The Tropics are Heating Up

Tropical depression 4 has formed in the eastern Atlantic. We will be watching this one closely, folks. If you recall in my previous post that the computer models show this coming straight into the Caribbean. It has been described as "vigorous" from the start and with the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico could become a major storm if it stays on a westerly heading.

Right now it ic clearly too early to tell. The storm coulfd track north up the Eastern Seaboard or stay west and come into the Gulf. We won;t know until next week sometime.

In the meantime we have had several tropical waves in the Caribbean forming and breaking apart. The Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule chart (at the top of this blog) shows at the moment that I an typing this, another tropical wave with the potential to form into a depression. This one is around the Yucatan peninsula. The key thing on further development, IMHO, is what the wind shear is doing. The sea surface temperatures are clearly warm enough for further development as long as the straight line winds don't tear the infant storm apart. So far this year that has happened quite a bit.