Bill is starting to curve to the north

Hurricane Bill has been steadily growing from a tropical storm, is now a hurricane and is expected to become a major storm by the middle of the week with winds as high as 115 - 120 MPH. The models have all been in good agreement regarding Bill's wind speeds and so far they seem to be fairly accurate.

Less so with regard to the predicted track. Earlier in the weekend, strom track predictions could be extrapolated to the southeastern US. As the weekend has progressed, that storm track has moved more to the north.

There is much more scatter in the models and of course too early to predict landfall. Indications at this time are that Bill will more of a threat to the mid to northern US coast or possibly to Bermuda.

Changes in the steering currents show that a high pressure system located off the Carolina coasts is moving more towards the east and shrinking in size (compare the two upper level air flow maps below).

This will provide Bill with clear path northward in the Atlantic unless the high either increases in size or moves closer to the coast. If either of these happen, then the potential for Bill to move more west and into the southern states or Bahamas will be more likely.

At this time we need to watch and prepare for the potential of landfall. If Bill does hit, he will hit hard. These predictions indicate that the chances may be less but as of now, no bets are on the table.

Hat tip to Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com for the graphics used in this post. Please visit his site and support his fine work.