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Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Phet growing larger

Tropical Cyclone Phet located in the Arabian Sea near the North Indian ocean has remained essentially stationary over the past 24 hours. Due to the warm surface water temperatures in this area, Phet has intensified to a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with sustained winds of 120 km/hr and gusts up to 144 km/hr.

The current location and track of this storm is bringing it very close to the coast of Oman before it turns suddenly to the northeast and gains in speed. The closer to the Omani coast the storm gets, the more intense it is expected to become eventually reaching as high as 105 kts (195 km/hr).

Source:Tropical Storm Risk

Once Tropical Cyclone Phet turns northeast, it is expected to move very rapidly towards the Pakistani coast passing very close to the cities of Karachi and Hyderabad and into the Indian state of Gujarat.

Cyclone Phet seen soaking arid north-west by weekend (Hindu Business Line)

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that ‘Phet' would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly to northerly direction for the next 24 hours.

It is forecast to re-curve under the influence of opposing flows from an approaching westerly trough (associated with western disturbances over northwest India) and guided northeast to cross Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.

--snip--

The London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group said that Karachi and Shahbandar in Pakistan; and Jakhar, Mandvi, Sonmiani, Morbi and Jamnagar in Gujarat could be brought under the fury of the storm of category-2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows ‘Phet' settling into a perch over north Gujarat and adjoining south-west Rajasthan 24 hours into landfall on Friday/Saturday but without losing much intensity.

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