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Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Super Cyclonic Storm PHET intensifies further

Tropical Cyclone Phet has intensified further to a very intense Category 4 super cyclone. The track of this cyclone has been shifting steadily to the west and is now poised to make landfall on the coast of Oman. The cyclone may decrease in strength as it approaches landfall but it will liely still be a hurricane force cyclone when it does strike toe Omani coast.
 
Tropical Storm Risk (below) is predicting tropical storm force winds within 12 hours and Category 1 force or higher within 24 hours. Current indications are that Phet would actually come ashore in Oman before turning torwards teh northeast and heading towards Pakistan.
 
Phet would steer clear of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of all seaborne oil trade passes, or about 17 million barrels per day (bpd).
 
Phet was a Category 3 storm on Wednesday, with sustained winds of over 130 mph. It was expected to become a Category 5 storm, the most powerful with winds of over 156 mph, in the next 24 hours.
 
Phet would lash Oman's eastern region shores with hurricane-strength winds through Friday before moving northeast. It was expected to weaken before coming ashore just south of Karachi as a Category 3 storm on Sunday.
Once Phet does turn to the north the storm is expected to pick up speed as it moves towards Pakistan and India. The storm is not expected to gain strength once it reemerges in the water.
 
The Met office said the cyclone was advancing at a pace of six nautical miles and may turn towards Pakistan, the channel reported. The government has issued a warning to citizens against visiting the seaside to avoid any dangerous occurrence.

The administrative department issued warning through loud speakers around the seaside and police had been deputed to stop people from heading to the coastline, the channel reported.

Intensity: According to the warning, the cyclone is likely to intensify further during the next 24 hours. The cyclone is likely to move in a north-westerly direction close to the Oman coast and is then expected to re-curve in a north-easterly direction towards the Pakistani coastal areas.

The cyclone intensified into a severe cyclonic storm and moved in a north-westerly direction during the last 12 hours with a speed of six knots.

Under the influence of this cyclone widespread heavy rains associated with dust and thunderstorms are expected in the coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan. Sea conditions along the Sindh-Makran coast are also expected to be rough during the next 48 hours. The Met office has warned the fishermen in Sindh and Balochistan in high waters to immediately return to the coast.


N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 2 Jun, 2010 18:00 GMT
 
Super Cyclonic Storm PHET (03A) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Oman
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ras ad Daqm (19.7 N, 57.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Mursays (20.4 N, 58.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ghanah (18.7 N, 56.7 E)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
    Al Ashkhirah (21.9 N, 59.6 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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