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Sunday, November 08, 2009

Hurricane IDA is crossing the Yucatan Channel

Overnight IDA increased back to hurricane strength as expected and has continued to increase in intensity. Current official sustained windspeed is 90 MPH but some estimates indicate that the windspeed may be as high as 95 MPH which is the upper limit of a category 1 storm. Hurricane hunter aircraft will be sent out this morning to determine if Ida has reached Cat 2 staus yet or not.

Ida is currently passing between the western tip of Cuba and Cancun on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan peninsula. Towns on both sides of the channel are currently seeing tropical storm force winds and heavy rain.

This storm is expected to slowly decrease in strength as it enters and crosses the Gulf of Mexico , but since it has grown so strong, Ida will retain much of her hurricane strength while battling cooler waters and increasing windshear.

Storm Alert issued at 8 Nov, 2009 9:00 GMT
Hurricane IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cuba
probability for TS is 95% currently
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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