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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Hurricane Bill staying on course - now a major storm

So far all of the models are showing that Hurricane Bill will continue on a west northwest course for the remainder of the night and then turn towards the north tomorrow. Weather Underground has a new animated graphic that verifies the models.





As these graphics clearly show, so far the actual track of this hurricane is staying on the northern edge of the models shown. Tomorrow we will see if Bill actually does turn to the north as predicted.

If Bill turns as expected then he should pass well to the north of any of the Leeward Islands. If he continues to the west north-west, then people in the Bahamas will need to prepare to receive some effect from at least the outer bands (this is my speculation).

NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft have confirmed that Hurricane Bill is now a major cat 3 storm with sustained winds of 125 MPH.

Public Service Advisory as of 8:30 pm AST (courtesy of Weatehr Underground)

...Bill becomes a major hurricane...
Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter plane indicate that Bill has
strengthened and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph...205 km/hr. Bill a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. A complete advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

Kimberlain/Pasch

Hurricane Bill advisory number 14...corrected
500 PM AST Tue Aug 18 2009
Corrected to change word hunger to hunter

...Bill approaching major hurricane status...

interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Bill.

For storm information specific to your area outside of the United
States...please monitor products issued by your National
meteorological service.

At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Hurricane Bill was located by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 16.6 north...longitude 52.2 west or about 635 miles...1025 km...east of the Leeward Islands.

Bill is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. A west-northwest motion is expected to continue tonight...followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On this track...the core of Bill will be passing well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Wednesday and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts. Bill is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and Bill is expected to become a major hurricane tonight or Wednesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km.

The minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 962 mb...28.41 inches.

...Summary of 500 PM AST information...
location...16.6n 52.2w maximum sustained winds...110 mph present movement...west-northwest or 290 degrees at 16 mph minimum central pressure...962 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/cangialosi

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