Hurricane Paula threatens Yucatan

Graphic courtesy of spaghetti models.com

Hurricane Paula grew rather rapidly from a tropical storm yesterday to a low level hurricane with 75 MPH sustained winds and gusts up to 90 MPH. Paula proximity to land indicates that this storm will likely remain a Category 1 storm, but there is at least one model projecting the possibility that she may grow stronger and may even reach Category 2 status before touching the eastern coast of the peninsula sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Paula Circling Between Mexico and Cuba(National Underwriter Property And Casualty Insurance News)

Hurricane Paula is now spinning between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Cuba, and is expected to stay there into the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The 16th named storm and the ninth hurricane of the 2010 hurricane season is currently a weak Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.

The NHC is reporting warm ocean temperatures that are conducive to hurricane intensification, but the atmospheric environment is not favorable for storm strengthening. The storm could gain strength within the next couple of days, followed by a steady weakening, the NHC said.

Within 12 hours of becoming a tropical storm, Paula strengthened to hurricane status, said modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS).

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Right now Paula is about 190 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The storm is expected to turn north-northeast today, followed by a turn to the north on Oct. 13 to approach the Yucatan Peninsula, possibly as a stronger storm

The primary concern is that Paula will bring 3 - 6 inches of heavy rain to an area that was drenched by Hurricane Karl just last month. The heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and landslides.

The Mexican coast from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche is under a hurricane warning. A hurricane warning is in place for all of Cozumel as well. The rest of the coastline south to Belize and northward to San Filipe is under a tropical storm warning.