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Friday, October 30, 2009

Landfall knocks the wind out of Mirinae

Typhoon Mirinae is not a tropical storm shortly after making landfall on the east coast of central Luzon. Indication is that much of the convection around the storm center has dissipated and while there is still circulation around its center, there is very little likelihood that the storm will strengthen.

Public Advisory from Weather Underground

302100z position near 14.3n 121.0e.
Tropical storm 23w (mirinae), located approximately 90 nm east-southeast of Manila, Philippines has tracked westward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Mirinae has been downgraded to tropical storm strength. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows ts 23w has moved over the eastern coast of Luzon, with a large decrease in convection near the low level circulation center (LLCC). A 301710zAMSR-E pass shows tightly curved banding continuing to wrap into the northern portion of the LLCC, however, deep convection along the eastern half of ts 23w has started to dissipate. Land influences have weakened the system dramatically over the past 06 hours (from85 to 55 knots).

Advisory from Typhoons 2000 on Tropical Storm Mirinae (Santi/23W)

MIRINAE (SANTI) shrinks and weakened into a Tropical Storm while traversing Southern Tagalog Provinces. The weakening core made landfall over Mauban, Quezon around 2 AM...and is now over Tagaytay City...expected to pass over Nasugbu, Batangas in the next few hours. Strong winds and rainfall are just concentrated over Batangas.

Forecast Outlook: The weakening core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected to weaken further as it emerge over the South China Sea later after passing Batangas. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MIRINAE accelerating towards Vietnam while cruising the South China Sea as a strong tropical storm.

It will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday, November 02.


As quickly as this storm is moving, Mirinae may pass over Luzon by late tomorrow which is good news for the region. The last thing that is needed in Manila is a slow moving storm. If Mirinae's forward motion continues at the current pace of 16 knots or faster then the storm will pass quickly over the island and will soon be crossing the South China Sea (Known in Vietnam as the East Sea).

Mirinae is expected to remain at tropical storm strngth as it crosses the East Sea and then dissipate as it makes landfall in southern Vietnam crossing into Cambodia.

Storm Mirinae to head towards south-central region (VOV News)

The south-central coast is bracing itself for tropical storm Mirinae which is moving towards the East Sea and is forecast to hit south-central provinces in a couple of days.

According to the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Centre, in the next 24 hours the storm is forecast to move between west and south-west at a speed of 20-25km/h. It will enter the East Sea on the morning of October 31 and cause rough seas.

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