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Friday, October 02, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon PARMA

Typhoon Parma is bearing doen on the northern Philippine island of Luzon just a week after this area was inundated with intense rain and heavy flooding from then Tropical Storm Ketsana. The center of Parma's storm track will pass to the north of the region heaviest hit last week but the entire island region is still dealing with the effects of the flooding.
 
Parma has sustained winds of 140 MPH and and may gain super typhoon status again. Major winds will be seen across the northern coast of Luzon today and Saturday (local time).

Dangerous Typhoon Parma Targets Philippines (AcuuWeather)
Parma threatens to bring extremely strong winds and flooding rain. Residents are already evacuating the east coast of Luzon.

Fortunately, the east coast of Luzon is not heavily populated. Even though destructive winds may only blast a small part of the Philippines, flooding rain will encompass a much larger area. Hence, there is a threat to many lives.

Parma is expected to slow down upon reaching the northeastern part of Luzon Saturday, local time. As a result, heavy rainfall from Parma could continue most of the weekend.
Storm Alert issued at 2 Oct, 2009 6:00 GMT
 
Typhoon PARMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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