Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

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Sunday, November 08, 2009

Models now showing Hurricane Ida making landfall in US

The computer models have all converged significantly compared earlier forecasts. The indications now are that Ida will indeed come ashore along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Once ashore then Ida will make a sharp right hook and follow the Florida coastline or possibly curve into south Georgia. The centerline of the forecast track shows the storm staying close to coast and eventually exiting into the Atlantic as a depression.


Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

The expectations are still that Ida will become extra-tropical as it makes landfall. In this case, Ida will be an extra-tropical hurricane or tropical storm because the strongest winds will be located far from the center of the circulation. It appears that the wind strength of this storm will remain fairly high as Ida travels across the Florida panhandle.

Heavy rain from Ida will generate a high potential for flooding along the northern gulf coast from eastern Louisiana all the way across Florida. Late Monday and Tuesday will be heavy rain days for the northern and eastern gulf shores.

People Who Live Along the Gulf Coast Threatened by Ida (AccuWeather)

Ida strengthened into a category 1 hurricane late on Saturday and is expected to strengthen into a category 2 storm today as it moves close to the eastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Residents and tourists in Cancun and Cozumel, Mexico, as well as residents of western Cuba will be threatened by the storm's fury today. On Monday, the hurricane will move quickly northward in the Gulf of Mexico, likely maintaining strength as a category 1 hurricane.

Ida's Flooding and Coastal Threats in the U.S.

Coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana through the western panhandle of Florida could all be battered by Ida on Monday.

People who live in New Orleans, La., Gulfport, Miss., Mobile, Ala. and Pensacola, Fla., could all be threatened by the hurricane's heavy rain, high winds and battering waves early this upcoming week.

Three to five inches of rain will inundate some communities in this zone on Monday through Monday night, creating a serious risk for flooding. Pounding waves will add to the flood threat along the coast.



The storm track later in the week is not as certain. Right now the projection is that Ida will move due east across the length of the Florida panhandle and exit in the Atlantic. She may curve north into Georgia as well. However, some of the models are still showing the potential for Ida to curve back towards the south and either re-enter the Gulf of Mexico after making landfall or travelling down the length of the Florida peninsula before falling apart.

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