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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon MIRINAE

Mirinae is closing in on Luzon Island with the probablilities for landfall increasing significantly.
 
Typhoon 2000 (www.typhoon2000.ph) forecast outlook is as follows:
MIRINAE's forecast outlook remained slightly the same...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon on Saturday. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 180 km. North of Naga City around 11 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass close to Polillo Island around 6 AM Saturday and make landfall between Infanta, Quezon and Baler, Aurora around 9 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Nueva Ecija around 10 AM - passing very close to Cabanatuan City and will move across Tarlac around noontime...and over the Zambales Mountains around 4 PM Saturday. On Sunday, November 01, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea and will make its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. This system will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03.
 
MIRINAE's convective circulation has regenerated and strengthening as it moves closer to Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The outer rainbands of MIRINAE has started to spread slowly across the Bicol Region - deteriorating today as the typhoon approaches. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae.
The concerns include flooding, especially in areas both within city limits and surrounding areas that are still flooded from earlier typhoons. Mudslides and flash floods are also anticipated on steep slopes. Possible storm surge flooding of 6 - 8 feet above normal tideas along the coast are expected.

 
Storm Alert from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued at 29 Oct, 2009 18:00 GMT
 
Typhoon MIRINAE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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