Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

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Monday, August 22, 2011

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane IRENE


Irene has grown into a Category 1 hurricane and has been crossing the Caribbean inflicting damage on many of the islands there. Irenen is currently making landfall on Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic likely by mid day. Forecasts call for Hurricane Irene to increase in strength potentially becoming a major hurricane before striking the southeastern US by mid-week. Sotrm warnings are already in place throughout the Caribbean and for parts of southeastern Florida.


Whether Irene strikes Florida and comes inland or skirts the coast is yet to be determined but it is certain that flooding will be a major concern. Preparations should be underway to evacuate if you live in a flood prone area or to battten down if wind is a major concern.


Irene is the first hurricane to threaten the US coast since 2009 as no storms made landfall last year even though it was a very active season.

Remember the adage: Run from the water; Hide from the wind.


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N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2011 9:00 GMT

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Puerto Rico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the Dominican Republic
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 90% currently
the British Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 85% currently
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
the Turks & Caicos Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Francisco De Macoris (19.3 N, 70.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Santo Domingo (18.5 N, 69.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.5 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.


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