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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

TSR Storm Alert - Severe Cyclonic Storm LAILA

Tropical cyclone 1B in the north Indian Ocean has grown into a severe tropical cyclone.Severe cyclone Lila has sustained winds of 75 MPH with gusts of 90 MPH and is heading for the Indian coast at approximately 6 - 8 MPH. 



N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 May, 2010 6:00 GMT
 
Severe Cyclonic Storm LAILA (01B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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