NOAA's 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

NOAA’s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an
80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season,
a 15% chance of a near-normal season,
and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes.

The likely range of the ACE index is 135%-205% of the median. This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year’s record season.

The predicted 2006 activity strongly reflects an expected continuation of conditions associated with the multi-decadal signal,which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. These conditions include considerably warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs), lower wind shear, reduced sea level pressure, and a more conducive structure of the African easterly jet.

An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

The full NOAA prediction report can be read by clicking the title of this post.