Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

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Monday, July 13, 2009

Carlos weakens, Another storm develops

UPDATE: OK, now Carlos is back to a hurricane again. I guess the winds are not as strong as were expected. Earlier in the week, the projection was that teh strong winds and cooling waters would cause Carlos to break up so once I saw this storm drop to a tropical storm I thought that was it. Apparently not. The interesting thing is that the storm track has been steady with a constant heading due west. This takes Carlos south of the Big Island whether he is still a hurricane or if he drops back to a tropical storm again.

The next storm following Carlos is also projected to follow the same path. The NHC is still showing a better than 50% chance that this area of disturbed weather will develop into a named storm.

Hurricane Carlos degraded fairly quickly from a Category 2 hurricane to a tropical storm Sunday. Current projections indicate that Carlos will remain a tropical storm for the next five days. As a tropical storm Carlos will pass south of the Hawaiian Islands. I do not believe that there is any potential for strengthening due to cooler sea waters in this region and the potential for shearing winds.


Along the Mexican coast, another area of disturbed weather is showing sogns of developing into a tropical system within the next 24 - 48 hours. The Hational Hurricane Center is predicting a greater than 50% liklihood that this new storm will form into a named storm. Computer models from Weather Underground are showing that tis storm will likely follow in the path of Tropical Storm Carlos at least for the next few days. This system will have to be watched to see if it will develop into a tropical storm or a hurricane.


Finally, Tropical Depression six in the western Pacific crossed Taiwan yesterday and has made landfall along the Chinese coast. This depression has winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 kts and is moving northward over land. This system is expected to break apart and is no longer being tracked by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

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