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Monday, October 11, 2010

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm PAULA

Tropical Storm Paula sprang to life today along the Caribbean coast of Central America. Development had been slow first due to wind shear and then from the interaction with land, but the storm was able to gain enough strength to become a strong tropical storm with 65 MPH sustained winds. As the alert from Tropical Storm Risk suggests, there is a reasonable probability that Paula will strengthen to a hurricane before striking land.
 
The 16th named tropical system of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has formed and has strengthened. Tropical Storm Paula is churning in the Caribbean and is slowly drifting northwestward.
 
As of 8 p.m. EDT Monday, Paula was located about 105 miles east of Isla de Guanaja, Honduras, moving to the northwest at 9 mph with sustained winds at 65 mph. Central pressure fell to 998 mb.
 
The Mexican government has issued a hurricane warning for the coast from Punta Gruesa northward to Cancún, including Cozumel. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Mexican coast from Chetumal northward to south of Punta Gruesa.
 
A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the coast of Honduras from Limón eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border, including the Bay Islands.

Paula is expected to reach the Yucatan by mid-week and either dissipate or curve towards Cuba and Florida. A high pressure system is located over Haiti and the Dominican Republic which is expected to steer Paula in a loop to the northeast, raking Central American coast and then heading towards Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

 
N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2010 21:00 GMT
Tropical Storm PAULA (AL18) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Honduras
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Cuba
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Puerto Lempira (15.3 N, 83.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% currently
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Belize
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roatan (16.3 N, 86.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
    Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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