Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Invest 96 developing in the Gulf

The tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has begun to organize now that it has crossed over the Yucatan Peninsula. The system had remained very unorganized while it was in the Caribbean and as it crossed land. Now that it is int eh warm waters of the Gulf, organization is increasing and formation of a tropical depression or even a tropical storm is likely. The National Hurricane Center has given this system an 80% chance of formation.

UPDATE 1-Tropical depression could form near Yucatan (Reuters)

MEXICO CITY, July 7 (Reuters) - A tropical depression could form over the southern Gulf of Mexico before slamming into the Gulf Coast near the Texas-Mexico border on Thursday, a region still recovering from Hurricane Alex, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a report on Wednesday.

Another serious storm in the Gulf of Mexico could further disrupt efforts to contain BP's (BP.L) massive oil spill off the Louisiana coast.

The NHC gave the low pressure system an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone that could dump heavy rains and bring strong winds to parts of eastern and southern Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days.

"This system has become much better organized this afternoon and evening," the hurricane center said, adding that reconnaissance airplanes researching the weather have information suggesting it could turn into a tropical depression.

All of the tracking models indicate that this system is headed for South Texas ranging from Corpus Christi to Brownsville. The far northeastern corner of Mexico will also be hit with heavy rain and wind. This area was inundated with heavy rain from Hurricane Alex just a week ago with McAllen receiving over 7 and 1/2 inches of rain.

Watching for Bonnie in South Texas, Mexico (AccuWeather)

A week after Hurricane Alex slammed onshore, a new tropical system that is being monitored for development will target South Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thursday.

--snip--

The water in the western Gulf of Mexico is warm enough to support strengthening. Strong winds high in the atmosphere, also known as wind shear, will be absent.

Current forecast models indicate that if a tropical storm does develop, the system will probably press inland too quickly to intensify into a hurricane. South Texas or far northeastern Mexico is where the system should move onshore on Thursday, although perhaps farther north than Alex's landfall.

Even if development does not take place, the system threatens to unleash drenching thunderstorms around and north of its center. Additional rainfall on already soaked South Texas and northeastern Mexico could lead to new flooding problems.

For now it appears the heaviest rain would fall along the middle Texas coast, due to the lopsided nature of the system at this time.
This biggest concern is flooding due to the heavy rain and flooding caused by Alex. Resevoirs in South Texas are full from the rain from last week's hurricane and the water is already being drained through the Rio Grande resulting in some flooding. Further heavy rain will add to the overflow.

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