First Atlantic Depression Forms

The first tropical depression in the Atlantic Basin developed today in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Honduras. The system is expected to intensify to tropical storm strength overnight and remain as a tropical storm as it makes landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Graphic courtesy of Weather Underground

The storm is expected to cross the Yucatan and enter the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday night. The water temperature in the gulf is very warm. This high temperature will promote the development of this system back into a tropical storm once in the gulf unless wind shear is strong enough to prevent formation.

Atlantic Has Its First Tropical Depression of 2010 Season (AccuWeather)

Tropical Depression One is forecast by AccuWeather.com meteorologists to soon become a tropical storm, and then possibly a hurricane over the next several days. The depression is currently located 355 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The first name on the list of Atlantic tropical cyclones this season is "Alex."

The depression destined to become Alex will drift across the Yucatan, Mexico this weekend, producing heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms. There is an elevated risk of flash flooding and mudslides over a broad area of Central America as a result of the system drifting slowly to the northwest.

A window of movement ranging from Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico exists for possible storm tracks next week, as the system is expected to emerge on the northwestern side of the Yucatan Peninsula later Sunday.

Waters are very warm in the western Caribbean and in much of the Gulf of Mexico. While the system will battle with the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, strengthening prior to and after engaging the land mass is inevitable.

The storm track once the storm enters the gulf is still unknown with the potential for the system to track from Mexico to Alabama as described in our earlier update. The further west this storm tracks, the better situation with regard to the oil spill in the gulf.

Tropical Storm Alex may be a warning shot or it may be a direct hit on the oil spill. Industry and the federal government need to stop all of the fingerpointing and excuses and get the leak under control immediately because it is a certainty that Alex will not be the only storm to affect the Gulf of Mexico this year. That my friends is a GAR-ON-TEE!