2009 Easter Pacific Tropical Season

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season typically begins around mid-May. This year, however, activity has been very light as it has been in the Atlantic basin.

Based on current climate conditions, NOAA is predicting blow normal activity for the eastern Pacific. These conditions include lower than typical ocean surface temperatures and higher than typical wind shear.

The main climate factors influencing this year’s Eastern Pacific outlook are the atmospheric conditions that have decreased hurricane activity over the Eastern Pacific Ocean since 1995 – and the possible development of El Niño.

“We expect either neutral or El Niño conditions this season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “During this low-activity era, neutral conditions increase the chance of a below-normal season, while El Niño increases the chance of a near normal season. If significant El Niño impacts develop, as a few models suggest, we could even see an above-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific region.” (NOAA May 21, 2009)

Looking at some of the maps and widgets in the sidebar, several storms have begun forming but then quickly broke up. Now we are seeing a new storm developing that has a good liklihood of becoming the 1st named storm of the season. I've noticed a train of heavy clouds forming near the west coast of Mexico. Well this afternoon the National Hurricane Center has indicated that these storms have a better than 50% chance of organizing into Tropical Storm Andres.

The normal eastern Pacific season will produce around 16 named storms. So even a light season may have well over a dozen tropical storms or hurricanes associated with it. What we don't know is how many will strike land.

The names for the eastern Pacific for this season are below.