Caribbean activity grows suddenly
As the models below show, this system is most likely heading for the central Texas Coast anywhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. All of the models are converged fairly nicely towards this area. As the system approaches the coast, the breadth of the tracks will narrow down quite a bit.
When the system enters the Gulf, the warm waters will likely promote organization. The Weatehr Channel is saying that formation is favorable. Weatehr Underground intensity models are indicating that this sysytem could become a tropical storm but at this time it most likely will not get any stronger than that. Of course the storm is still over 72 hours out.
Tropical activity suddenly developed in the Caribbean Sea in the same area where Hurricane Alex developed a couple of weeks ago. Invest 96 came together Sunday afternoon and quickly developed. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 50% chance of this system organizing into a depression or named storm within the next 48 hours.
Computer models are indicating an almost identical pathway as that taken by Alex with the system crossing the Yucatan peninsula and then tracking towards the west northwest across the Gulf of Mexico towards the Texas Mexico border.
The expected track appears to be well converged over the next few days with the system passing well north of Belize where Alex passed as a tropical storm. Once the storm re-emerges in the Gulf then the spread of potential tracks diverges significantly with a spread from central Mexico to south Texas (sound familiar??)
Tropical Deja Vu in the Caribbean, Southwest Gulf? (AccuWeather)
Could this be tropical deja vu? There is a possibility of another tropical event in areas recently hit by Alex in the Caribbean and southwest Gulf of Mexico.
Over the holiday weekend, a large area of showers and thunderstorms was becoming better organized and seems to be the new prime contender for the next Atlantic tropical depression.
The next named storm on the list in the Atlantic 2010 season is Bonnie.
As of Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorms were grouping in a somewhat circular motion over the west-central Caribbean.
The area is around the same spot where Alex first formed about a week ago.
Interestingly, steering currents could guide this system along on a similar path to that of Alex, if it develops.
A graphic of the upper level air currents shows that circulation around a high pressure system in the western Atlantic and another over the southeastern US is essentially creating a conveyor of sorts that will bring Invest 96 to the north northwest and then make a left turn towards the western gulf near Brownsville, TX.
Graphics courtesy of http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
Disturbance in the GulfThe NHC is also keeping an eye on an area just south of Louisiana in the area where the oil slick is located. The air in this region is very unstable due to the passage of Hurricane Alex through the Gulf last week. The clockwise high pressure circulation over the southeastern US is inducing a counter clockwise circulation within this unstable air.
It is possible that this system may develop into another tropical depression, but not likely due to strong wind shear in the region. Dry air is also entering the area from the north which further reduces the potential for formation. However, at this time, the NHC is still projecting a 10 - 20% chance of this system organizing.
Graphic courtesy of AccuWeather