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Monday, September 28, 2009

Typhoon Ketsana poised to strike Vietnam

Ketsana Set to Strike Vietnam as a Typhoon (AccuWeather)


Ketsana will strike with hurricane winds along the coast of central Vietnam. Landfall off the South China Sea will happen not far from Hue between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, local time. High winds will dissipate rather quickly, but the heavy rain threat will linger in northern Vietnam into Wednesday, local time.

Destructive winds and flooding rain will have the greatest impact in the area of landfall and for some distance farther north. Here, highest rainfall will be 10-15 inches. This rainfall, in light of other heavy rain outbursts during the month, will pose a serious threat of both major flooding and mudslides.
Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2009 18:00 GMT

Typhoon KETSANA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China
probability for TS is 75% currently

Cambodia
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Thailand
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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