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Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Disturbed Weather harasses the Carolinas



An area of disturbed weather has shown signs of developing throughout the week. One week before the official start of Hurricane Season, the non-tropical low that formed in the North Atlantic showed signs of organization including the development of a circular center.

By Monday night, the circulation began to break apart but the rain and wind associated with this disturbance continues to move slowly towards the US Eastern Coast. Indications from spaghetti models are that the storm will make its closest approach today (Wednesday) bringing rain to the area around the North Carolina/South Carolina state line. Winds associated with this system are tropical storm force winds with a sustained windspeed of 45 MPH.

The system will loop around and head out to sea during the second half of the week and I suspect will be well away from the coast in time for the holiday weekend.

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (Weather Underground)

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it.

--snip--

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea.

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