Storm system shifts to the south; likely to develop

We have been watching a tropical wave for the past couple of weeks that initially developed not far from the coast of Africa and had made its way to the eastern edges of the Caribbean. This system has shown signs of development and was threatening Haiti with the potential for heavy rain. Well essentially this system has dissipated.

Now a new system has developed that the National Hurricane Center has designated Invest 93 which is located to the south of where Invest 92 broke apart. The good news is that this system appears to be tracking further south and appears likely to miss Haiti.
Graphic Courtesy of http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

The bad news is that the tracking for this system shows the potential for the storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, the conditions are such that further development into a named tropical storm is possible. Water temperatures are quite high in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, as the graphic from Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground shows, the region that this system is tracking through is expected to have low wind shear.

As we have mentioned in the past, the combination of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear provides the foundation for the development of tropical systems.

If this system does develop and enter the eastern Gulf, there could be some real trouble. The interaction of a tropical storm and the oil from the BP gusher will not be pretty. It is time for all the parties involved to stop pointing fingers, get this leak stopped and get the marshes cleaned up.