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Sunday, August 16, 2009

Tropical Storm Ana track shifts south

Update: Ana has weakened to a tropical depression Sunday afternoon. Ana will cross the Leeward Islands early tomorrow morning. Interaction with these islands may continue to tear what remains of Ana apart such that by the time she gets into the Gulf of Mexico there will be nothing left to reorganize. Considering that she has dissipated and come to life twice so far and may do so again in the Caribbean, there are no guarantees.

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Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle to remain intact. Tropical reports show the stom is very small and is not very well organized. Windspeed forecasts preddice that Ana could weaken, sustain current status or strengthen so many factors are in play here.

Dry air and wind shear continue to tear at Ana but this system is moving steadily into very warm water. Depending on hiw the wind dynamics change, intensification is possible.

Soon, land will play a factor. The projected path has shifted to the ssouth compared to yesterday's projections. By late Monday morning Ana will cross the Leeward Islands and by the night make landfall on the eastern end of the Dominican Republic on the island of Hispanola. The center of the storm track probabilities show Ana travelling over land for the next few days crossing Hispanola throughout the day Tuesday. Then Ana will cross the length of Cuba.

The current storm path brings Ana into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression. This concerns me because the water temperatures in the Gulf are in the mid 80's which are certainly warm enough to promote intensification. We ened to watch Ana's progress throughout this week and begin making preparations in the event she reorganizes in the Gulf on Friday.

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