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Saturday, August 01, 2009

Tropical Storm Lana forms in the Pacific

Yesterday afternoon, tropical weather inthe Pacific was upgraded to Tropical Storm Lana. This storm is heading west and is expected to pass south of Hawaii creating very high surf on the Islands south shores.

Weather system southeast of Hilo upgraded to tropical storm Lana (Honolulu Advertizer)

If the storm continues on its current path, Lana should pass well below Hawaii. A five-day track puts the storm at Johnston Atoll on Monday.

The models are showing that this storm will continue south of the islands due to a high pressure system north of the storm path steering Lana to the west. If this system weakens, then the storm could move north enough to pass over at least a few islands.

Tropical Storm Lana nearing Hawaii (Examiner)

The storm is continuing on its expected path, generally west-northwest which will take it well south of the Hawaiian Islands however still close enough to kick up big waves near the south shores of the Big Inland, Maui and Oahu. Breezy conditions can be expected across the Big Island as well as Lana passes by to the south Saturday evening.

The long term forecast for the Hawaiian Islands maintains the storm will stay south of the area and gradually weaken as upper level wind shear increases by early next week.

However the model consensus over the last few runs has been to shift the storm a little further north. One model (BAMD) remains the outlier with a path that would take a weakening tropical storm directly over the Hawaiian Islands.

The information I am seeing indicates that if Lana stays south of the Islands, then the potential exists for a slight strengthening, possibly reaching hurricane strength before weakening and dissipating. If or as Lana moves towards the north, then the liklihood is that she will steadily weaken becoming a very low intensity storm or depression before hitting any land.

Tropical Storm Lana could be a hurricane tomorrow(Honolulu Star Bulletin)

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