TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm PATRICIA

Tropical Storm Patricia is bufferring the southern tip of Baja California with 50 MPH winds and rain. Current track projections indicate that she will actually make landfall at the very southern tip of the peninsula before turning sharply to the west. Tropical storm force winds are expected to remain throughout all of Wednesday before this storm degrades to a depression as she heads out into open waters.

Storm Alert issued at 13 Oct, 2009 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PATRICIA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.