30T09:27:00.001-05:00

Hurricane Earl is slamming into the Leeward and Virgin Islands in the Caribbean this morning with 110 MPH winds and gusts up to 125 MPH .

Worst of Earl Slams the Leeward Islands (AccuWeather)

Damaging hurricane-force winds will blast the Leeward Islands today. The strongest winds will whip over the northernmost islands. The strength of the Earl's winds threaten to cause widespread tree damage and power outages.

As the trees fall, additional structural damage and bodily harm may result. Roof damage is the main concern to well-built homes, but poorly-constructed homes may be destroyed or severely damaged.

Earl's torrential rain bands will also spread over the Leeward Islands. Several inches of rain will pour down, threatening to cause flooding.

Seas surrounding the islands will further heighten as Earl approaches with wave heights reaching 12 to 18 feet on north-facing coastal areas.

The Category 2 storm continues to strengthen in the warm Caribbean waters as windshear is very low. The storm is expected to become a major hurricane within 24 hours and is currently forecast to reach Category 4 status just as it approaches its closest point with the US east coast.

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2010 9:00 GMT

Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Anguilla
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadeloupe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Netherlands Antilles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Kitts and Nevis
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montserrat
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Puerto Rico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Dominica
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Hurricane Earl approaching the northernmost leeward islands

2010-08-29T16:17:00.004-05:00

Hurricane Earl became a Category 1 hurricane this morning, now has 85 MPH sustained winds and gusts up to 105 MPH and is steadily growing.

(Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground)

Hurricane warnings and watches have been issued as well as tropical storm watches by the National Hurricane Center:

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...(Weather Underground)

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Anguilla
* Saint Martin and Saint barthelemy
* St. Maarten...Saba...and St. Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands

a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S.Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques

hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area...in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations
to protect life and property should be nearing completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in this
case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Worst of Earl to Slam Leeward Islands Tonight, Monday(AccuWeather)

Strong winds high in the atmosphere (also known as wind shear) associated with Hurricane Danielle had been inhibiting Earl's ability to strengthen. That changed this morning as Danielle pushed farther away to the northeast.

Earl will continue to grow into a Category 2 hurricane into Monday morning, curving slightly more to the northwest in the process.

That slight turn should spare the Leeward Islands from a direct hit by Hurricane Earl. However, Earl will pass close enough to unleash most of its fury on the islands.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is expecting Earl to track within 50 miles of the northernmost Leeward Islands late tonight into Monday.
(Graphic courtesy of AccuWeather)

5 years ago - Hurricane Katrina

2010-08-29T14:17:00.003-05:00

Five years ago today, Hurricane Katrina barrelled into the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. The effects of this storm were both predictable and catastrophic. The idea of a major hurricane striking New Orleans causing the entire city to flood had been discussed for years before Katrina became a reality.

There have been many articles on the personal toll, the failure of government on all levels and the fact that much of the 9th Ward is still not re-built. Now that 5 years have passed we can begin to discuss what should have happened, what actually did happen and what needs to happen to prevent this type of catastrophe again. It is a certainty that some time in the future, New Orleans will be hit directly with a major hurricane head on. The city and the region must be prepared for a future landfalling hurricane.

First of all, the worst case scenario did not occur.

Hurricane Katrina did reach a Category 5 while in the Gulf but weakened to a Category 3 before coming ashore.

Additionally, the storm did not make a direct hit on the city. Just before coming ashore, Katrina veered to the east and actually made landfall near Bay St. Louis, MS.

What would happen if a Category 5 storm slammed directly into New Orleans? Would we be prepared? Is preparation even possible?

One thing that we need to look at is what was the intent and design of the levees in the first place and did they meet that design.

In the article "The levees didn't fail", Windell Curole explains that levees have always been considered successful in their task if they hold water back up to the point that the water spill over the top of the levees. At that point, the situation is beyond the design of the levee. Every system is designed to certain parameters and they are expected to work only within those parameters.

The levees didn't fail(HoumaToday)

The authorized projects for protection in the New Orleans area began with a barrier plan that would have protected the entire Pontchartrain basin, both north shore and south shore. Objections from an environmental organization and fishing groups forced the abandonment of the barrier plan. The Corps of Engineers was forced to develop the high-level plan, which consisted of flood protection, levees, gates and walls protecting the populated areas on the south shore.

A major weakness of the high-level plan was the failure to build flood protection where the drainage canals intersected the lake.

Where levees were built along the lake, the canals were left open and used thousands of feet of walls to connect the levees to the pump stations, which were near the heart of the city.

So the original plan to protect area was scrapped because the intersts of special interest groups took precidence over protecting the people and the city. In addition to leaving the canals open, the levees were designed for flooding from rainfall, not from storm surge.

Resources and attention of the public and the leaders in New Orleans were directed to rainfall flooding. Although rainfall flooding is a great hazard, it cannot match the devastation from tidal flooding. Sadly, this fact was emphatically proven by Hurricane Katrina. In effect, the Katrina event was a compromise to failure. The compromise to satisfy special interest groups led to a weakened system that destroyed a city, a city that misplaced its trust in a government that would not cater to special interest but would do its job for the greater good.
--snip--
One of the most inaccurate statements is that the levees failed.

In fact, even the poorest levees in New Orleans held the water back until there was overtopping. Even with the overtopping, only the levees along the MRGO had a large amount of levee destroyed. Seven miles were lost out of a 14-mile segment. In all other areas, most of the damage was associated with floodwalls and other non-levee flood-protection structures.

Prior to Katrina, if a levee held the water back until it reached the top of the levee, it was successful. If the water overtopped the levee, this was not considered a failure. It was understood the levee encountered a condition beyond the design of the levee. In other words, if the water level was higher than the level the levee was designed for, it was not a failure. The levee was considered a failure only if the levee failed before it was overtopped. This condition did not occur for any levees during Hurricane Katrina.

In comparison, the floodwalls along the 17th Street and London Avenue canals failed. These were considered failures because water had not reached the top of the wall before they broke, leading to the flooding of New Orleans proper. Another major problem contributing to the flood was the difficulty in measuring elevation accurately. Although officials were aware of this problem, there was limited money to correct it. Only with the recent development of GPS technology can elevations be determined quickly and inexpensively.

It was actually the floodwalls that failed. The levees held back the water until it reached their tops - the levees were too short! This may likely be due to a design based on flooding from rain ratehr than from storm surge.

The decision to build walls along the drainage canals instead of building gates doomed New Orleans proper. Comparisons between East Jefferson and New Orleans proper make a good distinction. (Emphasis mine)

The levees along Lake Pontchartrain for New Orleans and East Jefferson performed well. These levees were slightly overtopped, but performed well, which resulted in no flooding directly from the lake.

Those levees were attached to the walls at the 17th Street canal and London Avenue canal because the city did not move its pumps to the lake. With the pump stations at the lake, the canals would have been closed by gates that would have stopped the waters of Katrina. Those floodwalls failed with the water two feet from the top. Those failures allowed for scour holes through the system, which allowed floodwaters into New Orleans proper for over three days. Eighty percent of New Orleans flooded to a 4½-foot elevation due to these wall failures.

In contrast, East Jefferson suffered much less flooding because its side of the 17th Street Canal floodwall did not fail and there were no other canals open to the lake. The majority of the flooding occurred because there was no pumping of rainfall and storm surge entering through the pump stations. Once the water level receded from Lake Pontchartrain, the flooding through the pump station stopped. There were no scoured holes to continue to allow floodwaters in the system like there were in New Orleans proper.

So the barriers were not designed as they should have been in the first place. What is being done now to make certain that properly designed levees are in place when the next storm does come ashore in New Orleans?

Rebuilding New Orleans Infastructure(CBS Evening News)

The overhauled protection system will battle future hurricane flooding in three ways: first, with barriers to block the primary paths that storm surge can enter the city - from Lake Ponchartrain, the Mississippi River, and Lake Borgne.

Part of what the Corps of Engineers is doing is building their lines of defense as far away from the city of New Orleans as possible. The billion-dollar surge barrier is being constructed 12 miles from downtown New Orleans and 9 miles from the Lower Ninth Ward.

Along with blocking storm surge, the Corps has fortified the levees that failed in Katrina. They're building massive new levees that are anchored more than 100 feet below ground - and tall enough not to be overtopped by storm surge.

"We are raising, strengthening, improving the levee systems that were in place," said Col. Robert Sinkler Commander, Hurricane Protection Office. "So we went from something that had an elevation of 14 feet around St. Bernard Parish to something that is an elevation of 32 ft."

Finally, the Corps is storm-proofing existing pumping stations and building the largest new flood pump in the world - to quickly blast out any water that gets into the city.

Some residents, especially some in the Lower 9th Ward, are understandably skeptical. The fact that the levees will be over twice as high and anchored in a manner that they will hold against a storm surge is at least part of the right solution. The Army Corps has a plan that is not "more of the same". The new system has to be environmentally sound, but not be subject to uninformed special interests that compromise the protection of the city.

After seeing the destruction that nature caused 5 years ago, I'd like to think that putting a proper protection system in place will and is actually happening this time so that New Orleans can be prepared for the next big storm.

Tropical Storm Lionrock heads towards South China

2010-08-29T07:56:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Lionrock formed yesterday in the South China Sea. It is heading towards Guandong province in the southeast portion of the country east of Hong Kong. The storm is slowly strengthening but is expected to remain a tropical storm.

Tropical storm "Lionrock" to bring heavy rains, strong winds to southern China (Xinhua)

BEIJING, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) -- Tropical storm "Lionrock" would bring gusty winds and heavy rainfalls to China's southern provinces as it moves north, the national meteorological agency warned on Sunday.

The storm which started Sunday morning in the South China Sea, was moving northeast at a speed of 5 to 10 kilometers per hour, said the National Meteorological Center (NMC) in a statement on its website.

Its center was located about 410 kilometers south of Shantou City, Guangdong Province, at 11 a.m. Sunday. The storm would get stronger as it moved towards the east coast of Guangdong and western Fujian Province, said local weather authorities of Fujian.

East Guangdong and the coastal region of Fujian would see strong winds in the next 24 hours with wind speeds up to 10.8 to 17.1 meters per second, said the center.

In preparation, the Hong Kong Observatory issued Storm Signal #1 recommending that people prepare for rough weather. These preparations include: cleaning drains and gutters of debris and checking that all hinges, doors and windows are in good conditions. The observatory also recommends refraining from water activity due to increasing swells.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin (Hong Kong Observatory)

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 9 p.m., Tropical Storm Lionrock was estimated to be about 280 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 20.6 degrees north 116.2 degrees east) and is forecast to move north or north-northeast at about 8 kilometres per hour in the general direction of the coast of Guangdong.

Tropical Storm Lionrock has displayed a north-northeast movement over the past few hours. On its present track, local winds will not strengthen significantly overnight. The chance of Strong Wind Signal No. 3 before 6 o'clock tomorrow morning is not high.

Tropical Storm 08W grows; heading near Shanghai

2010-08-29T07:44:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm 08W formed in the Western Pacific yesterday with 40 MPH sustained winds. The storm now has 45 MPG winds and will steadily increase in strenth over the next several days.

The storm track has this system passing over Okinawa on Tuesday afternoon, most likely as a Category 1 typhoon.

Tropical Storm 08W, #3 (Stars & Stripes)

7:45 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 29: Parameters remain similar to earlier reports. Tropical Storm 08W is forecast to rumble 20 miles south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, at 4 a.m. Tuesday.

Damaging winds of 58 mph or greater forecast to start around 3 a.m. Tuesday, with sustained 52-mph winds and 75-mph gusts expected between 3 and 6 a.m. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.

The currect forecast track shows that tropical storm 8 will brush against the China coast at Shanghai as a Category 2 typhoon. It will then curve towards the northeast and head towards North Korea.

Hurricane spawning machine in high gear

2010-08-28T20:31:00.003-05:00

Atlantic tropical satellite image courtesy of The Weather Channel

The above image is a snapshot of the Atlantic Tropical Satellite for August 28, 2010. The second half of August is when tropical activity increases substantially in the Atlantic basin reaching peak activity in the beginning of September.

As the graphic shows, activity is in high gear. Hurricane Danielle is a now a Category 2 storm and is slowly weakening as she moves towards the north. Tropical Storm Earl is following behind. Earl now has sustained winds of 65 MPH and moving westward. Further development is likely and Earl is expected to reach hurricane status in the next few days. Earl's track is more to the west than Danielle's was and Earl is expected to skirt along the Windward Islands and have a greater impact on Bermuda.

Not far behind Earl is a tropical wave that the NHC has projected has an 80% of developing into a tropical depression in the next 24 hours and then to become Tropical Storm Fiona. This storm has the potential of affecting the US east coast or maybe even the Gulf depending on the steering currents. Right now Fiona-to-be is expected to turn north in the Caribbean but this is at least a week away and a lot can happen by then.

Finally, if you look at the Satellite image, a new tropical wave is forming and just now moving off the coast of Africa. The next couple of days will tell if this develops into anything. The fact that there are so many systems so close together and that the systems are developing every few days shows that the activity is high. I suspect that September will be a rough ride.

Tropical Depression Frank is dissipating

2010-08-28T14:20:00.003-05:00

The tropical cyclone named Frank reach hurricane status for a couple of days and then died down to a tropical storm and to a tropical depression. The storm is now a non-tropical low. The remnants of Frank are slowly drifting towards the southern tip of Baja California as the storm dissipates. Model instensity forecast graph from Weather Underground shows the system to maintain average 25 MPH winds for the next few days.

Frank a non tropical remnant low pressure area (AccuWeather)

As of 11 a.m. PDT on Saturday, Frank has been declared a remnant low. The weak low pressure area was located at latitude 20.8 N and longitude 112.3 W, or approximately 210 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving north at 6 mph. Winds in and around the low pressure area are estimated to be around 35 mph and should continue to diminsh.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms clustered a few hundred miles southeast of Acapulco Mexico is moving west northwest at 10-15 mph.

Hurricane Danielle explodes to Cat 4 sotrm

2010-08-27T10:49:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Danielle exploded yesterday from a Category 1 hurricane with 85 MPH sustained winds to a Category 4 major hurricane with wind speeds of 135 MPH. Danielle had bee struggling to maintains her hurricane status due to some wind shear that was she was battling. Once the shear died down, Danielle was able to flourish.

Hurricane Danielle Strengthens (Wall Street Journal)

MIAMI—Hurricane Danielle has become a Category 4 storm far out over the Atlantic.

Danielle's maximum sustained winds increased Friday to nearly 135 miles per hour, with some additional strengthening possible.

Danielle is located 545 miles southeast of Bermuda, and is forecast to pass east of that island on Saturday night.

Danielle's track has turned significantly and the hurricane will pass well to the east of Bermuda. The island will still be affected with heavy winds and rain but will at least miss a direct hit by the center of the storm.

Because of Danielles size, rip currents will likely be felt along the eastern seaboard from South Carolina to New Jersey and potentially further north.

Riptides could be headed to Jersey Shore because of Hurricane Danielle (Star Ledger)

Hurricane Danielle is expected to churn up the surf along the Jersey Shore even though it's far out in the Atlantic.

The waves could increase the risk of rip currents.

The National Weather Service says swells kicked up by the storm should begin to arrive along the coast early Saturday.

Forecasters say the surf could perhaps remain rough into the middle of next week.

Beachgoers are advised to swim only on beaches where lifeguards are stationed.

Danielle is forecast to pass well east of Bermuda on Saturday night.

Being safe at the Jersey Shore. How to survive a rip tide.

Frank becomes a hurricane

2010-08-25T21:21:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Frank grew from a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific. Frank has been moving parallel to the Mexican coast for about the past week. High surf and rain have hit the coastline as the storm made its trek to the north.

Hurricane Frank 2010 Forms Off Mexico Coast (Huffington Post)

In the Pacific, Hurricane Frank developed off Mexico's coast. Frank has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 kph). The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Wednesday that Frank could get stronger as it moves away from Mexico's southwestern coast. Frank is located about 240 miles (385 kilometers) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and is moving west-northwest.

Frank has not made landfall but has brushed against the coast a few times causing very heavy rain and flooding. In Mexico's souther state of Oaxaca, the rain resulting in landslides resulting in four deaths. Heavy rain caused flooding that washed out roads and damaged bridges in as many as 100 towns.

Hurricane Frank heads out to Pacific, leaves four dead in Mexico (Sinchew)

MIAMI, Wednesday 25 August 2010 (AFP) - Tropical Storm Frank strengthened into the third Pacific hurricane of the 2010 season on Wednesday, veering west after soaking Mexico's southern coast, where heavy rains left four dead.

Hurricane Frank packed winds of up to 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour, making it a Category One hurricane on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, the US National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory.

The storm was about 240 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving west-northwest at 13 miles per hour, the NHC reported.

It was not expected to make landfall, although it will pass near tiny Socorro Island on Friday.

At least four people died, including two buried in a landslide, and two were missing after heavy rains unleashed by Frank in Mexico's southern Oaxaca state, local officials said Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Earl forms; follows Hurricane Danielle

2010-08-25T21:03:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Earl formed in the North Atlantic today. The storm currently has 40 MPH sustained winds and is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days. Earl is expected to follow a track similar to Hurricane Danielle but may swing a little more to the west before heading north.

Earl Joins Danielle in the Atlantic (AccuWeather)

Earl has finally been dubbed a tropical storm and will follow nearly in the footsteps of Hurricane Danielle posing a threat for Bermuda only several days later.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists have been monitoring the system's energetic development since it crossed Africa.

Earl is expected to slowly gain strength the next few days and is forecast to reach hurricane status over the weekend northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Earl will assume nearly the same shaped track. However, the system is centered farther south than Danielle and could track farther to the west as a result, according to tropical weather expert Dan Kottlowski.

Earl will likely become a Cat 1 hurricane by the weekend and may even grow to Category 2 storm before reaching Bermuda.

Danielle has struggled with some wind shear that has reduced her intensity from a Cat 2 to currently a Cat 1 with 85 MPH sustained winds. Overnight, Danielle actually dropped back to a Tropical Storm briefly with winds as low as 70 MPH but was quickly back to hurricane strength by morning.

As Danielle moves northwards towards Bermuda, it is expected to strengthen and may even become a major Cat 3 hurricane before reaching the island. Danielle's track has shifted to the east slightly placing Bermuda solidly within the cone of uncertainty (See Weather Channel graphic on previous post).

Earl's track could potentially past east of Bermuda a few days after Danielle passes either over or slightly west of Bermuda. This would give Bermuda a pretty heavy ONE-TWO punch by the middle of next week.

Hurricane Danielle grows to Category 2

2010-08-24T04:58:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Danielle intensified steadily becoming a full hurricane Monday and has continued to grow reaching Category 2 status by Tuesday morning with 100 MPH sustained winds. The hurricane is strengthening quickly and further intensification is expected.

Hurricane Danielle Strengthens to Category 2 Storm in Atlantic (SF Gate)

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Danielle, the second of the season, strengthened to a Category 2 storm over the Atlantic Ocean and was forecast to remain at sea for at least five days, the National Hurricane Center said.

Danielle's maximum sustained winds accelerated to 100 miles (160 kilometers) an hour from 85 mph six hours earlier, the center said in an advisory posted on its website at about 4:40 a.m. Miami time. The storm system was 1,110 miles east of the Caribbean's Lesser Antilles islands, moving west at 20 mph.

"Additional strengthening is forecast, and Danielle could become a major hurricane by early Wednesday," the center said.

Should Danielle strengthen as forecast, it will become the strongest storm so far of the June 1 to Nov. 30 season. Hurricane Alex also reached Category 2 status, and had 105-mph winds when it hit northeastern Mexico on Jun. 20. Storms are deemed major when they're rated Category 3 and above on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of at least 110 mph.

Storm Track

Hurricane Danielle is not expected to affect the US east coast as the projected storm track shows the storm heading to the north throught eh Atlantic. The western edge of the projected path could bring Danielle in range of Bermuda causing some issues with heavy rain and wind there.

Graphic Courtesy of The Weather Channel

Tropical Storm Mindulle skirts past China - heads for Vietnam

2010-08-24T04:30:00.002-05:00

Tropical Storm Mindulle slipped past China's southern most province of Hainan yesterday and continued on its track towards northern Vietnam. Mindulle is a strong tropical storm with windspeed of 108 km/hr (67.5 MPH). The storm is moving fast across the South China Sea at 20 km/hr bringing heavy and prolonged rain with it as it approaches land. It is expected to slam into Vietnam's north central coast Tuesday evening.

Mindulle to slam into central coast (VietnamNet Bridge)

The eye of storm, the third of the year, is expected to fall at 18.3 degrees north and 107.0 degrees east, or about 80km north-east of the coastal provinces from Nghe An to Quang Binh, at 1pm today with winds gusting to 133kph at its centre.

It is forecast to gain strength as it travels west-northwest during the next 24 hours at 15kph.

The storm delivered rain to central provinces yesterday with average falls of between 20mm-60mm; the heaviest was 297mm in Quang Ngai Province.

--snip--

Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai yesterday asked the administrators of potentially vulnerable localities to take drastic measures to cope with Storm Mindulle.

The storm was moving quickly and was accompanied by prolonged and heavy rain, he said.

This meant the priority should be to ensure the soundness of reservoirs and the evacuation of people in flash-flood and landslide-prone zones as well as aquaculture farms.

Hai, who was speaking at a meeting of the National Flood and Storm Prevention and Control Committee and relevant ministries and agencies, said the hydrometeorological forecast centre must closely monitor the storm’s progress and provide updated information to allow a prompt response.

Evacuations have already begun with as many as 74,000 people being evacuated from coastal villages.

Vietnam braces for tropical storm Mindulle, evacuating tens of thousands of people(Canadian Press)

HANOI, Vietnam — A disaster official says Vietnam has begun evacuating tens of thousands of people from high-risk areas as tropical storm Mindulle churns toward the country's north-central coast.

Weather forecasters said Mindulle strengthened as it moved across the South China Sea packing winds of 104 kilometres per hour (65 mph).

The tropical storm, the third to hit the country this year, was expected to slam into the coast later Tuesday in the provinces of Nghe An and Thanh Hoa.

Mindulle, whose name means Dandilion in Korean, has already brought heavy rain and flooding to the region and is causing severe flooding in northern Thailand.

Storm Mindulle brings torrential rain(Bangkok Post)

Tropical storm Mindulle has brought torrential rain causing flooding in many provinces in the North and Northeast.

A Meteorological Department's advirosy issued at 4am on Tuesday said tropical storm Mindulle was centred about 150km east of Donghoi, Vietnam, with maximum sustained wind of 95km per hour.

The storm was expected to move west-northwest about 18km per hour and make landfall over upper Vietnam on Tuesday night.

It was causing an active monsoon trough across northern and northeastern Thailand, bringing torrential rain.

People along hill slopes and waterways in the North, Northeast and East are warned of possible flash floods during this period.

Heavy rain was reported in many provinces in the Northeast on Tuesday morning.