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Thursday, September 09, 2010

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon MERANTI slamming into Chna

Typhoon Meranti has been upgraded to a Category 1 typhoon today and is currently making landfall along the China coast. Meranti brought heavy rain to Taiwan yesteray inundating villages in southeastern Taiwan with 10 - 20 inches of rain.
 
The latest Pacific tropical cyclone, Meranti, has poured torrential rain over southern Taiwan as it twirls toward southeastern China as a typhoon.
 
As of Thursday morning, EDT, rainfall of 10 to 20 inches had already inundated southeastern Taiwan, with Taitung having accumulated at least 13.0 inches.
 
Meanwhile, Meranti, now upgraded to a typhoon, was centered about 200 miles southwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Having highest sustained winds of 75 mph, Meranti was spinning northward at 10 to 12 mph.
 
Meranti was on target for a landfall upon southeastern China near Quanzhou, in Fujian, by early Friday morning, EDT.
Multiple sources Thursday indicated that five villages in Taiwan were evacuated in reaction to the excessive rainfall and runoff.
On Thursday Taiwan issued a land and sea warning as the northeast quantrant of the typhoon brushed against the southwest corner of the island.
 
TAIPEI, Thursday 9 September 2010 (AFP) - Taiwan Thursday issued a warning against tropical storm Meranti, urging residents to take precautions as the weather system could bring severe downpours as well as flooding and landslides.
 
The warning was especially for residents of Penghu, an island group in the middle of the Taiwan Strait, and Kinmen, another archipelago near southeast China's Fujian province.
 
The two island groups might be hit by the storm if it continued on its current track, the Central Weather Bureau said.
At 03:00 GMT, Meranti was about 180 kilometres (110 miles) west of the southern-most tip of Taiwan, the bureau said.
 
It was moving north-northwest at speed of 15 kilometres per hour and may make landfall in Fujian Friday, according to the bureau.
As the alert below states, Typhoon Meranti is currently making landfall in Fujian province near Quanzhou as a Cat 1 typhoon.
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Sep, 2010 18:00 GMT
 
Typhoon MERANTI (11W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
        probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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