Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Friday, July 04, 2008

Tropical Storm Bertha

I have been in the process of relocating to North Georgia and the internet connection is not working in my apartment. Last night I learned about Tropical Storm Bertha. At that time the prediction was that this storm will curve north in the central Atlantic and not be a concern.

Tonight I see that that may not be the case. Both Storm Tracker (graphic above) and Weather Underground are showing this storm to be coming in a direction that brings it into the Caribbean or even towards the US east coast. Of five conputer trackign models, three show a track that points towards teh coast between Florida and North Carolina and two show the storm curving north.

AccuWeather is showing the most likely path being for Bertha to curve north but a possibility that she will continue on into the southern US.

This storm is too weak and too far away to lose any sleep over right now.
The latest window of movement prepared by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center shows the storm making a gradual turn toward the northwest through the central Atlantic. If so, it will be one of those no harm, no foul storms of which there are many.

One scenario that is still quite feasible is that Bertha will not
be captured by the jet stream and will continue westward, passing just north of the Windward Island early next week. This more southern track would put the Southeast coast of the United States in harm's way.

The least likely scenario for the storm is a path across the Caribbean and then into the Gulf of Mexico. As a matter of fact, any path that would take the storm into the Gulf is very unlikely.

Presenting all this in a probability format, there is a 60 percent chance the storm will track northwest and stay away from the East Coast, a 35 percent chance the system
will continue toward the west-northwest, and a 5 percent chance it will somehow find a way into the Gulf of Mexico.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet

At this time it is too early to tell, although if this storm follows me into north Georgia and ends the drought there then I want my share of the credit :-) In all honesty, this is the 2nd year of Drought for N. Georgia and a low intensity tropical storm would be a good remedy to help fill up some of the low lakes.


This report is interesting. AccuWeather shows that the warm waters that could drive intensification are located near the southern US and Caribbean Sea. If the storm path takes it towards the south then the storm could intensify as well. Weather Channel is saying that the stronger the storm ill cause the path to veer more to the north and away from the US and is the most likely path. This one will be interesting to watch, especially so early in the season.

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