Cyclone 22p forms on Australian coast
This morning, local time, this storm moved to slightly off-shore and is organizing and strengthening. Cyclone 22p is expected to be classified as a Category 1 cyclone by this evening.
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin (Bureau of Meteorology)
The tropical low has maintained a well-developed structure during the past
6 hours, with deep convection persisting over a well-defined LLCC. (Low Level Circulation Center) --snip--
Intensification expected in the next 6 to 12 hours as system moves off shore. The broadscale environment remains favourable, with low upper shearand good outflow channels to the south and north of the system.
The current consensus track keeps the system over water for about 12 hoursbefore it adopts a westerly track and moves inland.
The storm track shows that this cyclone will remain close to shore so any development should be minimal.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory (Weather Underground)
The LLCC is located just off the coast of northern Australia in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The initial intensity was based on pgtw, knes, and adrm Dvorak estimates of 35 knots. Upper level analysis shows the system islocated beneath the subtropical ridge axis with good radial outflowand low vertical wind shear.
Tc 22p is currently located in a weak steering environment and is slowly tracking southward under the influence of a near equatorial ridge. Tc 22p should begin to turn southwest and westward as a subtropical steering ridge to the south builds in.
As tc 22p continues tracking over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, it is expected to intensify until reaching landby tau 48 and begin dissipating as a significant tropical cycloneafter tau 72.