### Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane IRENE

Irene has grown into a Category 1 hurricane and has been crossing the Caribbean inflicting damage on many of the islands there. Irenen is currently making landfall on Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic likely by mid day. Forecasts call for Hurricane Irene to increase in strength potentially becoming a major hurricane before striking the southeastern US by mid-week. Sotrm warnings are already in place throughout the Caribbean and for parts of southeastern Florida.

Whether Irene strikes Florida and comes inland or skirts the coast is yet to be determined but it is certain that flooding will be a major concern. Preparations should be underway to evacuate if you live in a flood prone area or to battten down if wind is a major concern.

Irene is the first hurricane to threaten the US coast since 2009 as no storms made landfall last year even though it was a very active season.

Remember the adage: Run from the water; Hide from the wind.

Remember the adage: Run from the water; Hide from the wind.

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N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2011 9:00 GMT

**Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Puerto Rico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

the Virgin Islands

probability for TS is 90% currently

the British Virgin Islands

probability for TS is 85% currently

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Francisco De Macoris (19.3 N, 70.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Santo Domingo (18.5 N, 69.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.5 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

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