Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

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Monday, November 09, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane IDA down to Cat 1

Hurricane Ida has decreased in strength to a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the gulf coast. A hurricane watch has been set up from Grand Island, La to Pascagoula, Miss and a hurricane warning is in effect from Pascagoula to Indian Pass Fl.
 
No evacuations are being planned for this storm, however, people in low lying areas are being asked to be vigilant. Heavy rains and flooding is expected with this storm. Louisiana has declared a state of emergency as a precaution so that help can be mobilized as quickly as it is needed. People who live in FEMA trailers from Hurricane Katrina are beign asked to find other shelter.
 
A flash flood warning has been issued for much of Georgia and heavy rains are expected beginning late tonight and may continue through tomorrow evening. 1 - 6 inches are predicted throughout the entire Atlanta metro area with the heaviest rain expected south of the city.
The low pressure system that has been coming on shore in Texas continues to bring rain to south Texas and south western Louisiana. This system is now a non tropical surface low which is affecting areas as far east as New Orleans. Areas to the east of New Orleans will see rain from Hurricane Ida. Outer rain bands are already reaching parts of the Florida peninsula. Additionally a front is coming down from the north. When all three of these system combine, Ida will lose her tropical characteristics but will continue to maintain a strong punch with tropical storm force winds being felt as for north as central Georgia.
 
Sources: Weather Channel, WSB Radio

Storm Alert issued at 9 Nov, 2009 9:00 GMT
 
Hurricane IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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