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Sunday, September 27, 2009

Another typhoon headed for Philippines next weekend

Tropical Depression 18w is expected to intensify to a tropical storm within 12 hours and is expected to pass Guam within 48 hours according to Tropical Storm Risk. Sustained winds at that time are expected to reach 50 knots and continue growing. This will become Tropical Storm (Typhoon) Parma in the Western Pacific and TS Pedring locally in the Philippines.

Of further concern is that 18w is following a path similar to Ketsana and is headed for the northern Philippines potentially as a Level 1 typhoon by next weekend. A typhoon coming into Luzon so soon after the devestation caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana is not a good thing.



Tropical Depression 18w Discussion: (Weather Underground)

In the near term, TD 18w is expected to track generally to the west to west-northwestward and intensify slowly. Due to the current intensity, available model guidance is sparse, with ngps, WBAR andGFDN being the only available numerical vortex trackers. These trackers indicate a track to the west-northwest towards Guam. The extended fields available from ECMWF (no vortex tracker available from either ECMWF or ukmo) indicates a more southerly track is possible, passing south of (but close to) Guam.

In the extended (period) 18w is expected to track towards the northern Philippines, reaching typhoon intensity (within) 72 (hours). The system is currently not expected to rapidly intensify as it approaches the Philippines, although this possibility should not be discounted as the eastern Philippine Sea is a known region of rapid
intensification. During the extended period, TD 18w is not expected to recurve as the steering ridge is anticipated to remain strong and zonal.


The short of this is that 18W will pass over or slightly to the south of Guam and will then head towards the Philippines. Intensification by the end of next week is likely as 18W approaches the norther island of Luzon.

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