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Friday, August 21, 2009

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane BILL

Hurricane Bill is now a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 105 MPH. Tropical storm force winds will be coming ashore in Bermuda throughout this evening and tonight.

Storm Alert issued at 21 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT
Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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