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Monday, August 30, 2010

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane EARL slamming Leeward Islands

Hurricane Earl is slamming into the Leeward and Virgin Islands in the Caribbean this morning with 110 MPH winds and gusts up to 125 MPH .

Damaging hurricane-force winds will blast the Leeward Islands today. The strongest winds will whip over the northernmost islands. The strength of the Earl's winds threaten to cause widespread tree damage and power outages.
 
As the trees fall, additional structural damage and bodily harm may result. Roof damage is the main concern to well-built homes, but poorly-constructed homes may be destroyed or severely damaged.
 
Earl's torrential rain bands will also spread over the Leeward Islands. Several inches of rain will pour down, threatening to cause flooding.
 
Seas surrounding the islands will further heighten as Earl approaches with wave heights reaching 12 to 18 feet on north-facing coastal areas.
The Category 2 storm continues to strengthen in the warm Caribbean waters as windshear is very low. The storm is expected to become a major hurricane within 24 hours and is currently forecast to reach Category 4 status just as it approaches its closest point with the US east coast.

 
N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2010 9:00 GMT
Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Anguilla
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadeloupe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Netherlands Antilles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Kitts and Nevis
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montserrat
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Puerto Rico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Dominica
        probability for TS is 35% currently
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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