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Saturday, November 14, 2009

Is IDA coming back?

Is Ida going to become the "Storm That Never Ends?

AccuWeather is speculating that the remnants of Hurricane Ida may circulate back around in the Atlantic throughtout this coming week and drive up the east coast again next week.

Will Ida Return Next Week? (AccuWeather)

Ida will depart the East Coast later this weekend, but will that be the last time the United States deals with the storm? There are a few indications that the answer may be no.

Saturday into Tuesday, Ida's remains will slowly creep southeastward through the Atlantic Ocean. Beyond that point, it cannot be totally ruled out that Ida gets steered back westward and poses another threat to the East Coast.

Graphic courtesy of AccuWeather.

A forecast this far in advance is admittedly uncertain. So how could the low pressure center that was Ida come back to strike the east coast again? The graphic below shows the overall upper level air circulation pattern. The graphic itself is from Spaghettimodels.com. Your humble hurricane hobbiest added the indicators designating the three high pressure systems and the possible pathway that Ida could take.

Ida's low will be moving to the east today out into the ocean. High pressure coming east from Ohio and another high in the northern Gulf of Mexico will help to drive the low away from the coast this weekend. The canadian high that has helped fuel the Nor'easter along with Ida will prevent the low from drifting northward.

There is also a clockwise circulation in the Atlantic (I assume this is a high pressure system as well but I did not see that indicated on any maps). The low of Ida could become caught in the circulation and pulled towards the south. Then as the week continues, the same circulation could drive this low back around into the Bahamas and then north towards the Carolinas.

We will have to watch this system to see what happens as the week progresses. Looking at the sea surface temperatures, the water near Florida and the Bahamas is warm enough for tropical development but the wind shear is increasing from the Bahamas all the way north to the mid-Atlantic states. Wind shear will make development unlikely.

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