Invest 92 still a threat in the Atlantic

The tropical disturbance in the Atlantic appeared to be dissipating late last night and early this morning. Now the National Hurricane Center has increased the liklihood of Invest 92 organizing back to 20%.

Regardless if I-92 organizes or not, the projected path of this system will take these storms right over the island of Hispanola, potentially dumping very heavy rain onto earlquake ravaged Haiti.

As the chart below shows, the sea surface temepratures in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico is very warm. Weather Underground is predicting that this system still has the potential to become a tropical storm in 3-1/2 to 4 days. In my un-educated opinion if this system remains even somewhat organized and the windshear becomes or remains low, then this will indeed develop into a named storm.

Invest 92 has certainly demonstrated its staying power. Water temperatures are warm enough to fuel a storm so now upper level straight-line wind appears to be the only variable that remains in deciding whether this system becomes the first named storm of 2010.

Graphics courtesy of Weather Underground