Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Tropical Deression TWO-E could become Hurricane Barbara

Update II: Barbara has weakened into tropical depression Barbara. Currently moving due east at 2 knots Barbara is expected to strengthen as the storm track again moves north towards land. If no further build-up occurs then the storm will pose no real threat and will become just a local rainmaker.

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Barbara is now here - and may become the first hurricane of 2007 by the weekend. The really interesting aspect of this development is how the predicted storm track has moved. At the bottom of this post I have the original predicted storm track posted at the bottom of this post. At that time the storm was expected to move parallel to the Mexican coast.

As of this evening (5/30/07), the 5-day cone of probability is showing the track of the storm moving towards due north. If the storm track continues to move in a more northerly direction then there is a good chance that Hurricane Barbara will end up in the Bay of Campeche.

We will be watching this puppy because as those of us who live on the Gulf Coast know, once a storm enters the Gulf it can go anywhere. Barbara could be a weather maker for us here in Texas yet.

Tropical depression TWO-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. The National Hurricane Center is currently predicting this storm will eventually grow to hurricane strength. Rain from this storm will likely affect the southwestern coast of Mexico if the track follows the prediction as shown on the graphic to the right. Note that as of Tuesday evening the graph shows the storm moving south and strengthening to tropical storm status and then making a U-turn and heading north as it increases in strength to a low scale hurricane. This is a live graphic so the image will be updated regularly.

I have been watching the storm development in the eastern Pacific this year for two primary reasons - 1) because of the low activity last year allowed me to appreciate the storms that form in the eastern Pacific and 2) because I have noticed that these storms frequently do cross the isthmus of Central America or even Mexico and affect the US from the desert southwest to as far east as Louisiana.

The media have essentially ignored this possibility in past. Several instances of storms that pumped heavy moisture into the southwest US or actually made landfall along the Texas coast that were discounted until suddenly it was upon us.

TD TWO-E is very close to the coast and with the slight movement predicted the potential exists for the steering currents to shift bringing the rain towards us. By Wednesday or Thursday this will be Tropical Storm Barbara. A slight turn to the north or north-west could bring hurricane Barbara ashore. Even if the storm doesn't make landfall, the stronger NE quadrant will be affecting the coast with the potential for some damage and threats to human life.

Meanwhile Topical Depression Alvin continues to move slowly west over open water.

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