Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Path and Intensity of Fay uncertain

Fay May Become A Hurricane
Tom Moore, & Tim Ballisty Meteorologists,

The Weather Channel
6:58 p.m. ET 8/19/2008

After making its first U.S. landfall Monday afternoon over Key West, Florida; Tropical Storm Fay made its second landfall near Cape Romano, Florida on Tuesday morning at about 4:45am ET.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central Atlantic coast of Florida. Meanwhile, in preparation for a stalled out tropical system off the northeast Florida coast, a hurricane watch has been posted from Flagler Beach, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

As of 7 pm EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 45 miles south-southwest of Melbourne, Florida. Fay is moving to the north-northeast at just 7 mph. This northward motion is expected to continue through the night as Fay sluggishly crosses the Florida Peninsula. View Fay's projected path.

Currently, even though over land, Fay is holding up quite well with a well-defined depiction on radar. The tropical storm reached its peak intensity and overall best organization over land during the early afternoon hours of Tuesday. With the overall good appearance on satellite and radar, surface observations, and along with Fay's central pressure falling to 986 millibars, the surface winds remain at 65 mph.

At this time, Fay is battering the east-central state of Florida. This portion of the state will continue to experience squally weather with very heavy, flooding tropical downpours accompanied with some minor-to-moderate wind damage. Watch the latest tropical update.

Fay is currently nearly stationary just south of Palm Bay and Orlando with winds still in the 50 - 60 mph range. When she enters the Atlantic, the likelihood of Fay becoming a hurricane is fairly high.
The short of it is that right now there is no telling what Tropical Storm Fay will do over the next 48 hours. Looking at the computer models above, it is possible that Fay could cross into the Atlantic, grow to a Cat 1 hurricane - cross Florida again and reemerge into the Gulf where it could strike the Florida panhandle or drift further west threatening Alabama or Louisiana. Likewise, Fay could come ashore around Savannah and the head toward north Georgia and South Carolina where we really need some heavy steady rain. Right now the models are far too diverse to tell what she will do.

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