Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

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Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Tropical Storm Henri likely to break up. Will it reform in the Caribbean?

Tropical Storm Henri formed in the western Atlantic yesterday as a low level tropical storm and is heading towards the west northwest with winds of 45 MPH. Henri is expected to decrease in intensity over the next 24 to 48 hours. Looking at the layout of this storm, that would not be surprising. Henri has an exposed center with all of the clouds and rain concentrated on his northwest side.

Forecasts do show Henri moving in a westerly direction into the Caribbean as a tropical depression.

The surprize may come if Henri comes back to life in a few days. It may be too early to predict Henri's demise, but I am going to go out on a limb here an speculate that not only will this storm break apart but it may also reform and strengthen.

If Henri stays intact all the way into the southern Caribbean Sea, I think there is a possibility that he may strengthen back into a tropical storm again.

Looking at the wind shear map (courtesy of http://www.spaghettimodels.com/) it seems that the conditions will be suitable for development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is low or decreasing (as indicated by the dark blue) and surface water temperatures are still quite warm. Henri's track takes him right over warm water and calm winds. Just right for storm formation.


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