Tropical Storm Carlos formed yesterday...intensification continuing
(July 11, 2009)—Tropical Storm Carlos continued to churn Saturday in the eastern Pacific Ocean and is expected to reach hurricane strength at some point over the weekend, forecasters said.
Saturday morning, the storm was about 970 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving toward the west at about 10 miles per hour with sustained winds near 65 miles per hour.
Tropical force winds extended outward 70 miles from the center of the storm. (KWTX)
Tropical Storm Carlos strengthens, should Hawaii be concerned? (Examiner.com)
Carlos' predicted path right now has the storm heading out to sea. With warm sea temperatures and low wind shear, if Carlos continues on a westerly path, then Hawaii could be threatened by the end of the week. A shift in the storm track to the northwest by mid-week would allow Carlos to avert the islands but it is too early to tell which way Carlos will go.
The extended forecast charts a path for Carlos that has it approaching east of the Hawaiian islands perhaps mid to late next week. Current model trends have been to slowly push the storm more to a northwesterly track that ought to veer the storm up and away from Hawaii.
This is subject to some change as upper level wind patterns may begin shearing apart the storm and/or nudging its path northward as the storm begins to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures. This will rob the storm of its warm-core low pressure "fuel".
Its still far too early to say if Carlos will pose any real threat to Hawaii by late next week but that being said, folks with travel plans to the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so will probably want to keep an eye on Carlos until a clearer picture of its long term forecast becomes available. (Examiner)