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Saturday, June 26, 2010

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ALEX makes landfall in Belize

Tropical Storm Alex is currently making landfall on the coast of Belize. Heavy rain is falling throughout Belize, in northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
Tropical Storm Public Advisory (Weather Underground)
at 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 17.4 north...longitude 88.1 west. Alex is
moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next two days. On this
track...Alex will move inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
this evening...move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and
Sunday...and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday afternoon
or Sunday evening.
Alex currently has winds of 65 MPH which will likely diminish due to interaction with land. However, once the storm re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, Alex is expected to strengthenback into a tropical storm and possibly into a low grade hurricane.
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 26 Jun, 2010 21:00 GMT
 
Tropical Storm ALEX (AL01) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Belize
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Mexico
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Belize City (17.5 N, 88.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Aldama (23.0 N, 98.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 69 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 69 hours
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Honduras
        probability for TS is 50% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roatan (16.3 N, 86.5 W)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Belmopan (17.1 N, 88.8 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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