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Friday, August 22, 2008

Fay strikes a third time and finally starts moving

After spending a Day just off the eastern Florida coast, Tropical Storm Fay finally decided to come ashore landfalling for the third time just south of Jacksonville, Fl. Fay has been sitting on the Atlantic coast for a few days just dumping water on most of the state for the past five.

What I find rather amazing with Fay is that she does not seem to be weakening at all. When Fay first hit the Florida Keys, she had 60 MPH winds. Those winds stayed just as strong as she came ashore in southern Florida despite predictions that she might intensify to a small grade hurricane. Then as she slowly meandered across the state, the windspeed stayed at 60 mph. Storms are supposed to lose their strength while over land by Fay had other ideas.



Now Fay is heading across northern Florida towards the Alabama coast. The projected storm track ranges from southern Alabama to just into the Gulf of Mexico. I am predicting that Fay will not weaken much and will remain a tropical storm for the next 24 hours as she approaches the coast.

The high pressure system that is holding Fay to the south seems to be moving slowly towards the east (at least according to the graphic from AccuWeather). If this is true then the potential for increased rain and winds to drift north is a real possibility. Some remnants of Fay are expected to reach the Atlanta area this weekend.

The computer models have so much uncertainty that there is still no convergence on a single path. Four of the models even show Fay taking a sharp right turn and moving into northern Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee.


The only sure thing is that Fay will be with us for a long time.

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