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Sunday, February 11, 2007

There is a 10% chance that the global alarmists are wrong

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Summary for Policy Makers for its not yet complete 2007 report. The summary states that global warming is very likely caused by humans. The "Very Likely" designation translates to a 90% confidence level. The media takes a statement like this and claims that there is essentially no chance that humans are not the cause of climate change. The fact is that a 10% likelihood that a scientific theory did not occur as postulated is huge.

The leading alternate theory of the cause for global warming, that the intensity of the Sun is the real culprit, appears to be a more likely factor. Over 10 years ago, Henrik Svensmark recognized that global temperature variations corresponded to the intensity of the Sun or more specifically, the ability for cosmic radiation to reach the Earth.

Mr Svensmark claims that the calculations used to make the prediction of )a 4.5 C temperature increase) largely overlooked the effect of cosmic rays on cloud cover and the temperature rise due to human activity may be much smaller.

It took over a year before his findings were published, in large part because it is not politically correct. The interesting thing is that current climate behavior corresponds to the behavior predicted by Svensmark's theory.

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