Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Atlantic Basin becoming more unsettled

Two areas just west of Africa are showing the potential for development into storms that may affect the US along either the east coast or Caribbean sometime next week.

Of course we've mentioned Tropical Depresion #2. This system has remained just below tropical storm strength. It is my opinion that it will likely stay at that level. AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi showed how this storm is preceeded by a lot of dry air which is likely to pull any punch that this system may have.

The Weather Channel is predicting that Tropical Depression #2 will become Tropical Storm Ana but when I look at the model runs (see link below) the graphics still show it as a depression later in the week. The question is if it will develop enough to become a named system before weakening.

Just behind Depression #2 is another area of disturbed weather. This area is much larger and right now has a moderate chance of developing further. Looking at the Atlantic Graphical Weather Outlook at the top of this blog, it is clear to me that the amount of clouds associated with this system is much more than we have seen with depression #2.

There are also some tropical waves in the eastern Caribbean that seem to show a slight tendency to develop and then break apart. This time of the year, the Caribbean is cerrtainly hot enough for a storm to develop but I do not know what the wind shear is in this area. As the area becomes more unsettled we will have to watch for further development. Something could come up suddenly.

Tropical outlook: Pay attention to this (The Weather Channel)

Tropical Depression 2 is slowly but surely gaining organization in the eastern Atlantic and is likely on its way to becoming Tropical Storm Ana.

Meanwhile, what is that big thunderstorm complex to its right? It's a well-developed tropical low that has now emerged off the coast of Africa. It definitely bears watching.
Model run after model run of several models continues to develop this tropical low into an eventual tropical depression, tropical storm and then hurricane.

Where Will These Tropical Systems Go? (AccuWeather)

Where will all these tropical systems go? The two located in the eastern Atlantic have a date with the Eastern Seaboard later next week. The first (should be named Ana) could stay far enough out so as not to become a serious problem, but watch out for that trailing system. Latest computer projections show that disturbance becoming a strong hurricane and impacting the entire East Coast from Florida to Maine during the weekend of Aug. 22.

2010 Atlantic Hurricanes (courtesy of

NOAA Gulf of Mexico Radar (courtesy of

NOAA West Atlantic & Caribbean Radar (courtesy of

NOAA East Atlantic Radar (courtesy of