### TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane BILL

Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT

**Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

St. Pierre and Miquelon

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours

Bermuda

probability for TS is 55% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours

St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

**Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

the United States

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours

Ireland

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)

probability for TS is 50% currently

Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours

Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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