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Saturday, March 20, 2010

Tropical Cylone Ului making landfall

Tropical Cyclone Ului is now in the process of making landfall on the Queensland coast. The eastern edge of the storm is now crossing the coast with light to moderate rainfall. The cyclone has increased to a Category 3 storm over the past 12 hours as the eye of the storm approaches the city of MacKay.
The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is reporting dangerous conditions for the coastal regions as Ului comes ashore as a major cyclone. A tropical cyclone warning is in effect for the coastal regions from Carwell to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden
The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely
between Bowen and Proserpine as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The
cyclone is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 200 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area overnight and early

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon overnight,
then extend to adjacent inland parts during Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence are expected to rise above the highest tide
of the year overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Mar, 2010 6:00 GMT
Tropical Storm ULUI (20P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Lawrence (22.3 S, 149.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
    Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
    Clermount (22.8 S, 147.7 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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