Typhoon Ketsana poised to strike Vietnam
Ketsana Set to Strike Vietnam as a Typhoon (AccuWeather)
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
Ketsana will strike with hurricane winds along the coast of central Vietnam. Landfall off the South China Sea will happen not far from Hue between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, local time. High winds will dissipate rather quickly, but the heavy rain threat will linger in northern Vietnam into Wednesday, local time.
Destructive winds and flooding rain will have the greatest impact in the area of landfall and for some distance farther north. Here, highest rainfall will be 10-15 inches. This rainfall, in light of other heavy rain outbursts during the month, will pose a serious threat of both major flooding and mudslides.
Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2009 18:00 GMT
Typhoon KETSANA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for TS is 75% currently
probability for TS is 75% currently
Cambodia
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Thailand
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
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