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Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Himalayan Glaciers not retreating

VK Raina, a leading glaciologist in India feels that a negligible amount of research is being conducted on glaciers in the Himalayans and as a result, no conclusions can be drawn as to the effect of glacial melting as a result of global warming. As a matter of fact,
Raina told the Hindustan Times that out of 9,575 glaciers in India, till date, research has been conducted only on about 50. Nearly 200 years data has shown that nothing abnormal has occurred in any of these glaciers.

It is simple. The issue of glacial retreat is being sensationalized by a few individuals, the septuagenarian Raina claimed. Throwing a gauntlet to the alarmist, he said the issue should be debated threadbare before drawing a conclusion.
This is the real point that has to be accepted by the proponents of all sides of the debate: That we need to discuss, debate and argue all of the factors that lead to climate change and determine what the science points to as the statistically most likely cause of these changes. From what I have read climate change and global warming looks to be mostly natural.

Could there be a human-induced component? I can concede that this might be possible but I do not accept that it is only cause or even the most likely cause. Until the alarmists discuss the effects of the intensity of the Sun, cosmic radiation, variability and uncertainty in measurements and natural warming from the Little Ice Age, they have very little credibility in my mind. That any suggestion of a non-human cause for climate change is met with scorn and belittlement is further evidence that the alarmist's position is weak at best.

Neither are Greenland's glaciers
A U.S. study suggests two of Greenland's largest glaciers are melting at variable rates and not at an increasing trend.
In 2004 and 2005, the glaciers melted at a very high rate dumping almost twice the usual amount of water into the sea but then the rate of melting settled down to normal levels. The study concludes:
"Our main point is that the behavior of these glaciers can change a lot from year to year, so we can't assume to know the future behavior from short records of recent changes," he said. "Future warming may lead to rapid pulses of retreat and increased discharge rather than a long, steady drawdown."
It seems to me that the conclusion can also be drawn that while occasional rapid increases in melting may occur, typical melting rates are just as likely and are no cause for alarm. Of course that doesn't play as well in the MSM.


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