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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Hurricane ALEX is making landfall (TSR Alert)

Hurricane Alex is in te process of coming ashore in northern Mexico. Although the eye of the storm will strike the Mexican coast, the strongest effects of Alex will be felt from Mexico north through Brownsville and all along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The size of this storm is so bug that all of the Gulf coast is feeling at least an increase in wave action and tropical storm force winds.

Hurricane Alex currently has sustained winds of 90 MPH with gusts of 95 MPH making Alex a strong category 1 storm. It is still possible that Alex may strengthen further before completely making landfall.
The active radar track shows that the leading edges of the storm are already on shore providing very heavy rain along the coast.



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N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 30 Jun, 2010 21:00 GMT


Hurricane ALEX (AL01) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Fernando (24.8 N, 98.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brownsville (25.9 N, 97.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Armstrong (26.9 N, 97.8 W)
probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Ciudad Victoria (23.7 N, 99.1 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Monterrey (25.7 N, 100.3 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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