Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Possible storm development

UPDATE: Click the link above for updated information on the tropical low coming across Florida. The breaking weather video shows the potential for development of these storms.

The Low is moving to the west across Florida even though the bulk of the rain is currently heading towards Georgia and South Carolina. According to the video, this system is likely to enter the Gulf by Thursday, become a tropical storm by Friday and possibly a hurricane by the weekend. The target area is still too large to make an accurate prediction - stretching from Mobile Bay, AL to Port Lavaca, TX. However, the most likely scenario is for a Texas landfall.


A large area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic...

northern Bahamas...and the East Coast of Florida is associated with

a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. There are no

signs of organization at this time. However...surface pressures

are gradually falling and environmental conditions appear favorable

for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone to form over the next day

or two...as the disturbance moves westward over Florida and into

the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development...this system will

likely bring showers...squalls...and locally heavy rains over

portion of Florida during the next day or two.
Once this system drifts into the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to develop into a cyclone - either a tropical storm or potentially even a hurricane. The Gulf water is quite warm and we all saw how quickly Hurricane Humberto grew from nothing into a Cat 1 hurricane.


One of the factors affecting the steering currents for this system is a high pressure system located over the southeast US near Louisiana/Mississippi. According to Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU in Houston, if this high pressure moves to the east it could steer the low/tropical system more towards the SE Texas/SW Louisiana region. If the high moves out to the northeast, then the storms may make landfall further to the east - Mississippi/Alabama, even the Florida panhandle.

No development is expected until this system gets into the gulf, but Florida will certainly get some rain from this system.

To be updated as conditions develop -

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